From buying the bottom to going short and then re-entering the market, what did I experience?

Author: NingNing, independent researcher Source: X, @0xNing0x

After BTC exceeded 64,000, I followed the trading plan and gave up and repurchased the position. The sharp rise in Dogecoin in the past two days also made up for my short profit loss.

But I am still in a state of stiffness and dizziness. Bitcoin's crazy rise from $52,000 to $64,000 seems more like a black swan to me, shattering the original trading plan. I believe many people in the market feel this way.

After an in-depth discussion with community partners at the investment research weekly meeting yesterday, I have three new judgments, which I would like to share for everyone to correct:< /p>

1⃣After using OpenBB to decompose the factors of this wave of rise, we found that the core driving factor of this wave of rise is Cycle Trend (long-term trend, a four-year monetary cycle and Bitcoin production reduction cycle) and Cycle Component (short-cycle trend, seasonal cycle within the year). The specific analysis is as follows:

--Backtesting historical data, before the U.S. economic cycle confirms a recession, risky assets will experience a wave of hype. The current U.S. economic cycle is in the pre-recession stage, and history is repeating itself again. The Nasdaq index of major risk assets has hit a new high, and BTC has surged.

--Seasonal factor. There is nothing to say, there is a spring market almost every year;

--After the passage of the Bitcoin spot ETF, hot money from US stocks poured into this new asset type. The net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF in the past seven days, although not as good as the previous week, was still a net inflow of US$2.15 billion.

2⃣The nature of this rising market is the tail market of Pre-Bull (pre-Bull market), rather than the main rising wave of the real big bull market. One of the typical characteristics of the tail market is the collective surge of MeMe coins and the sudden FOMO sentiment contagion in the primary market.

3⃣Glassnode’s on-chain index shows that the market has entered a state of full speculation, but the duration of this irrational market state may far exceed the expectations of rational investors . According to the known information, the current bubble process is likely to continue until the Federal Reserve officially cuts interest rates in June this year. So instead of debating whether the market is bubbled or not, let’s think about how to structure your portfolio to get a piece of this bubble. We can’t be the ones who win the argument but don’t make any money.