Robert Kiyosaki, the esteemed author of the best-selling personal finance book 'Rich Dad Poor Dad,' has continuously issued warnings about an impending financial crisis in both the United States (US) and globally.
Amidst these concerns, he has boldly stated his confidence in Bitcoin, predicting that it could soar to a staggering price of $350,000 by 25 August 2024.
While acknowledging that this is merely a forecast, Kiyosaki's prediction is rooted in his scepticism towards the current US leadership.
He has criticised President Biden, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, referring to them as "the 3 Stooges in real life" and expressing a firm belief in their lack of competence.
Kiyosaki's bullish stance on Bitcoin is not a new development; he has long advocated for the cryptocurrency as a superior alternative to traditional fiat currencies, touting its properties as hard money.
His continued endorsement of Bitcoin reflects a broader narrative among some investors who view cryptocurrencies as a hedge against potential economic turmoil.
While Kiyosaki concedes that his prediction of Bitcoin reaching $350,000 by late August, might be considered speculative and akin to "suckers bait," he emphasizes that it is not a falsehood, as any forecast about the future cannot be definitively proven wrong.
Nonetheless, the 'Rich Dad Poor Dad' author has expressed his earnest desire for this prediction to materialise.
Kiyosaki has recommended increasing Bitcoin holdings as a protective measure against what he perceives as poor economic management.
Kiyosaki's critique of the US government's fiscal and monetary policies, particularly under the Biden administration, is well-documented.
Despite his long-standing faith in Bitcoin, the author's projection of a $350,000 price target within two months is exceptionally optimistic and appears to be on the far end of bullish sentiment.
For Bitcoin to achieve this valuation by August, it would require an increase of over 380% from its current price of around $71,000.
Despite these ambitious expectations, Kiyosaki remains confident in the explosive growth potential of Bitcoin.
He extends his optimism to other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), stating that he is "quite certain" their values will continue to appreciate.
The author attributes his bullish outlook not solely to the merits of these digital assets but to his scepticism regarding the competence of the current US leadership—President Joe Biden, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell—whom he has pejoratively referred to as "the three stooges in real life."
Kiyosaki's bold prediction has ignited a spectrum of responses within the cryptocurrency community.
Analyst Willy Woo has proposed that while a Bitcoin price of $350,000 is within the realm of statistical possibility by 2025, should monetary debasement accelerate, the likelihood of this occurring in 2024 is considerably slim unless an extraordinary bullish event were to transpire.
Other commentators have voiced scepticism regarding the feasibility of such a projection, arguing that the odds of Bitcoin reaching this price point are exceedingly slim.
To put this prediction into perspective, achieving a price of $350,000 would propel Bitcoin's market capitalisation to $6.9 trillion, surpassing the combined market values of tech titans Apple and Microsoft.
As a long-standing advocate for Bitcoin, Kiyosaki has positioned the cryptocurrency, alongside gold and silver, as essential assets for individuals and entities seeking to weather the anticipated downfall of the US dollar.
Kiyosaki's support for Bitcoin is underscored by his history of making audacious predictions about its price trajectory.
In March, Kiyosaki declared that Bitcoin was "on fire" and forecast its ascent to $300,000, urging investors to move quickly and emphasizing that even a modest investment of $500 could be a prudent starting point.
Prior to this, in February, he anticipated that Bitcoin would breach the $100,000 mark by June, characterising any market dips as opportune moments for acquisition.
At the time, with Bitcoin priced at $52,013, a 92.2% surge would have been required to meet this target.
The absence of a significant Bitcoin event or upgrade that could catalyse a rally robust enough to propel BTC beyond $300,000 in the ensuing two months prompts curiosity about the basis of Kiyosaki's confidence in such a prediction.
Nonetheless, on a practical level, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to experience steady growth, fuelled by demand from long-term holders and high-net-worth investors, as observed by Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant.
Kiyosaki, who has acknowledged ownership of gold and silver mines as well as oil wells, has pointed out a potential drawback: the more these assets are extracted, the more the value of existing holdings is diluted.
This phenomenon, he notes, does not impact the value of Bitcoin.
The author also subscribes to the belief that an economic collapse is forthcoming, partly due to the burgeoning debt of the US.
In his view, gold, silver, and Bitcoin represent safe havens in the event of a stock market crash.
In April, he also endorsed Cathie Wood's Ark Invest prediction of Bitcoin reaching $2.3 million per BTC, expressing his trust in Wood's intelligence and expertise, stating that he believes BTC could attain such value under the right conditions.
Kiyosaki, who positions himself as a finance expert, has a pre-"Rich Dad Poor Dad" financial history that is less than stellar.
Born in Hawaii, Kiyosaki holds a Bachelor of Science degree from the US Merchant Marine Academy but did not complete an MBA program at the University of Hawaii at Hilo.
His entrepreneurial ventures have included several companies that ultimately went bankrupt, and there were periods when he was reportedly homeless and living out of his car during severe financial hardships.
Beyond his checkered professional background, Kiyosaki has faced criticism for the controversial advice he has dispensed during public appearances.
This includes endorsing insider trading, encouraging investors to purchase stocks on margin without sufficient funding, and advising individuals to acquire multiple real estate properties with minimal or no down payment.
Over the years, Kiyosaki has frequently commented on the stock market, typically issuing pessimistic forecasts about the economy and advising his followers to divest from stocks in favor of assets like gold and real estate.
The accuracy of Kiyosaki's predictions has been questioned, with Stanford-trained data scientist Nick Maggiulli highlighting instances where Kiyosaki's calls were off the mark.
Here are a couple of examples of how his predictions crashed and burn or deviated from his speculations:
1) 30 July 2017 (tweet): "Another sign a real estate crash is coming....."
One such instance was Kiyosaki's prediction of a housing market collapse similar to 2008, which was notably incorrect.
He retweeted a zerohedge tweet about a significant increase in Southern California's median home prices, suggesting a looming downturn.
However, in the subsequent 12 months, the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE) rose by 4.9%, the national Case-Shiller Home Price Index grew by 5.7%, and the S&P 500 climbed by 14%.
Contrary to expectations, home prices in the region never dipped below the levels at the time of Kiyosaki's tweet, with a St. Louis Federal Reserve index indicating continuous growth.
2) 17 April 2020 (tweet): "CRASH ONLY BEGINNING: Buffet says 'When tide goes out you see who's been swimming NAKED.' Billions of naked swimmers. SAD."
Another example is Kiyosaki's warning that the stock market crash associated with the COVID-19 pandemic was just beginning, which he posted on Twitter after the S&P 500 had already hit its 2020 lows.
In the year that followed, the S&P 500 surged by an impressive 53.4%.
Embarrassingly, he also, misspelt the last name of Warren Buffett.
3) 28 October 2020 (tweet): "The EVERYTHING CRASH is coming. Since 1987 world has been in EVERYTHING BUBBLE. Now all crashing. Prices of gold silver Bitcoin will crash too. US dollar to rise. Be patient."
Kiyosaki's specific investment advice to buy gold, silver, and the US dollar also proved to be misguided.
In the 12 months after his recommendations, the GLD ETF decreased by 4.6%, the Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) fell by 0.7%, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) rose by 2.2%, the S&P 500 gained 40.5%, and Bitcoin experienced a meteoric rise of 356.8%.
4) 10 December 2023 (tweet): "Get some cash out of banks as you need cash. This may be the start of the biggest crash in history."
Kiyosaki's most recent prediction of an economic collapse has also gotten off to a rocky start, with the S&P 500 increasing by 12.6% since his warning.
Kiyosaki's best-selling book, "Rich Dad Poor Dad," has been a valuable source for many seeking to understand the fundamentals of personal finance, covering aspects such as budgeting, saving, and investing.
However, in recent years, Kiyosaki has garnered more attention as a perennial bear on the stock market and economy rather than as a personal finance authority.
Predicting the timing of bull and bear markets is an elusive feat, even for seasoned traders, yet the S&P 500 has demonstrated remarkable durability over the long term for investors who adopt a buy-and-hold strategy with index funds.
Kiyosaki has been on a decade-long streak of cautioning investors about an impending stock market disaster, beginning in April 2011.
Despite these warnings, the S&P 500 has delivered an impressive total return of 280% since then, calling into question the reliability of Kiyosaki's prognostications.
His history of inaccurate forecasts suggests that his dire predictions about financial assets and the economy should be approached with skepticism and should not prompt hasty portfolio adjustments.
In light of Kiyosaki's latest forecast that Bitcoin will reach $350,000 by late August 2024, the current trajectory of the asset makes this prediction seem highly improbable.
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