Young Ju pointed out that the on-chain cost base of new BTC whales is approximately $56,000, and it is expected that if BTC reaches this price level, a large amount of capital will pour in Spot Bitcoin ETF Market.
Against the backdrop of falling Bitcoin prices, the recent Bitcoin ETF spot market has been bleak. Despite continued declines in net flows, prominent analyst and CEO of CryptoQuant Ki Young Ju predicts that the spot Bitcoin ETF market may recover.
On March 22, Ki Young Ju posted on X that even if the price of BTC continues to fall, spot Bitcoin ETF net flows may rise. Using data from historical net flow trends, the analyst noted that demand for a Bitcoin ETF typically arises when the cryptocurrency tracks a certain support level.
These BTC ETFs have recorded negative flows over the past four trading days, according to data from analytics firm BitMEX Research. The situation was marked by significant outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC, while other ETFs (mainly market leader BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC) saw record low inflows.
Young Ju noted that new BTC whales, especially ETF buyers, have an on-chain cost base of approximately $56,000. This shows that significant Bitcoin holders, especially ETF investors, typically purchase Bitcoin at an average price of $56,000.
Based on this model, cryptocurrency quants expect significant inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETF market if BTC reaches the above price threshold.
Bitcoin
$64,606
Prices have fluctuated between $62,000 and $68,000 over the past week. However, Young Ju said the drop is reasonable considering adjustments typically fall by up to 30%. With BTC recently peaking at $73,750, analysts predict that the asset’s price could drop to $51,000.
However, in the past 48 hours, the price of BTC fell by 13% from an all-time high of $73,835, once falling to near $60,000. The correction is due to overheating in the market, which analysts refer to as a "pre-halving retracement," and comes about 30 days before Bitcoin's halving event.
A report from CryptoQuant shows that given that investment flows from new investors are relatively low and price valuation indicators remain below the levels of past market tops, Bitcoin’s The coin bull market cycle is not over yet.
At the same time, the upcoming Bitcoin halving event is expected to drive up the price of Bitcoin, ushering in a parabolic upward trend. According to CoinMarketCap’s halving countdown, there are less than 31 days until Bitcoin’s next halving event.
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