Coinbase: Why Young Crypto Voters Could Decide the US Election

Source: Coinbase; Compiled by Wuzhu, Golden Finance

Summary

Young voters played a decisive role in the 2020 US election and are expected to be decisive again in 2024. Gen Z and Millennial voters make up 40% of all eligible voters and will become the majority of voters by 2028 - they largely represent pro-cryptocurrency, pro-innovation voters who want to support candidates who will help improve and update the system. Any candidate who wants to win in 2024, especially those running in battleground states that can decide the success or failure of federal elections, must take young, pro-cryptocurrency voters into account.

Only 9% of Americans say they are satisfied with the current financial system. And among younger Americans [1], only 7% say the financial system is working well for them. Young voters are tired of the outdated system and are looking for change — a belief that is fostering an emerging, first-of-its-kind pro-crypto voter group that has elevated cryptocurrencies to a key campaign issue in the 2024 election cycle.

Young voters are expected to turn out in large numbers for the upcoming US election

Young Americans make up a significant portion of the electorate. Gen Z and Millennial voters make up 40% of all eligible voters, will become the majority of voters by 2028, and have a proven track record of influencing elections at all levels of government. For example, in 2020, 55% of eligible voters under the age of 30 made their voices heard at the ballot box, up 11 percentage points from 2016. This active constituency could well be decisive again in 2024; 92% of registered voters under 35 say they are likely to vote in the November election [2].

Not only is this voting bloc large, but they also see the world differently than previous generations. Only 19% of Millennials and 9% of Gen Z adults believe the American Dream is achievable [3]. They’re actively seeking change. And part of that change is cryptocurrency. Younger generations are facing increasing financial pressures and growing disillusioned with the current system, but they’re also increasingly empowered by technology and emboldened to take action on their own initiative. As a result, younger generations own cryptocurrency at a much higher rate than older populations—25% of 18-34 year olds own cryptocurrency, compared to 14% of older Americans [4]. As evidenced by the growing number of supporters who have pledged their support for cryptocurrency — 1.33 million at the time of writing — they are looking for candidates who share their passion for innovative solutions to systemic problems. With less than 80 days until the 2024 election, candidates from both parties hoping to win this November must focus on the young, diverse, crypto-friendly base of voters who could make or break their campaigns.

Young voters see cryptocurrency as a top political issue—especially in battleground states

Contrary to popular belief, cryptocurrency is a nonpartisan issue: 41% of cryptocurrency holders under 35 in swing states identify as Democrats, 39% as Republicans, and 20% as independents or others [5]. Now, young voters’ acceptance of cryptocurrency has helped make cryptocurrency policy a key topic in this year’s campaign. Nearly two-fifths (38%) say cryptocurrency and blockchain can expand economic opportunities for them in ways that traditional finance cannot. Nearly four in ten (38%) believe cryptocurrencies are the future of finance. Importantly, more than half (51%) are likely to support a crypto-friendly candidate in 2024. Young voters can make a decisive difference for either party — and this is especially important in battleground states, where a small number of votes can mean the difference between victory for either party.

In Georgia, for example, 51% of eligible voters under the age of 30 voted in 2020, compared to 37% in 2016. This was the largest increase among the southern demographic and was a major factor in President Biden’s narrow victory in the state in 2020. Since then, cryptocurrencies have become an issue of concern, especially among younger voters, with the “pro-crypto” voting gap in Georgia now three times larger than the one that decided the Biden-Trump outcome in 2020. With Georgia expected to once again be one of the most competitive states in the country this year, turnout among young crypto-friendly voters will have a measurable impact on who wins the state.

Other battleground states are following the same pattern. Arizona saw a larger surge in young voters in 2020 than the nation as a whole compared to 2016. We know that surge comes with calls for change; among Arizona’s cryptocurrency holders under 44, 88% of past and current holders believe the financial system needs to change, with 27% wanting to overhaul the system [5]. In Michigan, youth turnout jumped to 54% in 2020 from 42% in 2016, helping President Biden to another narrow victory in one of the most important Electoral College states.

The Future of the Financial System Will Be Decided on the Ballot This November

As a new generation of voters emerges, digital asset innovation is also taking on a new focus. A poll released in May showed that more than 20% of voters in several battleground states believe cryptocurrency is a key issue in the upcoming US election. When you narrow it down to the newest generation of voters, 90% of Gen Z former and current crypto holders in five key swing states believe the financial system needs to change [5], and 61% of former and current crypto holders under the age of 35 in five key swing states say they are enthusiastic about voting for a candidate who supports the crypto industry this year [5]. In these states, young crypto holders are tired of the rising costs and high fees of traditional financial services and believe that crypto and blockchain can help solve these problems. As 2024 candidates make their final push before Election Day, these evidence points should serve as a clear call to action: young, pro-crypto voters will make their voices heard at the ballot box this year. Politicians who want to get votes must address the future they want. That future is financial and economic freedom. And crypto is the path to that future.

Notes:

[1] For the purposes of this blog post, “young Americans” and “young voters” refer to those in the 18-40 age group unless otherwise noted.

[2] Source: Registered Voter Study, Impact Research commissioned by Coinbase Inc., June 2024.

[3] Source: Generational Study, Bovitz, Inc., commissioned by Coinbase Inc., July 2023.

[4] Source: Morning Consult, April 2024.

[5] Source: Swing State Study, Impact Research commissioned by Coinbase Inc., July 2024.