Author: Fourteen Bacteria; Source: Fourteen Jun
Introduction
Recently, the data of Telegram robots and Miniapps have shown a clear downward trend.
Once upon a time, Telegram Miniapp became the focus of the blockchain field with the explosive growth of Clicker games.
However, behind the prosperity lies a crisis.
The TON Foundation over-relies on Clicker games in its support strategy. Although it has brought a surge in users and data in the short term, it has also planted the seeds of ecological imbalance.
When the novelty of users fades, the homogeneity and lack of depth of Clicker games gradually emerge, and the entire ecosystem begins to suffer backlash.
Now that the tide has receded, it is necessary to deeply reflect on the strategic mistakes of the TON Foundation and find a new narrative that can lead the next stage of development of the TON ecosystem.
Our statistics of BOT come from Telegram Apps Center, TON App, and The Open League (see Appendix)1. The trend of a sharp decline in MAU is unstoppable
In the past month, OGenLab has continuously monitored 820 Telegram projects.
From October 1 to October 31, although the data cannot be deduplicated, the cumulative number of monthly active users (MAU) reached 879,922,503.
But behind this huge number, there is a worrying sharp decline.
In one month, the total MAU decreased by 295,971,112 (not deduplicated), equivalent to a drop of 33%.
This significant drop reveals the rapid decline in user activity and reflects that the entire ecosystem is experiencing unprecedented challenges.
[Image source: https://x.com/OGenLab/status/1854060874304221435]Through the analysis of daily data, OGenLab found that this decline showed an amplifying trend. Especially for those large projects with more than 5 million users, the initial MAU decline was relatively slow and seemed to maintain a certain stability. However, as time went on, the decline of these projects began to accelerate, and even accelerated in the later period, which had a more profound impact on the decline of the overall MAU. This phenomenon shows that even the top projects with a large user scale can hardly withstand the impact of user loss, showing that the deep-seated problems within the ecosystem need to be solved urgently. 2. Structural changes behind the rise and fall of projects
Of the 820 projects monitored by OGenLab, 249 projects rose in October and 491 projects fell.
From the analysis of the bar chart, it can be clearly seen that the top and long-standing projects - represented by Hamster, Dogs, Catizen, etc., which have issued tokens - have fallen the most significantly.
These once-glorious star projects are now facing a sharp decline in user activity and participation, reflecting the weakening of their growth momentum and the fading of user freshness.
[图来源：https://x.com/OGenLab/status/1854060874304221435]At the same time, some emerging projects provided positive growth, injecting new vitality into the market. However, in terms of quantity and growth rate, the increase of these new projects is far from making up for the impact of the decline of old projects. Among projects with a user scale of less than 1 million, the number of declining projects is still greater than the number of rising projects. This shows that even in the field of small and medium-sized projects, the overall trend is still downward, and the market lacks enough new forces to reverse this situation. This phenomenon highlights the structural problems in the TON ecosystem: the attractiveness of old projects is gradually weakening, the growth momentum of new projects is insufficient, and the entire ecosystem is in urgent need of new stimulation and direction. How to provide more innovative and valuable applications while maintaining user stickiness has become an urgent issue for the foundation and developers. 3. Migration of project scale and degradation of user demand
In order to better understand the changes in the ecosystem, OGenLab divides the 820 monitored projects into multiple levels according to the number of monthly active users (MAU): more than 50 million, 10 million-50 million, 5 million-10 million, 2 million-5 million, 500,000-2 million, 100,000-500,000, 20,000-100,000, and less than 20,000. By observing the changes of these projects in October, some trends worthy of attention were found. 3.1. High-value projects flow to lower levels
Number of projects: decreased from 2 in week 1 to 1 in week 4.Direction: From week 3 to week 4, 1 project in the 50 million level was downgraded to the 10 million-50 million level. 10-50 million MAU level: Number of projects: decreased from 18 in the first week to 15 in the fourth week. - From week 1 to week 2, 1 project was downgraded to the 5 million to 10 million level;
- From week 2 to week 3, 2 projects were downgraded to the 5 million to 10 million level;
- From week 3 to week 4, another 6 projects were downgraded to the 5 million to 10 million level.
Number of projects: increased from 22 in the first week to 31 in the fourth week.Flow direction: On the one hand, high-level projects were downgraded to enter; on the other hand, some of the projects were further downgraded to the 2-5 million level.It can be clearly seen that the top projects are sliding down to the lower levels. The number of projects with more than 50 million users has decreased from 2 to 1, indicating that the user activity of these flagship projects is declining significantly. This trend has led to a decrease in the number of high-end projects and an increase in mid-range projects, reflecting that the ecosystem is undergoing a top-down contraction. 3.2. The level of mid-range projects has declined significantly
- 2 million-5 million MAU level:
The number of projects: increased from 35 in the first week to 41 in the fourth week, but the growth rate was relatively slow. From the 3rd week to the 4th week, 10 projects were downgraded from the 5 million-10 million level to this level;At the same time, 10 projects were further downgraded from the 2 million-5 million level to the 500,000-2 million level.- 500,000-2 million MAU level:
Number of projects: increased from 78 in the 1st week to 99 in the 4th week. Flow: A large number of projects were downgraded from higher-end projects, and some of them were downgraded to lower 100,000-500,000 MAU. Medium-sized projects were not immune to the impact of declining activity. The increase in the number of projects was mainly due to the downgrade of high-end projects, rather than their own growth. This shows that the pressure on medium-sized projects to maintain their user scale has increased, and user churn is obvious. 3.3. The number of small-amount projects has increased significantly
100,000-500,000 MAU level: - Number of projects: increased from 142 in the first week to 181 in the fourth week.
- Flow: Many projects were downgraded from higher levels, especially from 500,000-2 million and 2 million-5 million. In addition, some projects were further downgraded to 20,000-100,000 and <20,000 levels.
20,000-100,000 MAU and <20,000 MAU levels: - Number of projects: The number of projects in these two levels increased significantly. Among them, the number of projects in the <20,000 level increased from 84 to 161.
- Flow: There are many projects that have been downgraded from higher levels, especially from the 100,000-500,000 level. At the same time, there are also projects with declining activity, resulting in a surge in the number of projects in the lowest level.
The increase in the number of small projects is not a sign of ecological prosperity, but the result of the overall decline of projects. Projects of all levels generally face the problem of declining user activity. The influx of new projects is not enough to make up for the loss of users, and the ecosystem lacks fresh blood. 
[Image source: https://x.com/OGenLab/status/1854060874304221435]The above data clearly reveals the overall downward trend of the scale of TON ecosystem projects. From top projects to small projects, none can avoid the impact of declining activity. This trend reflects that the current ecosystem lacks user stickiness and innovation driving force, and urgently needs new strategies and narratives to stimulate growth and regain user trust. 4. Dilemma and highlights of the OpenLeague project
When discussing the development of various projects in the TON ecosystem, we paid attention to the OpenLeague project. Although it has a certain popularity and user base in the market, it still cannot avoid the trend of user decline, and even the decline is more serious in some aspects. In addition, there are good and bad projects within the project, and the quality is uneven. However, it is worth noting that there are still one or two bright projects that stand out and bring hope to the entire ecosystem. [Image source: https://x.com/OGenLab/status/1854060874304221435]The user decline trend is more obviousThrough data analysis of the OpenLeague project, we found that. - The overall user activity has declined: Compared with other projects, OpenLeague's users have declined more significantly, and the number of active users has continued to decrease. This may be related to the lack of continuous innovation and user participation mechanism in the project.
- Increasing competitive pressure: OpenLeague faces more intense competition in the same type of competitive and game projects. The emergence of emerging projects has diverted users, resulting in a reduction in its market share.
The quality of projects varies- A mixed ecology: The quality of sub-projects and activities within OpenLeague varies. Some projects lack clear positioning and high-quality content, making it difficult to attract and retain users.
- User experience needs to be improved: Some projects have deficiencies in design and function, and users have a poor experience during use, further accelerating user loss.
Despite the many challenges, there are still some outstanding projects in OpenLeague, such as "AKEDO Game" and "RentTycoon" showing darker green on some days and continuing to rise. 5. One whale falls and everything comes to life, or it will eventually return to zero
In order to have a deeper understanding of the user dynamics of the project, we studied the changes in the project in the week 30 days ago (September 24-September 30) and the most recent week (October 25-October 31). On the one hand, this helps us observe the trend of changes within the entire month; On the other hand, since the official data provided is the number of monthly active users (MAU), if the sum of the trend slopes of these two periods is closer to 0, the higher the suspicion that the project has brushed volume and lacks new users. [Image source: https://x.com/OGenLab/status/1854060874304221435]Analysis method
We defined the following indicators for two 7-day time periods:M1 (user change from September 24 to September 30): During this period, M1 is equal to the number of valid users on the last day of the period (not empty and greater than 10) minus the number of valid users on the first day of the period (not empty and greater than 10). M2 (user change from October 25 to October 31): Similarly, M2 is equal to the number of valid users on the last day of this period (not empty and greater than 10) minus the number of valid users on the first day of the period (not empty and greater than 10). In addition, we drew a two-dimensional coordinate system with M1 as the horizontal axis and M2 as the vertical axis, and added an auxiliary line x=-y to assist in the analysis. Coordinate Quadrant Interpretation
By plotting the project's data points in the coordinate system, we can evaluate the project's user trends based on the quadrant and position in which it is located. - First Quadrant (M1>0, M2>0)
Meaning: The project showed user growth in the week 30 days ago and the most recent week. Interpretation: These projects may have sustained growth momentum, with user activity steadily increasing, and are worthy of attention and follow-up. - Second Quadrant (M1<0, M2>0)
Meaning: The number of users of the project decreased in the week 30 days ago, but increased in the most recent week. Interpretation: If the data point is on the right side of x=-y, it means that the project has begun to reverse its downward trend and is expected to become a potential project. If it is on the left side of x=-y, it means that the growth rate is not enough to make up for the previous decline, and the project may still be in an unstable state. - The third quadrant (M1<0, M2<0)
Meaning: The number of users of the project decreased in both time periods. Interpretation: These projects have a clear downward trend, user activity continues to decline, and there is a high risk of termination. - The fourth quadrant (M1>0, M2<0)
Meaning: The project grew in the week 30 days ago, but fell in the most recent week. Interpretation: If the data point is on the left side of x=-y, it means that the decline of the project exceeds the previous growth, and the number of users may enter a spiral decline, which needs to be vigilant. Suspected brushing projectsThe sum of M1 and M2 is close to zero for projects with data points close to the origin and located near x=-y, indicating that the project's user changes lack real growth, there may be brushing behavior, and the actual number of new users is small. Projects located in the second quadrant and on the right side of x=-y, although they have declined before, have recently seen significant user growth, showing a rebound trend, and deserve further attention. Projects located in the third quadrant have continued to decline in users, and their vitality and improvement strategies need to be evaluated. Projects that need to be vigilantProjects located in the fourth quadrant and on the left side of x=-y have recently declined significantly and may fall into the dilemma of continuous user loss. Through the above content, we can briefly summarize:- User growth projects (quadrants 1 and 2) deserve special attention, as these projects show the potential for continued growth or rebound.
- User decline projects (quadrants 3 and 4) require in-depth analysis of the reasons for the decline and timely adjustment of strategies to win back users.
- Suspected brushing projects need to strengthen data monitoring to ensure the authenticity of the data and maintain the healthy development of the ecosystem.
6. Summary
At present, Telegram mini-program applications are facing unprecedented difficulties, mainly in two aspects: commercialization and content. Commercialization:
The current commercialization model is mainly selling volume and listing coins, and the core is traffic monetization. However, the challenge at this stage is that the sellers and exchanges that list coins have already purchased a wave of traffic, and the new traffic is not attractive enough for them. At the same time, a large number of tokens are generated in the game, but there is a lack of specific application scenarios and consumption mechanisms. After players obtain tokens, the only option is to sell them, which leads to the rapid decline of the project after listing coins. Content:
At present, most of the top games are mainly clickers and a series of fission tasks, and the games themselves lack playability. In the long run, users will form an inherent stereotype of Telegram games, and most of the players attracted are the type of Earn to Sell. To reverse this situation, it is necessary to create truly playable games, rebuild from the ground up, and rebuild the trust of users. The next bright new game star rising in the sky of Telegram will be a truly touching masterpiece. We also sincerely hope to see new content creativity and new commercialization models to give these games new vitality and lead users to the real game world. OGenLab is a passionate game studio, standing at the top of the wave of emerging tracks, pursuing infinite possibilities in the future. In the future, OGenLab will continue to pay attention to the data pulse of Telegram, and in the near future, it will also conduct in-depth analysis of the project's TON chain data. We have witnessed the fall of giant projects and the rise of emerging forces, but this is not enough to light up the whole world. Just as “after a long journey, you may think you have no way out, but when you turn around, you will find another village”, we hope to see the prosperity of Telegram application soon. 
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