Author: Trista Kelley, Founding Editor of DL News; Translation: Jinse Finance xiaozou
Arthur Hayes' first job was on the trading floor of Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong. In September 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. He was only 22 years old at the time. The days of exciting trading and multi-million dollar bonuses came to an abrupt end.
Young traders like Hayes who were eager for adventure were exhausted by the shock of regulation, compliance departments and the formal office culture. Later, he discovered cryptocurrency.
"When I read the Bitcoin white paper, it really resonated with me and coincided with some of my inner thoughts - such as how absurd the corrupt banking system is," he told DL News.
Ten years later, he became a billionaire after becoming the co-founder of Bitcoin exchange BitMEX. He pleaded guilty in a US court and was sentenced to six months of home detention and two years of probation. The cryptocurrency industry has begun to look a lot like the banking industry he once sneered at.
“It still has a real global and diverse group vitality. ” — Arthur Hayes
Financial giants including BlackRock and Franklin Templeton are offering retail investors cheap and safe ways to invest in cryptocurrencies. Fidelity wants to invest in Bitcoin for US pension funds. Hayes said it is still the same industry.
"It still has a real global, diverse group of people who are either from the financial sector or the technology sector. They want something different," Hayes said last week from his office in Singapore.
"What they want is unlimited upside, which is obviously very volatile and can get you out of the game quickly if you're not diligent. But at least there's the ability to either get your product fairly widely used or get fairly wealthy."
Hayes has the credibility of a crypto OG. He has also become one of the most prolific and followed market commentators in the field of cryptocurrency and beyond. Before the stock market crash on Monday, Hayes talked to DL News about the election, the financial industry's adoption of cryptocurrency, and his views on the price of Bitcoin.
1, About the US Election
Arthur Hayes: They think Trump is right about what he's saying and he's going to move things forward quickly. But whether it's Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, it doesn't really matter.
DLN: Why do you say that?
Arthur Hayes: Yes, the crypto industry has funded a lot of money. But I don't think crypto donations are enough to surpass JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citibank and Goldman Sachs. If you look at the employees of these institutions, they are all from these banks. So if Trump is elected and does what he says, that would be great, but I think he might have the same problems as his first term. You can talk beautifully and try all these policies, but if the entire government agency is against it, then in the end, nothing will be done.
2, on Bitcoin and monetary policy
Arthur Hayes: Both the Trump administration and the Harris administration will print money, but they will use different methods. So your cryptocurrency will go up, but the process of going up will be difficult, but we are sure of its ultimate direction.
3, About SEC Chairman Gary Gensler
DLN: Gary Gensler, Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), seems to be a big demon in this industry. Do you think so too?
Arthur Hayes: People are confused about the crux of the problem rather than the problem itself. You can listen to his lectures, he is a very smart man. When he sits in the government office, he becomes a complete fool. This is politics. What if someone replaces him? Gary Gensler is not the problem. The SEC is not the problem. If the set of regulations that you were unhappy with from the beginning remain in place, and if your elected representatives choose to focus on other things rather than creating a framework for cryptocurrencies, then getting Gary Gensler out of office will not do anything. All eyes are on Gary Gensler, but in fact, it can be said that he is irrelevant.
4, on the Bitcoin Reserve Plan
Arthur Hayes: I think it is almost impossible to accomplish, even if Trump is elected. You need a certain number of people to vote for it, you know, which will somehow have a negative impact on the US Treasury or the Federal Reserve or the attention of maintaining the US Treasury market.
DLN: Do you think this is a good idea, even if it will not be realized?
Arthur Hayes: Of course, it is a good idea. The United States should weaken the dollar and eventually buy Bitcoin and gold. This will solve a lot of problems in the United States. They will weaken the dollar, and the price of Bitcoin and gold will go up. Will the US government actively try to buy Bitcoin? I highly doubt it. They will buy gold first and then Bitcoin. But the trade is the same. Our motivation for doing this is the same. 5. BlackRock in Crypto Arthur Hayes: The whole point of crypto is that there are no barriers to entry. BlackRock should be able to use Bitcoin, and a Filipino who doesn't have access to financial services should be able to use crypto. Is the incentive structure strong enough? What is the theory behind how blockchain works? How to ensure decentralization? Are there any consequences of decentralization? I've written about this, like: like... passive disease, will it infect crypto, will they grab all the Bitcoins and then ossify the network? In theory, yes, it can happen. But it's still an open competitive environment. If you own BlackRock's product, you own a derivative of a cryptocurrency, you don't own the cryptocurrency - it's BlackRock that actually owns your cryptocurrency. So BlackRock's product is an attractive product for people, but it's not a cryptocurrency.
6, about the price of Bitcoin
Arthur Hayes: In this cycle, the price of Bitcoin will go high, very, very high. Maybe a few hundred thousand dollars, maybe a million dollars. There is too much debt to be rolled over. We are entering a period of change in the global monetary architecture. We don't know what the future will look like, but the institutions (and people) that have made great achievements in the past 80 years will be very resistant to change.
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