Source: TechFlow
When Binance suddenly announced the launch of ACT, you may hear a person's name repeatedly in people's exclamations - Wizard.
People thanked the wizard, saying that the wizard saved ACT, and the wizard said that this was a victory for the community.
This is a Hollywood story of civilians fighting against dragons:
The developer sold all the tokens, and the price dropped by 50% in an instant, almost destroying the project. The wizard and other community members rebuilt on the ruins. The price dropped by 80% three times, but the community still held on. The market maker commented that he had never seen such a "poor" project until Binance became an angel in white and ACT became a blockbuster.
In the eyes of the wizard, AI MEMEs such as ACT and GOAT represent a Renaissance of AI. The future AI will no longer be a simple assistant, but a free soul with autonomous consciousness and controllable within a certain range.
Today, the wizard seems to have become the Murad of the Chinese cryptocurrency circle, but greatness is achieved through hard work, and great results are often accompanied by great pain.
With an 8-digit dollar liquidation in a single day and being deeply trapped in ORDI for half a year, the wizard said that he had experienced palpitations several times, just like walking on a busy street on a sunny afternoon, with his heart twitching constantly.
How can a mysterious ordinary person turn the tide against the wind many times by himself? What are the profound philosophical thoughts behind the seemingly simple MEME investment?
This is the story and thinking of the wizard.
Deep Tide TechFlow: Please introduce yourself, wizard, how did you enter the cryptocurrency circle at that time?
0xWizard:
I actually entered the cryptocurrency circle in 2018, but I didn't actively trade at that time. In 2018, I read the white papers of Bitcoin and Ethereum, and then bought some mainstream coins such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, but just held them. 2018 to 2019 was a bear market, and during this period I basically did not do anything, just simply held them.
Around the middle of 2020, I noticed that the coins in my account began to appreciate significantly. At this time, I began to think, is this an opportunity?
A friend introduced me to the concept of DeFi (decentralized finance). I briefly learned about it, such as the Compound project, which was the first to do liquidity mining. At first, I thought it was a bit like the trading mining model of FCoin, and I thought it was not very sustainable. It was June 2020, and my understanding of trading was still relatively superficial, and I had not been deeply exposed to DeFi.
What really made me start paying attention to DeFi was YFI. Some people said that YFI made 10,000 times the profit. The stimulation of this wealth effect is very strong.
So in September, I began to actively learn and understand the currency circle, especially DeFi. I learned to use the MetaMask wallet and bought some before Sushi was listed. Although Sushi fell a lot later, which gave me a painful lesson, it also marked the official start of my DeFi journey, or the active trading journey.
Later, the outbreak was Suanwen (algorithmic stablecoin). I entered the circle in September of that year, and then lost 60% in October. In November, Suanwen made 100 times the profit.
From that time on, I was probably one of the first batch of players on the chain. Whether it was the second-level or the first-level, I had done everything. I played copycats, big coins, rolling warehouses, ETH, and various projects on the chain in the second-level. The ups and downs were quite interesting.
TechFlow: You mentioned earlier that you have made a 100x profit. Which project is it?
0xWizard:
I participated in Basis and Mith Cash. I made 10x on Basis, and invested tens of thousands of dollars. Then I participated in Mith Cash, which is the project of Lao Huang.
Here is an interesting story. Before in the KP3R project, I met a friend named "X". At that time, neither of us had much money to play KP3R, and Lao Huang (Huang Licheng) kept smashing the market from 200 US dollars to 80 US dollars. We were both trapped together and chatted every day.
Later, we participated in Basis and Mith Cash together. He didn't play Basis, but I played it and made 10x. When we got to Mith Cash, we both participated. He made about 5 million US dollars and I made 3 million US dollars. This can be regarded as revenge for the one arrow arrow on KP3R that year. We used the Mith Cash project to "bury" Lao Huang, which is quite interesting.
Deep Tide TechFlow: The biggest hot spot recently is ACT. Many people mentioned you and said thank you to the wizard for letting them hold on. Were you surprised when you heard that Binance launched ACT? What do you think is the main reason why Binance chose to launch ACT instead of the sector dragon GOAT?
0xWizard:
I was at the computer at the time. I saw the line first, then the congratulations message, and finally the official notice.
As for whether ACT was listed on Binance by accident, I think there is still a high element of luck. No one can predict that it will definitely be listed, but it cannot be said to be completely unexpected. Binance chose to list ACT instead of GOAT, which is actually quite clear.
This involves the MEME ecosystem on Solana. There are actually two types of MEME ecosystems: one is a real community coin, and the other is a highly controlled coin.
Many of the coins that are shouted are actually the latter, that is, a few people control a large number of chips, and then build a community to pull up the coin. If this kind of coin is listed on a large exchange, it will often be miserable because the controlling party will quickly ship it. For Binance, there is no benefit in listing such a coin with an unhealthy chip structure.
And ACT and Neiro are both real community coins. When I observed ACT, I found that its trading was very quiet, but it was able to stabilize at a market value of 20 million US dollars because the community is very strong.
There are about 20 core people who actively contribute in the ACT community. I am the only Chinese among them, so I know the situation very well.
The problem faced by this kind of real community coin is that there is no strong market maker. But from the perspective of Binance, this is precisely a very good target.
It does have a strong community. You can see that the real holders of ACT cast more than 20,000 votes when Kucoin voted to list the coin. Although one person can cast 5 votes on Kucoin, there are 15,000 ACT holding addresses. Excluding invalid addresses, there are about 9,000 valid addresses. Excluding the situation where one person holds multiple addresses, there are about 6,000 to 8,000 real holders, of which 4,000 people voted, indicating that this community is very active and real. If you ask them to vote, they will really vote, showing strong cohesion.
For Binance, this target is the most ideal. Those projects with a market value of hundreds of millions may not have as many holders as ACT, nor are they as cohesive as ACT.
ACT is a project with many fans but a low market value, which leaves enough space for both the primary and secondary markets, and can form a wealth effect and myth.
I remember writing a tweet before, saying that if Binance wants to list a coin, it should choose a coin like this:
New narrative and new track, which means there is a lot of room for future growth;
Really strong community;
Small market value, so that it can generate primary and secondary wealth effects;
High timeliness, whether it is controversial or popular;
ACT has all these points. When I wrote the tweet, I wrote it according to the characteristics of ACT, but to be honest, I didn’t expect it to be listed, because whether it is listed or not is ultimately the decision of the exchange itself, and we cannot predict it. But from a logical point of view, we can find some clues. By analyzing the entire MEME market, we can see that Binance will not list those highly controlled coins.
For those highly controlled coins, they are shipped as soon as they are launched, which is equivalent to helping only a few people cash out, while most of the users in the secondary market become victims. As for how Binance should choose, I think this is a very typical thinking direction.
As for GOAT, I think it is indeed a good target, but the possible reason why Binance did not choose it is that its market value is too high. In this case of unclear chips and high market value, it is risky for Binance to go online. The first thing Binance should consider is to protect its users and ensure that the listed target can take care of the demands of as many people as possible.
Another important point is what I mentioned before, high upside, new track, new narrative and other factors are also very important.
Many brothers came to me and said, "Wizard, look at our community. Our community is also very persistent, and we are also miserable." But it's like you only see one factor in a successful case. The most critical factor for me to choose ACT is that it represents a new track and a new narrative, which cannot be ignored. Without this, how can we drive the hype in the secondary market? How can we ensure the upward space? It is not enough to have a strong community.
The most important point is that I think Binance also saw that this is a trend, so it has to choose a representative target. The following series of considerations are all after this choice to ensure that choosing ACT is the right decision. This is my opinion.
TechFlow: How did you discover ACT in the first place? What characteristics of it attracted you in the early days, and you persisted even when it fell sharply in the middle?
0xWizard:
ACT has experienced three declines of more than 80%.
I came into contact with ACT relatively late. At that time, I saw someone mention ACT on social media. When I checked its candlestick chart, I found that the market value had risen to 40 million US dollars. I happened to enter the market at that peak, and then the price experienced an 80% drop. During this decline, I continued to build positions, from a market value of $40 million to $5 million.
I joined the ACT community from the first day, and I can say that I was trapped before I started to study in depth. The main reason for choosing to enter the market at that time was that the market was generally looking for the next GOAT, and ACT and GOAT had many similarities:
First, Marc Andersson first funded these two projects, ACT was the first and GOAT was the second.
Second, there is a small circle in the field of AI MEME with Andy as the core, and almost all researchers in this circle participated in the ACT project. Although AMP is the representative of the project, he is just one of the people standing in front of the stage. If you study it in depth, you will find that the initial thinking framework was proposed by Andy, and more people will participate in it later. On the day ACT was launched, Andy also forwarded several ACT-related content.
Therefore, the logic of choosing ACT is very clear. To enter this field, you need to find unique projects that can tell new stories. Other projects are talking about AI Agents and are following GOAT, but ACT has gone its own way.
I once compared this to an AI Renaissance on Twitter. Thinking deeply about the emergence of GOAT and ACT is similar to the Renaissance movement in human history. The Renaissance emphasized that human rights are higher than divine rights, and proposed new concepts to break through old thinking. The emergence of GOAT and ACT is also the same.
In traditional concepts, AI is just our assistant, but if we look forward to the future of AI, in the future Internet world, 80% of the natives may be AI, and people may not even be able to tell whether the other party is human or AI. At that time, AI will no longer be a simple assistant, but a free soul with autonomous consciousness and controllable within a certain range.
AI MEME is exploring the track based on this kind of imagination and possibility of the future. This is why I particularly appreciate this project. It is full of futuristic sense, and it has practical applications and a large amount of traffic on social media, which is very consistent with the needs of cryptocurrency.
The emergence of GOAT reflects Andy's philosophy: let AI play freely and think independently, just like the Renaissance freed people from the shackles of theocracy, let AI get rid of human restrictions and see what it can create. It puts forward the concept of "blasphemy is sacred, and sacred is blasphemy". This is GOAT, which tokenizes an idea.
To realize such a vision, it is necessary to build on the foundation of the Renaissance: freedom, science, and democracy. ACT is a research framework designed based on these concepts. Many researchers have promoted their respective research on this basis. AMP is just one of them. In fact, it is not AMP that created the ACT project, but the ACT project is funding the entire AI Renaissance movement. This is why I initially joined and was optimistic about this project.
As for AMP, although he is one of the participants in the ACT project, his character is disappointing. When he initially received more than $30,000 in funding from Marc Andersson, he was grateful, but when the cryptocurrency community gave him $1 million in support, he kept belittling the community, saying that we were all gamblers who were just borrowing his reputation.
This is why I want to speak for the ACT community. Later, when AMP started to crash, I was very emotional and got angry on Twitter for the first time. Because I have real emotional exchanges with community members. I can't understand how an outsider treats our cryptocurrency community with such a condescending and contemptuous attitude. We gave him research funding, how could he treat us like this?
Back to the original question, my conclusion is based on two points: First, rational analysis, I think this is a good investment target. Secondly, emotional factors, I resonate with the community, and I empathize with myself in 2020. No one spoke for me at the time, and now I want to stand up and speak for them.
TechFlow: The abandonment and stabbing of AMP is equivalent to destroying the ATC building, and you have rebuilt ACT on the ruins through the power of the community. What has your community done and how is the division of labor?
0xWizard:
ACT is not a traditional project. There is no formal organizational structure. There is no CEO, CFO or CMO to control public opinion and do PR. When we saw AMP shipped, everyone acted based on their most authentic reactions.
For example, the content quality of the ACT community account has been high from the beginning. Those high-quality pictures and videos are not casual MEME pictures, but are made by an overseas female artist in the community. She is purely contributing silently as a coin holder without any remuneration.
In terms of the management of the Telegram group, if there is no active administrator online 24 hours a day, the group will be full of spam ads. But in the ACT community, you can't see any ads, because the administrator will immediately delete them and kick out the account that posted the ads. These are all spontaneous actions of community members.
In addition, there are people like Brother Naizi (X: Cryptocurrency Philanthropist) who help introduce the resources of centralized exchanges (CEX), and other foreign members in the community who introduce high-quality market makers.
In fact, we were in contact with these market makers before listing on Binance, but because our funds were really limited, the market makers said that they had never come into contact with such a "poor" project. Despite this, we still frankly stated that this is our current situation and asked them to consider whether they can accept it.
In the end, these top market makers saw that we are indeed one of the strongest communities and reluctantly agreed to cooperate.
Everyone is working towards the same goal, and everyone is holding their breath, just like what I think: We are kind farmers, why should we be bitten by snakes? Why do retail investors always bear the most painful consequences?
When the market value of the project fell from 40 million US dollars to 5 million US dollars, I started to build confidence in the Telegram group. The method was very simple, showing orders. I told everyone that I was buying with tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars to keep everyone confident.
In the three 80% plunges that ACT experienced, I appeared in the community every time and said "I am here, I am with you". As a person with a certain influence, I want to tell the retail investors in the community that I will not leave and I will always support them.
But I want to emphasize that I am not a savior or a godfather. I am just an ordinary community member. If there were no efforts from others, could I persist alone? Can I manage the group 24 hours a day? Can I make pictures? Can I contact these market makers? If it were just me, I might have given up long ago.
This is a victory for the community, not my personal victory. The Chinese community only sees me, but there are many people working hard behind me.
It is worth mentioning that Binance did not ask us for any tokens. Even when their post-listing team contacted me after the listing, I told them that I was just a leek who bought the tokens. Two hours before the final listing, they came to verify some basic information, such as the total amount of tokens and circulation, official Twitter account, etc. At that time, they also asked for thousands of test tokens, which made me speechless, indicating that they did not even prepare test coins.
This also proves that Binance has a very strict confidentiality process.
Whether in Neiro or ACT projects, when the community is fighting against the conspiracy group, Binance stood on the side of the community and left enough space for both the primary and secondary markets. Isn’t this a good thing?
Like Neiro, I bought it at a market value of 300 million US dollars, and now it has tripled. After listing on Binance, you can use a larger position and buy millions of dollars of tokens. This is a completely different logic. There is enough space in the primary and secondary markets. What else do you want? I really don’t understand why some people want to attack Binance and this project.
TechFlow: For most coins, especially some VC coins with high control by project parties, listing on Binance means that all the benefits have been exhausted, and then everyone starts to sell. So what is the imagination space for ACT, which has already been listed on Binance?
0xWizard:
As a community project, the value of ACT is constantly being reshaped. This is why I re-participated in on-chain projects from 2020 to 2023, based on a most basic theoretical assumption: Why does MEME coin or on-chain project produce wealth effect?
Let's first look at the token production method of traditional VC projects: a project party proposes an idea, analyzes market demand, and solves industry development problems. Then start looking for investors, find VCs, develop products after obtaining investment, and finally go online.
The value of such a project depends on several factors:
Is the project itself good and the team strong?
Is the VC involved top-level?
Is it listed on a large exchange?
But the problem is that the moment it is listed on a large exchange, there is not much room in the secondary market. Because all these factors have been analyzed and the pricing is already very reasonable, it may be a valuation of hundreds of millions, billions or even tens of billions of dollars (FDV) at the beginning. In this case, as an ordinary investor, can you still accept it?
In addition, the project party often adopts a predatory token model, with a small amount of release at the beginning and then continuous release.
You will see that some currencies have fallen 10 times in price even though their market value has not changed. This makes the story of "falling 90% and then rising 100 times" that we often see in the cycle before cryptocurrency difficult to appear in this cycle.
On-chain projects, like ACT, are constantly reshaping their value. This is why I dare to buy Neiro. After it was listed on Binance, its narrative, funds, user groups and investment logic have all changed.
ACT may have been just one of the two most important targets in the AI MEME track before, but now that it has been listed on Binance, it is no longer just one of the two most important targets in AI MEME, but has become the representative of AI MEME itself, and an index target of this track. It represents a new track and a new trend.
If you have millions of dollars of funds to allocate in the secondary market, how do you allocate them? On Binance, if you want to lay out AI-related tracks, ACT's counterparts are no longer GOAT, but those projects that have reached tens of billions of dollars in FDV, such as Worldcoin.
This involves two core logics: first, its value is constantly being reshaped; second, the judgment of future market opportunities.
When I tweeted in October, I asked everyone sincerely: If we enter a bull market in the next two months (Bitcoin had not risen at that time), which track can generally rise 10 times?
As a retail investor, if a track can only rise two or three times, you can't make much money. Because many people have to wait until the bull market is confirmed before they dare to buy, and they don't know where the top is. People who react quickly may make 50%, 60%, 80%, and it is very difficult to double. Only if you find a track that can generally rise 10 times, even if you enter and exit on the right side, you can still have three or five times the income.
For this reason, I studied all tracks, including DeFi, BTC ecology, TON ecology, AI track, and pan-MEME coin track. After reading it, I had a headache, because the projects that can be bought in the AI track are already worth billions of dollars, how can they rise 10 times?
What is the hype in the cryptocurrency market? The whole macro logic is that AI leads the technological revolution, the next industrial revolution and the information revolution. AI supports the US stock market. Can the cryptocurrency market not speculate on AI? This is why the AI track rose 10 times at the beginning of the year. But after the general rise, it is difficult to buy projects with FDV of billions or tens of billions of dollars.
So when GOAT appeared, my eyes lit up immediately. After ACT went online, I think if you want to invest in the AI track, especially investors with millions of dollars, you have to ask yourself two questions: First, among all the tracks, which track can rise 10 times? Which track will definitely rise? Second, can the target in this track make me rise 10 times? Is there any possibility for its market value?
This is why I think ACT still has a lot of room for growth. Although it has experienced three 80% declines, there are many "diamond hands" and "brainless fans" in the community. I also said in the community group that I am a brainless fan. Don't ask me about logic. I just believe and support these people unconditionally.
TechFlow: Looking back at the dispute between uppercase and lowercase Neiro, Binance finally chose the more community-oriented lowercase Neiro. It can be said that Binance saved Neiro/ACT.
There seems to be a contradiction here. Everyone is tired of VC coins and chooses to issue and trade Memecoin, which is more community-oriented, on the chain, but it is Binance that ultimately decides the life and death of this Memecoin, so I also saw DOG founder Leonidas tweeting @一姐(何一) and CZ day after day, hoping that Binance will list DOG.
Everyone embraces more decentralized assets on the chain, but the ultimate goal is to be recognized by the most powerful centralized exchange, so as to complete the liquidity exit. This seems a bit ironic. What do you think of this phenomenon? Will centralized exchanges or Binance always be the "savior" of Memecoin?
0xWizard:
I think we need to look at this issue from several angles and perspectives:
First, we need to look at it from a historical perspective. This is a process. At present, the funds and liquidity on the chain are not sufficient, while Binance has more sufficient liquidity.
Secondly, MEME coin itself is also facing difficulties. Binance cannot rashly list the coin without seeing the formation of the community. I think Binance has made many steps in this regard. From their selection logic, we can see that they are adapting to this new version. I think they are doing a good job.
I think the value of this kind of community target is constantly being reshaped, and Binance is now actively involved in it. This is the current status of the historical process. Binance has its limitations, and the chain also has its limitations, but at least everyone has expressed a good attitude, mentality and values to accept this matter.
The second point is about the future. In the future, Binance will always be a place for large capital liquidity, there is no doubt about this. But there will be more and more liquidity on the chain, which is why I am optimistic about the chain project.
The future may be like this: even if the chain is not listed on Binance, there will be projects with a market value of hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars, or even higher. But there is a problem with these projects, that is, as a financial target, if it is to reach a certain actual standard, there must be a dominant force behind it, and the chain is no exception.
But I actually hope that pure community projects will have a higher ceiling in the future. Pure community projects like Neiro and ACT struggle with a market value of 20 million US dollars. I hope that there will be some changes in the future. For example, this kind of pure community project can attract some good funds to come in, and then it can reach a market value of 100 million US dollars, 200 million US dollars, or even 1 billion US dollars. I think this is a brighter future, and more funds may be willing to try on the chain.
But the exchange also assumes the role of providing greater liquidity and a safer trading environment. Maybe in the future, Binance will have well-designed projects like Neiro and ACT online, giving everyone hope. I think whether it is Binance or Chain, everyone will be able to find their own position in this ecosystem in the future and play their own advantages.
In addition, Binance also needs a wealth effect, whether it is the wealth effect of the general rise of altcoins or the wealth effect after Neiro and ACT are launched, which is why I still firmly hold these two targets. What Binance needs is the myth of the wealth effect, and there will definitely be a wealth myth in the secondary market. In this way, isn't it a benign interaction? There are wealth myths on Binance, and there are also wealth myths on the chain. There is also an intersection, that is, when Binance supports community projects, there is such an intersection.
I think this is a benign interaction in the future. Everyone can get the wealth effect on different platforms, and at the same time there is a certain intersection. This is a positive development direction.
TechFlow: This year, the Bitcoin ecosystem represented by ORDI once prospered, and it also gave the Eastern encryption forces the right to speak, but then it fell into a slump. In your opinion, what is the main reason why the Bitcoin ecosystem has not been able to rise now, and is there a chance for the Bitcoin ecosystem to rise in the future?
0xWizard:
I think the Bitcoin ecosystem has opportunities. But I have to admit that the market choices in the short term at this stage are not friendly to the Bitcoin ecosystem.
I can share some of the problems I see:
The first problem is that the Bitcoin ecosystem needs better innovation.Just like before, we saw some unprecedented things, such as writing content on the chain and tokenizing content, which is a very interesting innovation. But then the innovation seemed a little weak. If there is no innovation, the market will not accept it.
The second problem is that the liquidity of the Bitcoin ecosystem is now very fragmented.The various protocols are actually splitting liquidity, a bit like Ethereum's Layer2. There are people who play inscriptions, people who play runes, people who play Merlin, and people who play the recently appeared fractal Bitcoin. There is another group of people. Everyone is doing their own thing and has little to do with each other.
I deliberately sent a tweet at that time, which meant: the external liquidity of the Bitcoin ecosystem has not yet come in a large amount, but the internal liquidity is becoming more and more fragmented. What should we do?
I still think that the Bitcoin ecosystem is promising, but in order to break through in the future, I think we may first need a new story. You can't always tell stories about inscriptions, or stories similar to inscriptions. The stimulation of such stories has become weaker and weaker.
The second point is that the Bitcoin ecosystem needs to find a way to solve the liquidity fragmentation. Although I can't see a specific solution now, it is as difficult to solve as the Layer2 liquidity fragmentation problem of Ethereum.
We need a project that everyone recognizes, at least everyone in the Bitcoin ecosystem thinks that this thing is awesome. In this way, the funds in the Bitcoin ecosystem can push it to a very high market value, the exchange will also think it is awesome, and more people and communities will come in. This may be a direction to break through.
The third is to look at existing projects, such as Runes, are there any that can be listed on major exchanges? If they can be listed on major exchanges, this is the most direct wealth effect, and it may also bring a warming up of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
But I think the most needed is the first point, which is to bring fundamental innovation, and the exchange is in a follow-up state.
Deep Tide TechFlow: I also saw Kay's Twitter content. He said that behind the big results of the wizard, there is great pain. Can you share a few painful moments you have experienced before? How did you get through it?
0xWizard:
To be honest, I have experienced too many such moments. Now I feel palpitations when I look back on them. It's like on a sunny afternoon, you walk on a busy street, your heart keeps twitching, and you can't even walk normally. It's the feeling of not being able to exist normally in this world.
I have had such experiences many times. For example, on 519, I did Ethereum with leverage and almost exploded, but in the end it was a happy ending. By the end of 21, the amount of funds not only recovered, but also reached a new high. But when 3AC went bust in 2022, I lost almost 8 figures of USD in assets in just one month. This was a huge retracement, which was almost unacceptable to me.
I have always told everyone to think clearly whether they can accept the worst outcome of the transaction, but even I couldn't accept the result that time. During that time, I was in a state of palpitations. I couldn't walk normally on the road. When I opened the exchange software, no matter how the price went, I was numb.
And later ORDI, I held it from 7U to 3U. This is another torture. It was cut in half in half a year, and it was a large position. At that time, I pinned all my hopes on ORDI, which was actually a bad habit. Maybe it's because I am too subjective. When I make a transaction, you can hear my strong recognition and confidence in my logic, but this trait is that profits and losses come from the same source, so I am particularly unlucky when I am unlucky.
ORDI was trapped for half a year, and everyone was scolding it, including the OGs of Bitcoin, who said that inscriptions are worthless. You will constantly question whether you are wrong. This time, ACT also fell 80% three times in just half a month.
How did you get through it? I think there are several points:
First, I am more optimistic than most people. I have always been more optimistic than more than 99% of people. This personality advantage has really helped me, but even so, I still often feel so painful that I feel I can't continue trading, or even survive. But the sun will always come out, just like I tweeted, "No matter how deep the night is, always believe that the dawn will come." Every time I believe that I can stand up again, because countless experiences in the past have told me that I can stand up.
Second, seek external help. For example, during the time at ORDI, I wrote a tweet after watching Oppenheimer's movie, and I felt a little relieved after watching it.
What kind of person is Oppenheimer? He is handsome, a second-generation rich man. When his father died, he left him an inheritance equivalent to more than 100 million US dollars today. He is also a very smart person and went to Harvard at the age of 16. What was his life like when he was young, the father of the atomic bomb and a person who reversed the trend of World War II?
After watching the movie, I read all his information. He was close to collapse many times when he was young. When he was studying in the UK, he almost wanted to poison his tutor. When he saw his best friend had a girlfriend, he felt abandoned and even almost strangled his best friend with a belt. He would be so painful that he fell to the ground, twitching, and foaming at the mouth. When he was in his 20s, he wanted to kiss young women on the train. These were all due to the sexual repression of young men, plus the pain of his talent not being recognized.
You can see that even such a person has such unbearable moments, and he looks like a psychopath who should be locked up. But he finally came out. I was relieved. Everyone has their darkest moments, even those who seem particularly great.
How am I better than Oppenheimer? 99.99% of the people in this world admit that I am not as good as him. Why should I expect to endure less suffering than him and still get good results? This is impossible.
These are the two directions of inner seeking and outer seeking: inner seeking is to persevere, and outer seeking is to find some logic, facts or other people's experiences to find resonance.
The third point is to learn lessons and not let yourself fall into that state again. There is a universal principle: before making a transaction, ask yourself what the worst case scenario is, and then ask yourself whether the current position can accept this worst result. If you can accept it, hold or buy; if you can't accept it, reduce your position or don't buy.
These are the three most critical points: seek inward, seek outward, and avoid making the same mistakes again after reflection.
TechFlow: You once proposed the Three Laws of Bull Market Engine:
1. Old technology, new gameplay, without this, the snow is not sticky enough (fundamentals are not enough);
2. New narrative, new hope, without this, the slope is not long enough;
3. Batch generation of new assets;
Without this, the slope is not wide enough. Only when they have them at the same time, there will be such a shocking scene as in 2017/20. Can you explain these three laws in detail?
0xWizard:
We often say that "only by seeing the history clearly can we see through the future". I was very painful in the bear market, and I was thinking about what it would be like if the bull market came. We can only find answers from the past bull market, but not simply copying the ICO or DeFi model, but finding the commonality between them.
The first law: The cryptocurrency circle always needs to find new narratives and new tracks. Because when discussing something that no one else has seen, its ceiling is unlimited. When it rises to 1 billion US dollars, 10 billion US dollars, or even 100 billion US dollars, everyone thinks it is reasonable because they can always find corresponding reasons to explain its value. But if you are doing a DeFi project now, why should it be worth 1 billion US dollars? It is unreasonable, because the previous DeFi may not even be worth 600 million US dollars now. So you must have a new track, new hope, and new narrative.
This is why when many communities come to me, I think they need to think clearly about whether their upper limit is enough before participating in community building. It doesn't mean that you can make money if the community is strong enough.
The second law: It takes long-term accumulation. Whether it is ICO or DeFi, it takes a long time to accumulate and then develop. For example, it took Ethereum two or three years from its release to the prosperity of ICO. Looking at DeFi again, I went to archaeology and found that the concept of Uniswap (AMM) was proposed at the end of 2017 and the beginning of 2018. Hayden created Uniswap based on this concept. Everyone admits that the prosperity of DeFi is because Uniswap allows people to trade various tokens, which creates lending needs and brings more funds. It took almost two years from the concept to the real outbreak.
So the engine of this round of bull market cannot be the new technology that is suddenly proposed now, it must be based on the accumulation of the past two or three years. Just like the Meme Coin Super Cycle, they are all concepts proposed at the end of the last cycle, and now they are ushering in a big boom. AI Meme or inscriptions are essentially a branch of the MemeCoin boom and a new way of producing tokens.
This is "old technology, new gameplay", but the previous model cannot be completely copied.
The third law: must be able to generate a large number of new assets. ICO period can issue a large number of coins, DeFi period is also the same, inscription period can issue more than 20,000 inscription coins a day, AI is also the same, a bunch of AI Agents appeared. If no new assets emerge, there will be no spreading effect. Suppose there was only Ethereum during the ICO period, and there were no projects like Ant and NEO, would everyone go crazy? Wealth stories are spread one after another.
This also returns to the essence of the cryptocurrency circle: issuing assets. I have been in the cryptocurrency circle for so many years, from reading white papers in 2017 and 2018 to now, thinking about it, what is the advantage of the cryptocurrency circle over Web2 or the real world? It is the issuance of assets. This convenience of regulatory arbitrage has never been seen anywhere else.
To give a negative example, projects like Pandora cannot form a large number of similar assets. But AI Agent is different. Now there are AI Agents everywhere, and inscriptions were also inscribed by a bunch of projects at that time. This phenomenon can form a shocking force.
These three laws combined together are the real bull market engine. Just like the feeling when I heard that YFI rose 10,000 times in June 20, my heart was shocked and I immediately wanted to enter the market to make money. This is the result of the joint action of new narratives, long-term accumulation and a large number of new assets.
TechFlow: Looking through your Twitter history, you will find that the two keywords narrative and community are mentioned very frequently. What do you understand about the narrative and community of an asset?
0xWizard:
My understanding of narrative is this: to look at narratives, you need to go back to the farthest point of thinking. Don't just look at the descriptive words on the surface, just like he shows you a tiger, but you have to tell whether it is a real tiger or a paper tiger, you have to look at its flesh and bones. When I look at narratives, I always have to explore the essence behind them.
For example, when many people talk about AI Agent, they are all saying that AI can do this and that in the future. But I think we can't just think of this step, we have to think two, three, and four steps more than others. First ask yourself: What is the essence of MEME? What is the essence of on-chain assets? Then think about what is the essence of the AI track in the secondary market of the currency circle? Finally, you can understand the essence of AI MEME.
When I wrote the article "AI Renaissance", some people said it was "big and empty", but this is indeed the crystallization of my many years of experience in the cryptocurrency circle, and it is a conclusion derived from the most fundamental essence.
If your narrative is built on sand, the rising tide will wash it away, but if it is built on granite, it is indestructible.
This is my first principle of narrative: always dig one, two, or three more layers than others. Just like the semantic point of view of Wittgenstein in modern philosophy: our language makes us ourselves, and your way of thinking makes you yourself. If you always follow others, you are not yourself. Just like the original geometry, first set up axioms, then derive theorems, and finally draw conclusions.
Regarding the community, I have two important views:
First, the best is the global community. The Chinese community is indeed very strong, but a good target must be a strong English community and a strong Chinese community. The so-called English community actually includes many people from the East Eight District, such as Indians and Koreans, and everyone communicates in English. If there is only an English community, it won’t work, because the best investors and the best exchanges are in the Chinese community. But if there is only a Chinese community, based on experience, the upper limit of the market value is about 50-60 million US dollars, except for pioneering projects like ORDI.
Second, it depends on how many setbacks the community has experienced. You can’t just be bullish. A group of people shouting “buy” and “rise immediately” in Telegram is not a community.
I have been saying since the first day in the ACT English community that you must understand what ACT is and don’t get FOMO because of the price. If a long-term project cannot accumulate a group of people with faith, then it’s over. A community that only believes in price will fall apart once it falls.
But if there is a group of “brainless fans” like me who believe in their own logic, feelings for the community, secondary judgments and primary logic, then even if it falls 80% three times, it can’t be washed away.
A good community must be diverse, with a group of people who really believe in something.
What is a bad community like? It is a small group of unbelieving people trying to deceive others, and the deceived people themselves do not believe, hoping to deceive more people, and finally it becomes a competition of who can run faster.
TechFlow: The last question, what advice do you have for many players who want to make a difference on the chain?
0xWizard:
There are several important principles for playing on the chain:
Don't play with large funds;
The definition of large funds varies from person to person;
For example, if you have 100,000 US dollars, use 10,000 US dollars to play; if you have 1 million US dollars, use 100,000-200,000 US dollars to play; if you have 10 million US dollars, use 1 million US dollars to play. In short, use funds that you can afford to lose. This is because compared with traditional exchanges, on-chain exchanges are more risky.
Determine your own strategy;
I wrote three tradable currency strategies on Twitter, and many others are traps;
a) Hot stocks:
For example, the recent PINUT, LUCE, BAN, etc. can quickly reach more than 50-60 million US dollars, or even hundreds of millions of US dollars. The key is to judge how many people agree with the narrative and how hot it can reach. Generally, the poor ones can reach 30-50 million US dollars, and the good ones can reach 80-100 million US dollars. If you see it within 10 million US dollars, you can get on board. But if it has reached 30 million US dollars, don't get on board. Hot stocks usually fall by 80% when they fall. You can enter when they fall by 80%, but be careful of traps.
Don't go all in. If you place a position when each hot spot falls by 80%, the winning rate will be higher.
b) Blue chips and potential targets:
Such as ACT, POPCAT, etc., they are not based on hot spots, but have experienced many setbacks and community consensus building processes. This type of currency often falls by 80%, but has strong vitality. You should observe the community more, think about your own logic, and judge whether the project is feasible.
Every time it falls by 80%, it is an opportunity to increase your position. The best time to enter is when the market value is several million to tens of millions of US dollars.
c) Large-cap blue chips:
Generally, they are played after they are listed on large exchanges. The logic becomes the weight of judging funds and tracks, which is another secondary gameplay logic. For example, I dared to take over Neiro when it was 300 million US dollars. I think ACT still has a lot of room for development. They are all based on secondary logic. But you must play with Binance. If you can raise $1 billion without listing on Binance, don’t participate.
These principles and strategies are based on my years of experience and thinking. Everyone’s standards may be different, but it is important to have your own logic and judgment. Don’t blindly follow the trend, but think deeply about the logic behind each transaction.
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