BTC breaks through $55,000, HSBC strategist: US stocks will fall further

Headline

▌BTC breaks through $55,000

The market shows that BTC breaks through $55,000 and is now at $55,125.69. The intraday decline narrowed to 6.45%. The market fluctuates greatly, so please do a good job of risk control.

▌HSBC Strategist: Model shows that US stocks will fall further

HSBC said that the stock cycle model shows that the US stock market is now in a "sell-off" mode, which usually lasts for a month, with the S&P 500 index falling an average of 10%. Strategists including Duncan Toms and Max Kettner wrote that the general correction in the US stock market has room to develop further. They said that the "sell-off" period is often relatively short and may bring opportunities to increase risk exposure at least tactically, but now is not the time because sentiment indicators show that it is too early to buy on dips.

Market

As of press time, according to Coingecko data:

BTC's latest transaction price is 54,052.42 US dollars, with a daily increase or decrease of -7.3%;

ETH's latest transaction price is 2,414.14 yuan, with a daily increase or decrease of -10.3%;

BNB's latest transaction price is 464.67 US dollars, with a daily increase or decrease of -6.4%；

SOL's latest transaction price is 129.64 US dollars, with a daily increase or decrease of -6.3%；

DOGE's latest transaction price is 0.09437 US dollars, with a daily increase or decrease of -9.0%；

XPR's latest transaction price is 0.489 US dollars, with a daily increase or decrease of -6.6%.

Policy

▌U.S. lawmakers propose to expand Secret Service authority to combat cryptocurrency crimes

U.S. Senators Catherine Cortez Masto and Chuck Grassley have introduced a new bill to strengthen the Secret Service's authority to investigate cryptocurrency crimes. The bill will give the Secret Service greater power to deal with transnational cybercrime activities such as unlicensed fund transfers, structured transactions, and financial fraud.  

The bill also encourages the Secret Service to work with federal agencies such as the Department of Justice and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) to form a united front. While the bill has received support from the financial and cybersecurity sectors, some privacy advocates have expressed concerns about potential overexpansion of power.

Blockchain Applications

▌Renzo Co-founder: ezETH performs well in anchoring, oracle and liquidity stability

Liquidity Re-Pledge Protocol Renzo co-founder Lucas Kozinski posted on the X platform that the Renzo team has focused on fundamentals throughout the summer. According to Dune data, ezETH has performed well in the market in terms of anchoring, oracle and liquidity stability, mainly reflected in: the withdrawal function has been enabled since the beginning of June; the oracle has been updated to reduce the risk of serial liquidation; liquidity has been significantly improved, but there is still more work to be done in this regard.

Cryptocurrency

▌Bitfinex: Overall market direction will depend on macroeconomic factors

Bitfinex released a report saying that Bitcoin failed to hold the key support level of $65,580, and the total liquidation in the past 24 hours reached $1.16 billion, mainly affecting long positions. Despite bearish market sentiment and sharp declines in Japanese and US stock markets, prices are expected to rise slightly to the $55,000 area. However, the overall market direction will depend on macroeconomic factors.  

Broad-based market instability is affecting cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets due to economic and political developments. The recent turmoil in the Japanese stock market and losses on Wall Street highlight the interconnectedness of global markets. Bitcoin's correlation with traditional financial markets is increasing, and if the stock market continues to fall, Bitcoin is expected to face continued downward pressure.

▌Lookonchain: Whales/Institutions Seem to Still Sell ETH

According to Lookonchain monitoring, whales/institutions seem to still sell ETH.  

The whale address starting with 0x6229 deposited 19,557 ETH (about 48.14 million US dollars) into Binance 1 hour ago.  

Metalpha deposited 10,000 ETH (about 24.5 million US dollars) into Binance 2 hours ago.

▌Analysis: Crypto markets may face greater volatility as VIX reaches highest level since COVID-19 market panic

Bohan Jiang, head of over-the-counter options trading at Abra, said the recent macroeconomic downturn caught the derivatives market off guard, and the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index (VIX) soared. In the past 24 hours, VIX has soared to more than 65 points, the highest level since the market panic at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak. Bohan Jiang said: "I expect implied volatility in the cryptocurrency market to remain high until macro factors calm down. Most options market participants are not prepared for the recent macro recession. As the macro narrative shifts, the cryptocurrency market still tends to trend upward; there is little hedging against downside risks."

Important Economic Dynamics

▌Bank of America: There is no need for the Fed to cut interest rates on a recessionary scale at present

The brokerage team of Bank of America Securities said in a report that the Fed's September rate cut is a foregone conclusion, but there is no need for an aggressive, recession-like rate cut. Almost all of the increase in the unemployment rate in July came from temporary layoffs, indicating only temporary weakness. The employment rate may rebound in the August report, and the unemployment rate may fall. They said: "Without layoffs, there will be no recession in the United States, and the layoff rate remains extremely low." Bank of America believes that the rate cut cycle will start in September, with a quarterly rate cut of 25 basis points until the terminal rate of 3.25%-3.5% is reached in mid-2026. "Aggressive rate cuts of 50 basis points or more are made in emergencies, as are actions taken between meetings, but we are not there yet."

▌CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September is 83%

According to CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 17%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 83%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 75 basis points by November is 7.4%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 100 basis points is 45.8%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 125 basis points is 46.8%.

▌Fed's Daly: Open to rate cuts at the September meeting, does not think the weakness in the labor market will worsen

2024 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly said in a speech that the Fed's mission and the risks it faces are becoming balanced, and he is open to cutting interest rates at the upcoming (September) meeting.  

Daly said: "The underlying data in the July employment report provides some reason for confidence, indicating that we are slowing down but not collapsing. I don't think the weakness in the labor market will worsen now, and I will pay close attention to whether the next job market report reflects the same dynamics, or a reversal. If we react to just one data point, we will almost always be wrong."

▌The three major U.S. stock indexes closed sharply lower, and popular technology stocks generally fell

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 2.6%, the Nasdaq down 3.43%, and the S&P 500 down 3%, the largest single-day drop since September 2022. Popular technology stocks generally fell, with Nvidia and Intel down more than 6%, Apple, Tesla, and Google down more than 4%, Apple's largest single-day drop since September 2022, Microsoft down more than 3%, its market value fell below $3 trillion, and Meta down more than 2%. Precious metals, semiconductors, and airlines fell the most, with Pan American Silver down more than 6%, American Gold Corporation and United Continental Airlines down more than 5%, and Arm, AMD, and Micron Technology down more than 2%.  

According to WatcherGuru on the X platform, the U.S. stock market lost more than $1.41 trillion on August 5.

Golden Encyclopedia

▌What is an inverse futures contract?

An inverse futures contract is a financial arrangement that requires the seller to pay the buyer the difference between the agreed price and the current price when the contract expires. Unlike traditional futures, the seller benefits from a drop in price. The nature of inverse futures contracts is nonlinear. When a trader goes long on a BTC/USD inverse futures contract, they are shorting the U.S. dollar. Because the contract is inverse, the trader's position is worth less in Bitcoin, and the higher the value of Bitcoin, the higher its value relative to the U.S. dollar.

Disclaimer: As a blockchain information platform, Golden Finance publishes articles for information reference only and is not intended as actual investment advice. Please establish a correct investment philosophy and be sure to increase risk awareness.