“Consensus” equals “value”?

Source: Daoshuo Blockchain

1. After experiencing the roller coaster of the last bull market, I was full of hot coins, but only the dregs were left. This time, I was playing new games, airdrops, inscriptions, and runes. I was so anxious that I couldn't beat the market even though I tried it all.

I think this sentence applies to the vast majority of investors. And this law has been proven countless times, and I even think it is very close to the truth.

In my experience, it applies not only to the crypto market but also to the traditional stock market.

In the traditional stock market (especially the U.S. stock market), Buffett’s famous betting case and data over the years show that more than 80% of investors (including the vast majority of Wall Street fund managers) invest Neither performed as well as the Dow Jones Index (the broader market).

In the encryption market, I think this is even more true.

Investors who have experienced at least two (three, the more the better) bull markets in this market may wish to take a closer look:

Let’s take Bitcoin and Ethereum separately and look at them. Let’s look at the benefits they bring us; and then look at the benefits those coins bought by following the trend in hot spots bring us. Let’s see on average, which one brings us higher returns from Bitcoin and Ethereum, or from other no-name copycats?

I believe that for the vast majority of retail investors, the high probability is that Bitcoin and Ethereum will bring high returns.

I do not deny that in these bull markets, we are likely to buy off-brand altcoins whose returns far exceed those of Bitcoin and Ethereum. I have had such examples, but I prefer to regard this "record" as luck, and I am less and less convinced that it is really my ability.

And the vast majority of people who can make money from this kind of luck are the brave men who have the courage to be the first to eat crabs and persist to the end, and few are the kind The general public just followed the trend and bought into hot spots.

Most of those lonely warriors who had the courage to be the first to eat crabs and persisted until the end were denied by the environment and not understood by those around them in that scene.

How many people can understand the inner suffering that someone can stand alone in that kind of environment?

So even if you encounter this kind of luck, the process is very painful, and I don’t think it belongs to the general public.

2. The consensus of leeks is also a consensus

This type of expression first originated from X Xiaolai.

Many times this sentence is easily understood by people: as long as a thing has the consensus of everyone, no matter what the consensus is, it is valuable and meaningful.

So in the encryption ecosystem, many people will unthinkingly believe that any coin will have "value" as long as there is "consensus".

I have reservations about this kind of understanding. Because many times, a more popular term for this type of consensus is the herd effect. The herd effect in the investment market is not only worthless but harmful most of the time.

Precisely because of the herd effect, when the market continues to be hot, everyone will be more certain that prices will rise, pushing the market to more irrational heights; and when the market continues to be cold, everyone will It will make you more certain that prices will fall and push the market to an even more unfathomable bottom.

These are all the function of this kind of "consensus".

But this consensus often reflects the irrationality of the market. In my opinion, rational investors should try their best to avoid it. In many cases, we even have to operate in the opposite direction of this "consensus".

Another very common point of view is:

Many people regard the consensus formed by Bitcoin today as the achievement of the "consensus" of "leeks". It seems that there is no This "consensus" Bitcoin would not have the same value as it does today.

I can’t say that this view is wrong, but I think the more fundamental reason is that there is always a small group of elites in human society who are tirelessly pursuing the most precious, purest, and simplest values ​​in human thought: equal rights. , privacy, freedom.

This arduous search process was finally transformed into a masterpiece created by technical means by a small group of geniuses.

This value forms the most priceless value core of Bitcoin.

Consensus is just a process of continuously superimposing value around this value core.

Without this core of value, consensus cannot function at all and cannot be sustained at all----This is why the so-called "value" of most altcoins is at best short-lived and cannot be sustained at all. Reasons for long-term maintenance. Because they do not have a priceless value core like Bitcoin, even if there is consensus, the consensus cannot be firmly condensed and superimposed.