最近持续下跌的比特币（BTC）今早再次跌至54,260美元附近，几乎抹去了周末的反弹涨幅。市场将近期的抛售压力主要归因于Mt. Gox的还款启动以及德国和美国政府涉嫌套现的大量比特币转账。
Mechanism Capital联合创始人Andrew Kang估计，比特币可能跌至最低4万美元，可能需要几个月的波动和下行趋势（恢复期）才能反弹。
然而，在普遍的看跌预期中，一位知名交易员观察到潜在的看涨因素，这些因素可能会推动加密货币市场创下新高，尤其是FTX的还款。
加密货币交易员Ash Crypto在推特上拥有近117万粉丝，他昨天指出：
“160 亿美元稳定币的流动性将进入加密货币市场。”
“人们担心 Mt. Gox 暴跌和其他看跌因素，但有一些因素会将加密货币市场推向新高。 FTX 计划向其债权人分配超过 160 亿美元。”
他解释说，FTX预计将于8月16日完成债权人对其重组计划的投票，法官将在10月7日之前决定是否批准还款计划。
如果获得批准，FTX计划在两个月内偿还债权人，可能在2024年第四季度至2025年第一季度之间。Ash Crypto认为，这个时机与预期的降息、美国FASB会计规则的实施以及美国总统大选完美契合，形成了加密货币市场上涨趋势的催化剂。他预测比特币可能会因此突破12万美元。
鉴于FTX的大多数客户都是加密货币爱好者，160亿美元的注入有望成为价格上涨的主要催化剂。
比特币预计将超过 120,000 美元，而以太坊（ETH）可能超过 12,000 美元，许多其他山寨币的价格可能会上涨 10 到 50 倍。
FTX 在本月稍早发布了最新的还款计划，称预估所欠金额约为112 亿美元，但在资产变卖后，约有145 亿美元至163 亿美元的现金可供赔偿，因此不仅能够实现全额退款，绝大多数用户（曾持有资金在50,000 美元以下的人）能够获得约118％ 的现金赔偿。
不过需要说明的是，该损失赔偿是以FTX 行使破产法第11 章当天的平台资金做计算，所以除非用户放在FTX 的资产是稳定币，否则实际上仍是大亏（BTC 当时一颗仅17,000 美元）
而要获得 FTX 的赔偿，债权人需要在指定期间内完成索赔申请。原订截止日期为昨日（15 日），但 FTX 巴哈马实体（FTX Digital Markets Ltd.）发送给客户的电子邮件显示，提交索赔的截止日期已经延长。
根据信件内容，FTX 已经决定将债权申请的截止日期延长至7月底或8月初。最初的截止日期定在2024年5月15日，这是FTX客户提交索赔并参与巴哈马清算程序的最后期限。
根据最新的通知，截止日期将与美国债权人批准第11章重组计划的投票截止日期保持一致，具体的新截止日期还未确定，但预计会在7月底或8月初。这意味着客户将有额外的10-12周时间来提交债权申请。
客户可以选择参与巴哈马或美国的清算程序，但不能同时参与两者。在6月份，客户将收到相关文件，有6-8周的时间来做出最终选择。
FTX 客户收到的电子邮件
无论选择哪种清算程序，客户预计将在同一时间点收到相同的赔偿。通知强调，大部分客户只需完成美国程序，除非有特别需求。
去年9月18日，FTX客户索赔入口网站Claims.ftx.com开放，用户可以提交索赔申请，完成KYC并提交债务证明。您可以登录账户确认当前的KYC进度。
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Cointelegraph