Cycle Capital: Livepeer (LPT) with a new narrative of full circulation

Author: Cycle Capital Source: medium

1. Fundamental Development

Since we refocused on Livepeer in 2023, it has gradually moved from a decentralized video streaming network to a leader in the decentralized AI video track. The price of its token LPT has risen from around US$7 when the research report was released to more than US$21.

After OpenAI released Sora on February 16, 2024, Livepeer announced that the community is working to introduce these features to the Livepeer network in the coming months as part of the artificial intelligence video plan, and has officially started a new narrative for AI video.

On May 21, Livepeer issued an announcement on the launch of the AI ​​subnet, marking the gradual implementation of its decentralized AI video plan. The AI ​​Subnet is a forked branch of the Livepeer video infrastructure network that provides a sandbox for the secure development and testing of new decentralized AI media processing markets and tools. The AI ​​Subnet's architecture is designed to organize different AI reasoning tasks into discrete job types, sending, receiving, and returning job requests for different types of tasks through specific pipelines. The subnet also allows Livepeer Orchestrator node operators to earn ETH and LPT income by deploying GPU resources for AI processing tasks. The launch of the AI ​​Subnet is expected to make Livepeer the world's first decentralized video processing network with AI computing capabilities. Livepeer's open network of thousands of GPUs will be used to provide low-cost, high-performance processing to solve the structural problems of centralized AI computing.

The roadmap for Livepeer AI is divided into three development phases:

Phase I: AI Subnet Design and Stability (Completed)

The first phase of the subnet proof-of-concept design and the initial onboarding of existing Livepeer Orchestrator node operators ended on May 1, and more than 20 high-performance AI Orchestrator nodes are already active.

Phase II: AI Subnet Optimization (In Progress)

This phase focuses on improving the quality of service provided to AI Orchestrator and AI Gateway node operators. The goal is to enhance network provisioning by expanding the range of compatible GPUs (low VRAM GPUs and server GPUs), reducing container loading time, and handling edge cases. Work in this phase also includes working with select design partners through a new AI video startup program to improve the onboarding experience for application developers.

Phase 3: Livepeer Mainnet and AI Network Expansion (Q3 2024)

The mainnet is expected to be launched in Q3 2024, providing a high-quality experience for AI developers, equipped with tools and software development kits. The network expansion will allow efficient execution of custom models and workflows, run custom container code securely, enable flexible inference requests to reduce developer costs, and establish a method to verify the authenticity of the coordinator and ensure the source of content.

In addition, Livepeer has introduced a staking feature and will launch a staking and related data dashboard in June to further promote the staking adoption of LPT.

2. Token Update

The current LPT market value is 720 million, the token is fully circulated, the main trading venue is Binance, and the trading volume/mc in the past two weeks is between 10%-20%

After falling from the high point in March, a new support was formed. The first concentrated trading area is 14.5, followed by 17-19; the technical pattern meets the key points of Fibonacci, and currently stands above 21 (0.618)

In the 4-hour volume-price relationship, the rise is accompanied by the increase in green column volume, and the red column volume decreases less, and the buyer's power is relatively strong.

The chain data has seen a new large-scale withdrawal flow in the past 30 days. According to Scopescan data, on May 14, a large amount of 1.08 million coins were withdrawn, and cex had a net outflow of about 500,000 coins. Referring to Nansen data, the top 20 positions have added three large accounts in the past 30 days, totaling about 950,000 coins. Except for the initial third-party custody address, the other non-exchange addresses have less outflow on the chain.

Source: Scopescan

Source: Nansen

III. Summary

1. On a monthly basis, LPT's bottom accumulation has lasted for more than a year. The current autonomous rise has lasted for three months, and the price has increased by 3-4 times. Long-term chips need to be continuously distributed.

2. In the recent daily level, there are obvious on-chain addresses building positions in chips, and the price pattern conforms to the key position of Fibonacci. In terms of volume and price relationship, buyers are stronger than sellers.

3. The project has opened a new narrative of AI, the tokens are fully circulated and fully changed hands, the market value is moderate compared to other AI targets, and the fundamentals have foreseeable positives waiting to be released.