FX168 Financial News Agency (Asia Pacific) reported that the analysis of CryptoQuant, a well-known on-chain institution, showed that Bitcoin has been in a bearish phase since August 27. Gold continues to set new historical highs, while Bitcoin is "deeply decoupled" from gold and is currently more than 20% lower than its historical high a few months ago. Bitcoin's market value to real value ratio (MVRV) is below its 365-day moving average, indicating that prices may adjust further.
In the current risk-averse environment, investors seem to prefer traditional safe-haven assets such as gold rather than Bitcoin.
According to CryptoQuant, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has dropped significantly recently, with gold prices recently hitting new highs above $2,500 per ounce, while Bitcoin prices have been falling and are now more than 20% below their all-time highs above $73,000 set in March.
Source: CryptoQuant
Investors have been buying gold and selling bitcoin, while the U.S. stock market has also struggled, with the S&P 500 down 3.6% since August 30.
Read more: Prepare for a weaker dollar as China continues to secretly build up its gold reserves
The CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has been in a bear market phase since August 27, when Bitcoin was trading at $62,000.
The MVRV ratio has also been below its 365-day moving average since August 26, suggesting that prices could pull back further, CryptoQuant said. The MVRV ratio falling below the moving average was a precursor to the 36% drop in May 2021.
Source: CryptoQuant
CryptoQuant mentioned that the decline in Bitcoin prices was also accompanied by a decline in the U.S. dollar index, another indicator of broader risk aversion and uncertainty.
The U.S. presidential televised debate on Wednesday (September 11) attracted investor interest. Although former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has been courting the support of cryptocurrency voters, he did not mention the cryptocurrency market, which affected the demand for Bitcoin.
Subsequently, US economic data drove Bitcoin price fluctuations, and the market had bet on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.
The annual inflation rate of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August fell from 2.9% in July to 2.5% in August, supporting expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. However, the core inflation rate in August was still 3.2%, dispelling the hope of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Bitcoin responded to this, hitting an intraday low of $55,593 before recovering. Stable core inflation data dampened investor sentiment for the Fed's aggressive policy shift.
According to the Fed Watch tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September fell from 34.0% on September 10 to 15.0% on September 11.
On Wednesday, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw its first outflow of funds in three trading days, reflecting sentiment towards US core inflation data and falling expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
According to Farside Investors data, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin Spot ETF (ARKB) had a net outflow of $54 million, Grayscale Bitcoin Spot ETF (GBTC) had a net outflow of $4.6 million, while Fidelity Bitcoin Spot ETF (FBTC) reported a net inflow of $12.6 million.
Excluding the flow of funds from BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT), US Bitcoin Spot ETFs had a net outflow of $43.9 million, resulting in a loss for Bitcoin. US Bitcoin Spot ETF fund flows affect Bitcoin demand, which in turn affects Bitcoin price trends.
Later Thursday, initial jobless claims and producer prices may further affect people's views on the Fed's interest rate path. Lower producer prices and higher unemployment claims may rekindle hopes of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, potentially pushing Bitcoin to $60,000.
However, if initial unemployment claims unexpectedly surge above 250,000, recession concerns may resurface, adversely affecting Bitcoin demand.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
FXEmpire analyst Bob Mason said Bitcoin is hovering below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming a bearish price signal.
A break above $58,000 could allow bulls to gain momentum on the 200-day and 50-day EMAs. Moreover, a break above the 50-day EMA could support a move towards the $60,365 resistance level.
Conversely, a break below $55,000 could bring the $52,884 support level into play.
With a 14-day RSI reading of 48.23, Bitcoin could fall below $55,000 and then enter the oversold zone.
Source: FXEmpire
DBS is launching over-the-counter cryptocurrency options trading and structured notes for institutional and accredited clients, becoming the first Asian bank to offer products directly linked to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
AnaisGold prices have reached a new high, driven by expected Fed rate cuts and heightened safe-haven demand. While Bitcoin’s role as a safe-haven asset is under scrutiny, its future performance will depend on how it responds to changes in market liquidity.
Xu LinMichael Saylor's software firm MicroStrategy now holds over $14 billion worth of Bitcoin after four years of buying up BTC.
DanteSpot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. saw $39.02 million in inflows, led by Ark’s ARKB fund, as Bitcoin neared $58,000.
Xu LineToro will stop trading most cryptocurrencies for U.S. users as part of a $1.5 million settlement with the SEC. The platform will only offer Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, and Ethereum in the U.S., while its global operations remain largely unaffected.
WeatherlyResidents near Granbury, Texas, are protesting Constellation Energy's plan to build a new power plant due to ongoing noise pollution and health issues from Marathon Digital’s nearby Bitcoin mine. The proposed power plant expansion would significantly increase air pollution, exacerbating local concerns about environmental and health impacts.
AnaisBitcoin has been legal tender in El Salvador for three years, but many consumers are still reluctant to use it. What’s next?
SanyaOn-chain analyst Embers monitored and found that a whale address withdrew 1,000 bitcoins from Binance, equivalent to approximately US$55.02 million.
MiyukiEllipX will comply with the EU’s MiCA regulations, with plans to add fiat services and offer fee cuts for former Mt. Gox users.
Cheng YuanStocks and gold have also outperformed Bitcoin this quarter; JPMorgan strategists warn of the risk of slowing cryptocurrency inflows.
JinseFinanceBlast’s fifth distribution will give away 10 million gold points to Dapps. This is the last gold point distribution before the Blast airdrop on June 26th.
JinseFinanceGolden Finance launches Golden Web3.0 Daily to provide you with the latest and fastest news on games, DeFi, DAO, NFT and Metaverse industries.
JinseFinanceDespite strong performance in the stock and commodity markets, U.S. Treasury yields fell only slightly for the week, reflecting market concerns about headwinds to economic growth. Overall, stock and commodity markets are in good shape, but concerns in the bond market remain.
JinseFinanceGolden Finance launches "Golden Web3.0 Daily" to provide you with the latest and fastest game, DeFi, DAO, NFT and Metaverse industry news.
JinseFinanceNine major themes including decentralization, user experience, modular technology stack, integration of artificial intelligence and blockchain technology, formal verification, NFT, and SNARK deserve investors to pay more attention in 2024.
JinseFinanceJinseFinanceINTERNET CITY, DUBAI, Jun. 15, 2022 – LBank Exchange, a global digital asset trading platform, will list TGK GOLD (TGK) ...
BitcoinistNowadays, Gold and silver are being accepted as tokenized real-world assets by blockchain-based platforms. Blockchain-based digitization has taken currencies online, ...
BitcoinistLaunched in cooperation with ByteTree, the new BOLD ETP by 21Shares comprises 18.5% of BTC and 81.5% of gold at launch.
Cointelegraph