If the price of Bitcoin remains unchanged for 6 years, can we hold on to it?

I have shared some of the views of Lin Yuan, a well-known A-share investor, in my articles many times. His views can often give people deep inspiration from a very unique perspective.

Recently, I saw another very interesting video of his. This video is an interview of Lin Yuan by Gelong.

In the interview, Gelong mentioned such an experience of Lin Yuan:

In 2007, the closing price of Moutai stock was 199 yuan, and the net profit of that year was 2.8 billion yuan. By 2013, the closing price of Moutai stock was 113 yuan, and the net profit of that year was 15.1 billion yuan.

In these 6 years, Moutai's net profit increased by more than 4 times, but its stock price did not rise but fell based on the annual closing price.

In this regard, Gelong asked Lin Yuan, how did he survive these 6 years? How did he insist on holding Moutai and not selling it?

Lin Yuan answered very straightforwardly, saying that for him, this is not enduring.

First, he bought Moutai at a price much lower than the stock price at the time.

Second, in these six years, he saw Moutai's net profit increase significantly, which made him more convinced that Moutai's true value is much higher than its stock price. In this case, he would not consider the stock price at all.

Here, it is necessary to add some background knowledge to everyone:

From the end of 2007 to the end of 2013, Moutai's stock price had two fairly large bull and bear cycles. In these two cycles, Moutai's stock price retracement exceeded 50%.

Combined with this background, we can see that Lin Yuan completely ignored two large price retracements of more than 50% in six years, and firmly held his optimistic investment target without moving.

This is exactly the same as some of Buffett's operations.

Furthermore, this is how I understand Lin Yuan’s two statements:

He didn’t feel tormented when the purchase price was far below the market price. I guess what he meant was: for him, if he bought an investment product at a very low price, as long as the subsequent price was much higher than his purchase price, he would not feel "tortured" psychologically, and would not feel the pain of loss.

When the actual value of an investment product is growing significantly and is significantly higher than its stock price, Lin Yuan is not worried at all that the stock price will always hover at a low level, and believes that there will be a day when it will show its value. At least he did it for 6 years without caring about the stock price.

After watching this interview, I immediately thought of the crypto world and myself.

If I count from the earliest purchase of Bitcoin and Ethereum to now, the price when I bought them was much lower than their current price.

But in this process, I really can't help but "suffering", because although I know that the long-term trend of Bitcoin and Ethereum prices is definitely bullish, when I think the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum (in the late bull market) are "too high", I still can't help but sell---that is what I often call bull market fixed selling.

Although I often talk about bull market fixed selling, I have also practiced this strategy in the past cycles and fortunately bet on the treasure every time. But in fact, my heart is walking on thin ice, because I really don't have such a big confidence whether I can still sell at the right position next time.

So far this year, I have read Dan Bin's book, Munger's book, and now I am reading Buffett's book. Frankly speaking, after reading these predecessors' books, I feel more and more that the profits from those bull market fixed selling were my good luck, not necessarily my strong judgment. Now after reading Lin Yuan's interview, I feel this even more strongly.

Now, let's think about Bitcoin and Ethereum in this way:

First of all, whether from the perspective of internal ecological development, community consensus, or external capital entry, compliance development, etc., I firmly believe that the value of Bitcoin and Ethereum is upward in the long run.

But if the story of Moutai happens to Bitcoin and Ethereum, for example, from this year to 2030, six years later, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum will still remain at $60,000 and $3,400?

I wrote in an article earlier that if the price of Bitcoin in this round of market does not exceed $100,000, I will not even think of selling it, and I will take it to the next expected bull market four years later.

But this idea actually has a default premise: that is, in 4 years, the price of Bitcoin will definitely exceed $100,000.

This is like Lin Yuan’s understanding of Moutai, our understanding and cognition of Bitcoin and this field!