Ripple is catching up with Bitcoin. Is it a counterattack from financial giants or an illusion?

Source: Vernacular Blockchain

Since Trump won the US presidential election on November 5, a number of crypto assets, led by Bitcoin, have risen strongly, among which Ripple's XRP has performed even better. According to news on December 2, XRP surpassed Solana and Tether (USDT) to become the third largest crypto asset by market value, returning to the level before the SEC VS Ripple lawsuit in 2020.

Ripple was once considered to be a partner for the implementation of blockchain technology by many financial encryption institutions around the world, and it became famous. This is also one of the rare representative "footprints" of traditional "financial giants" participating in the wave of digital gold, blockchain, and PayFi technology. So will Ripple be a "counterattack" by financial giants this time?

01 Development History

Ripple's founding history can be traced back to 2004, when it was originally created by developer Ryan Fugger as a payment platform called RipplePay. RipplePay's goal is to enable individuals and businesses to make payments in a peer-to-peer manner without a bank account. Ryan Fugger designed a credit system based on trust, where users can directly trade or make cross-border payments through mutual trust, without relying on intermediaries in the traditional banking system, thereby effectively reducing transaction costs.

In 2011, Jed McCaleb and Chris Larsen, who came from a technical background, took over RipplePay and decided to develop it into a blockchain-based payment system. Soin 2012, they established OpenCoin to manage RipplePay, released the decentralized payment network protocol RippleNet and Token XRP based on the Ripple protocol, and began to promote XRP as a "bridge currency" for cross-border payments. With the development of the business, in order to better promote Ripple technology and payment networks, in 2015, OpenCoin was officially renamed Ripple Labs.

It is worth mentioning that Chris Larsen was a famous serial entrepreneur in Silicon Valley. In addition to Ripple, he also founded E-Loan and Prosper, both of which have achieved great success. And Jed McCaleb was one of the founders of Mt. Gox, an early Bitcoin trading platform. Although Mt. Gox later closed down due to security vulnerabilities and funding problems, McCaleb's early experience provided him with a deep understanding of the crypto market and accumulated connections and reputation in the industry. Although he later left Ripple, he played a crucial role in its early development and helped Ripple build its core technology and ecosystem. And Current CEO (CEO) Bradley Garlinghouse, who has served as an executive in large companies such as AOL and Yahoo!, has extensive experience in the fields of financial technology and blockchain.

With the background of its founders and the advantages of early dividends, Ripple has received multiple rounds of investment support since its establishment, attracting the participation of many well-known venture capital institutions. Investors include Andreessen Horowitz, IDG Capital Partners, Valar Ventures, Lightspeed Venture Partners, etc. These investments provide Ripple with sufficient funds to promote its technology research and development and market expansion.

In terms of market development, Ripple is not only for ordinary users, but also pays more attention to cooperation with traditional financial institutions. By 2013, Ripple was not only tried by some small financial institutions, but also cooperated with large financial institutions. By 2014, Ripple officially obtained a number of partners including cross-border payment companies such as IDT Corporation and Earthport, and also cooperated with many banks and financial institutions around the world (such as Western Union, Santander Bank of Spain, PNC, etc.), which changed the traditional cross-border payment model, making global payments more efficient and transparent, and making cross-border payments no longer dependent on the foreign exchange market.

It is particularly important to note that Ripple Labs has two products, one is the Ripple protocol that we mentioned many banking institutions cooperate with and adopt, and the other is the encrypted asset XRP. These two concepts are very easy to confuse. People often mistakenly believe that banks are adopting XRP assets on a large scale. In fact, the Ripple protocol adopted by banks is only a payment and settlement solution, which does not rely on XRP, a encrypted asset. XRP assets are only an option when adopted. In general, the Ripple protocol and XRP are compatible with each other but independent of each other.

In 2018, Justin Sun also became Ripple's ambassador in China, responsible for promoting the promotion and application of Ripple and XRP in the Chinese market.

In 2014, OpenCoin, the predecessor of Ripple, was also named one of the "50 Smartest Companies in the World" by MIT Technology Review. As time goes by, Ripple continues to strengthen its cooperation with global banks and payment institutions, gradually entering the mainstream financial circle, and this trend is also reflected in the price of XRP.

When XRP was first issued in 2012, the price was only a few cents. With the launch of the Ripple protocol and cooperation with some financial institutions, the price of XRP gradually increased between 2013 and 2014, reaching a maximum of about $0.10. At the end of 2017, driven by the bull market of the entire crypto market, XRP ushered in its first substantial increase, especially in December 2017, when the price of XRP broke through $3 to set a record high, becoming the third largest crypto asset by market value at the time.

In 2018, as the market bubble burst, the price of XRP fell back to around $0.50 and entered a relatively stable period. Until 2020, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against Ripple, accusing it of not registering XRP as a security. The case attracted widespread attention and became an important legal storm in the crypto industry. It also had a significant impact on the price of XRP, causing the price to fall.

Nevertheless, in 2021, with the overall market rebound and some court wins, the price of XRP once rebounded to around $1.80. After entering 2022, due to continued legal and regulatory challenges and unstable market sentiment, the price of XRP remained below $0.50 for most of the time. By 2023, Ripple once again won a partial victory in the lawsuit, and the market's confidence in XRP was restored, and the price rose to around $0.90.

However, affected by multiple factors such as market sentiment, Ripple's business expansion and legal proceedings, the price of XRP stabilized between $0.70 and $1.00 before November 2024, which is far from its peak.

After the rising market in November, by December 2, XRP's market value exceeded USDT, becoming the third largest crypto asset by market value, returning to the level before the SEC VS Ripple lawsuit. So what factors have driven people's renewed interest in XRP?

02 Factors behind the rise

1) Turnaround in the lawsuit between Ripple and SEC

The most direct factor for the rise of XRP comes from the key progress in the difficult lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC for more than four years.

Because since 2020, the lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC has been the main obstacle to the rise of XRP prices. On December 22, 2020, the SEC formally filed a lawsuit against Ripple and its founders Bradley Garlinghouse and Christian A. Larsen, alleging that since 2013, Ripple and its founders have made profits of approximately US$1.38 billion by selling XRP, and XRP is an unregistered security, which violates the registration requirements of the federal securities law. Ripple insists that its actions are legal and continues to defend in the lawsuit. Although the lawsuit continues, under pressure from the SEC, during this period, several mainstream trading platforms such as Coinbase and Binance US announced the delisting of XRP transactions.

However, recent cases and market developments indicate that the Ripple case is expected to be properly resolved.

We know that SEC Chairman Gensler's strict regulatory policies in recent years have once put many crypto projects in trouble, and he has therefore been called the "public enemy of crypto." However, with the news that Gensler is about to step down in January 2025, the market's expectations for a more friendly regulatory environment have been ignited. More importantly, this also means that the long-standing legal dispute between Ripple and the SEC is expected to be resolved.

According to Bitcoin.com on December 2, Chris Giancarlo, former chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), said that under the leadership of a crypto-friendly government, the SEC may withdraw its lawsuit against Ripple. He believes that the Trump administration may shift to a more pro-crypto policy, and the SEC will also review its regulatory stance on crypto assets, including the identification of XRP. Giancarlo also wrote a legal analysis report arguing that XRP should not be considered a security, and has been advocating for greater regulatory transparency and a lenient treatment of digital assets.

Previously, The Washington Post reported that Trump's advisory team was evaluating multiple candidates, including some officials and financial executives who openly support the crypto industry. It is worth mentioning that Chris Giancarlo is seen as a popular candidate for the position of "crypto czar" in the Trump administration.

There is no doubt that the market is predicting that the new SEC leadership may take a more relaxed and supportive attitude towards the crypto industry, thereby bringing new opportunities to XRP and other projects that have been under regulatory pressure. It can be foreseen that if the new chairman promotes policy changes, Ripple's lawsuit may be settled or withdrawn, and the regulatory environment of the entire crypto industry may also change. This will be a major policy benefit for projects that have been suppressed, such as Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase. Under this positive influence, the price of XRP rebounded strongly, with a single-day increase of more than 35%, setting a new high in nearly three years.

2) The Trump administration is friendly to the development of cryptocurrencies

The 2024 US presidential election has come to an end, and Republican candidate Donald Trump has been elected as the next president. During the campaign, Trump promised to make the United States the "global capital of cryptocurrency" and strongly support the crypto industry. The news brought a huge confidence boost to the market, taking the lead in driving up the prices of crypto assets led by Bitcoin, causing Bitcoin to start sprinting to the $100,000 mark.

And on November 14, there was news that President Trump wanted to cancel all capital gains taxes on cryptocurrencies issued by US companies. This news would make all profits earned by ADA, ALGO, HBAR and XRP completely tax-free because their creators are all US companies.

It can be said that the improvement in the regulatory environment has become a major positive factor for XRP to usher in a turnaround. With the overall market trend driving the rise in the prices of mainstream crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, the crypto market has entered a new round of bull market cycle. As one of the oldest crypto assets with the highest market value, XRP has naturally become one of the focuses of capital attention.

3) The development potential of Ripple

For the past few decades, the global financial payment system has been dominated by traditional bank settlement and payment methods. Although these systems have advantages in stability and security, with the acceleration of globalization and the booming development of e-commerce,traditional payment systems have gradually exposed many problems: high transaction fees, slow payment processing speeds, and the complexity and high costs of cross-border payments have become bottlenecks restricting global financial liquidity and market development.

Ripple's XRP and XRP Ledger (decentralized ledger), unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, which rely on proof of work (PoW) or proof of stake (PoS), XRP uses the Ripple Protocol Consensus Algorithm (RPCA). The algorithm reaches consensus through a group of independent verification nodes to ensure fast and effective verification of transactions. This enables the XRP network to complete transaction verification within seconds, greatly improving the speed of transactions and reducing costs. XRP is essentially a bridge currency that can exchange between different legal currencies efficiently and at low cost, providing a smoother path for global payments and cross-border settlements. With its innovative technical architecture and unique business model, Ripple has become an important force in promoting the innovation of traditional financial payment systems and expanding the Web3 field. It has established in-depth cooperative relationships with more than 100 banks and financial institutions around the world, including well-known institutions such as Santander Bank and Mitsubishi Bank. These collaborations have not only enhanced Ripple's influence in the traditional financial field, but also provided XRP with more practical application scenarios. At the same time, Ripple has cooperated with platforms such as Archax to actively promote the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) and help traditional financial assets smoothly enter the blockchain ecosystem. In addition, Ripple has also actively deployed in the field of "institutional-level DeFi". By cooperating with platforms such as OpenEden and investing in projects such as tokenized government bonds, it has opened up new opportunities for further cooperation with financial institutions.

Therefore, Ripple has practical use value and demand in cross-border payments, liquidity management and other fields.

Recently, asset management companies 21Shares, Bitwise Asset Management and other companies have submitted XRP ETF proposal applications, which further verifies Ripple's strategic advantage in the integration of Web3 and traditional finance.

In addition, according to CoinDesk, Ripple Labs has invested $25 million in the Fairshake Political Action Committee (PAC) in the crypto industry, aiming to compete for seats on the crypto industry advisory committee that Trump plans to establish, influence the 2026 U.S. congressional elections, and promote more friendly crypto regulatory policies. Ripple's move marks the beginning of the company's use of political means to try to reverse its litigation dilemma with the SEC through policy reforms and strive for a more favorable legal and regulatory environment for XRP.

According to a report by Fox Business on November 30, the New York Department of Financial Services has hinted to payment company Ripple (closely associated with XRP) that it will approve the company's magical RLUSD stablecoin. If approved, Ripple will be able to legally offer RLUSD to the public.
There are also unconfirmed reports that Elon Musk may invest heavily in Ripple and XRP, which may have further fueled market excitement. However, the rumor is still speculation, but it may have done its part in driving the bullish momentum of XRP.

03 Risk Warning

Despite XRP's recent performance, its future trend still needs to be viewed rationally.

1) Centralization Issue

First, the initial token allocation of XRP is controversial. Of the total supply of XRP of 100 billion, more than half is controlled by Ripple Labs.

Secondly, unlike fully decentralized blockchains such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, Ripple Labs plays a central role in the development, maintenance and support of XRP Ledger. This dependency makes XRP Ledger subject to the decisions of Ripple Labs to some extent.

In addition, Ripple Labs has established partnerships with many traditional financial institutions and central banks, which usually have centralized structures.

2) Leverage bubble risk

XRP's sharp rise has brought its price to its highest level since 2021. Some analysts warned that this rise may be "leverage-driven", and the open interest of XRP derivatives has reached a record level, warning investors to pay attention to potential volatility. Because historical patterns show that a rapid increase in open interest often leads to sudden market adjustments.

3) Confusion between Ripple protocol and XRP

As mentioned above, many people completely confuse the large-scale adoption of Ripple protocol by financial institutions with the large-scale adoption of XRP assets. The two are compatible but independent of each other. Although Ripple protocol has created a strong background for XRP assets, confusing the two may lead to misjudgment in overall evaluation.

04 Summary

As one of the pioneers in the blockchain field, XRP has been focusing on cross-border payment scenarios since its launch in 2012, and has been favored by financial institutions for its high efficiency, low cost and technological innovation. However, in the past 12 years, XRP's growth has not been smooth sailing. It has faced pressure from market competition and has been frequently frustrated by regulatory disputes. As a "veteran" in the field of cryptocurrency, can XRP successfully open up an innovative track in the future? Time will tell.