Bitwise: Harris' statement caused BTC to rise by 5% What does it indicate

Author: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer, Bitwise; Compiler: 0xjs@黄金财经

As I write this memo on Monday afternoon, the cryptocurrency market is rising sharply. Bitcoin is up more than 5% in the past 24 hours, and Ethereum is up more than 7%. Altcoins are not far behind.

This is the biggest single-day gain in the cryptocurrency space in nearly two months.More interestingly, investors poured $555 million into Bitcoin ETFs on Monday, the biggest single-day gain in four months.

Part of the reason for the rise is a plan unveiled on Monday by Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, which, among other things, advocates for a smart regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies.

Reading the US media coverage of the proposal, you’d think Harris has embraced cryptocurrencies with both arms.

Bloomberg writes: “Kamala Harris highlights capital access and cryptocurrencies to attract Black men.”

But in reality, the statement doesn’t say much. Here’s her agenda in full:

Enable Black men who hold digital assets to benefit from financial innovation. More than 20% of Black Americans own or have owned crypto assets. Vice President Harris appreciates that new technologies can expand access to banking and financial services. She will ensure that owners and investors in digital assets benefit from a regulatory framework that protects Black men and others who participate in the market.

That’s it. That creates a $5 billion market cap for Bitcoin.

I hate to be a dampener, but that’s… nothing! There was no mention of ensuring fair access to banking services for crypto companies; no mention of changes in regulatory leadership; not even a mild comment about “embracing innovation in the digital asset space” or “the United States leading the way in blockchain.”

Indeed, Harris’ words read more like a Rorschach test than policy. If you’re against crypto, you’ll see Harris pushing for tight regulation of crypto in the name of “protecting” investors; if you’re for crypto, you’ll see Harris pushing for regulatory clarity and a path forward for the industry.

I’m not close enough to the campaign to know exactly what she means. I’ve seen people who claim to know the inside story argue both sides. From my perspective, you can only know one thing: The statement shows that Harris recognizes that crypto is important to an important demographic group, and she’s taking the time to point that out.

That’s good news. She knows that crypto exists, it’s important, and it’s not going away.  But it’s not the wholehearted embrace that crypto advocates might have hoped for.

Here’s the thing, though: That little bit of good news was enough to send Bitcoin up 5%. Enough to push over $500 million into Bitcoin ETFs. Enough to make people start to wonder if cryptocurrencies will finally hit new all-time highs.

To me, that’s the most interesting thing going on today.

Regardless of what Harris actually said, the price action over the 15th day of October tells me that there is a lot of capital sitting on the sidelines waiting to get into the market once everything is right.

In last week’s memo, I talked about what it would take to push cryptocurrencies to new all-time highs and Bitcoin to break $80,000. In terms of the election, I mentioned that either a Republican win or a divided government would be fine. My comments implied we would have to wait until after the election to hit $80,000 again.

After today, I'm not so sure. Monday's rally tells me that if crypto starts to take off, people don't want to be left behind. There's a lot of dry powder on the sidelines. As soon as we get a whiff of clarity, I think we'll move up quickly.