According to the latest edition of the "Bitfinex Alpha" report, if BTC repeats its price action during the 2017 bull run, it could peak at $290,000 in early 2026.
The prediction is based on historical price patterns, institutional adoption, and key technical indicators during bull cycles.
Following the bear market low in November 2022, BTC rebounded strongly in 2023, gaining 155.5%.
The momentum continued into 2024, with BTC trading between $55,000 and $70,000 for much of the year, posting a year-to-date gain of 143%.
The current bull cycle began in mid-to-late 2023, fueled by expectations for BTC's 2024 halving event, which historically has occurred before a bull year.
In addition, the report attributes the strength of this cycle to institutional buying pressure and the launch of spot BTC ETFs in the United States, which provide stable demand and limit the size and duration of market corrections.
In the 2017 cycle, BTC's maximum correction was 33.2%, while in the 2020 cycle, BTC fell by 27.1%.
In the current cycle, BTC corrections are more controlled due to increasing institutional interest, further enhancing market stability.
The BTC Cycle Top Indicator is an important tool for predicting BTC price peaks and has historically marked cycle highs very accurately.
The indicator tracks the relationship between the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and the multiple of the 350-day moving average (350DMAx2).
In previous cycles, when the 111DMA crosses above the 350DMAx2, BTC usually reaches a significant price peak.
The report emphasizes that if the 2021 cycle pattern repeats, this crossover could occur as early as June 29, 2025; if the 2017 extended cycle occurs, it could occur as late as January 28, 2026.
Based on historical performance, BTC peaks significantly above its moving average during bull runs.
In 2017, BTC traded at three times the peak of its moving average. However, as BTC matures, returns are also decreasing, suggesting a more conservative price forecast.
According to Bitfinex's forecast, if BTC follows its 2021 trajectory, its price could rise 40% above the moving average to around $339,000.
However, given the lackluster returns, BTC could rise 15% to 20% above the moving average, peaking at $160,000 to $200,000 by mid-2025.
Meanwhile, if the 2017 cycle repeats itself, which is less likely, BTC could peak at around $290,000 in early 2026.
While historical indicators suggest the most likely scenario is for BTC to peak at $160,000 to $290,000, the path to those heights will depend on market maturity, ETF adoption, and broader macroeconomic conditions, the report said.
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