Author: Nancy Lubale, CoinTelegraph; Compiled by Wuzhu, Golden Finance
Since the Bitcoin halving on April 20, the price of Bitcoin has been consolidating in a wide range between $58,000 and $72,000. However, based on technical chart patterns and various indicators, the price of Bitcoin may be about to break out. The key question that remains is, when will Bitcoin break out of consolidation?
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
According to well-known cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital, Bitcoin could break out of consolidation in September.
In a July 30 X post, the analyst wrote,
“Bitcoin is still on track to breakout in September.”
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Rekt Capital
Rekt Capital explained that while Bitcoin failed to break out of the re-accumulation range in the 100 days following the April halving, such a breakout was “always unlikely.”
The re-accumulation range refers to the period when buyers accumulate more BTC in anticipation of further price increases.
From a technical perspective, bitcoin appears to be trading in a descending parallel channel, which would suggest further upside momentum if the price can reclaim $65,000, the analyst said.
“Holding $65,000 as support, Bitcoin will be able to revisit the top of this pattern over time. In the worst case, Bitcoin will rise to lows of $70,000 (blue circle). In the best case, Bitcoin will completely break out of this structure.”
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Rekt Capital
Independent analyst Jelle said that based on technical chart patterns, the price of Bitcoin could reverse and break through the $100,000 mark in the coming months. This is the target of a multi-year falling wedge.
Source: Jelle
Expectations for “explosive moves” in BTC prices continue, as suggested by Bitcoin’s volatility indicator.
For popular trader and analyst Matthew Hyland, the tightening of Bollinger Band conditions on the weekly timeframe suggests a major breakout is imminent.
The Bollinger Bands, a classic volatility and momentum indicator, are now at their “tightest” width since August 2023, when BTC/USD last traded around $30,000.
Hyland also acknowledged that Bitcoin has been consolidating in a narrow 25% range since March 13, and said he believes this long-term consolidation period is now over.
“Now it’s starting to contract, so the time is coming. At this point, it could come in a month.”
Hyland also observed that the bands are repeating a similar pattern seen in July 2023, following a 20% surge in Bitcoin prices over a four-month period.
“So far, Bitcoin’s weekly Bollinger Bands have only tightened twice: in April 2016 and August 2023. We are seeing the same thing again now. Since then, Bitcoin has risen by about 20% between August and November 2023.”
The analyst also noted that the Bollinger Band Width (BBW) indicator is at the “third tightest level ever,” supporting a possible breakout from consolidation.
Data from TradingView shows that the BBW has fallen to 20%, the last time this happened was in October 2023, before Bitcoin broke out of its multi-month trading range of $25,000 to $32,000 to top $40,000 by the end of 2023. BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView The current 20% gain comes after trading between $58,000 and $72,000 over four months, with occasional brief dips to $55,000.
“If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could hit a new all-time high of around $77,000 by November from its current price.”
This could still be “a few weeks away,” Hyland explained, adding that he believes Bitcoin is about to see an “explosive rise.”
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