Is MeMe coin really swallowing up VC coins?

Author: NingNing, independent researcher Source: X, @0xNing0x

Is Meme coin really devouring VC coins?

No, this is just an illusion of the market's collective personality consciousness. This illusion is called short-term memory over-reliance in neural network learning, and it often occurs in the market analysis field.

This thread will use the method of quantitative comparative analysis to compare the data of MeMe coin and VC coin in 7D rolling volatility, correlation, and price seasonal factors during this round of rising cycle (from October 23 to now), and review the real relationship between them.

In order to ensure the consistency of comparative analysis, we divide MeMe coin and VC coin into 3 types: classical leading coins, emerging white horse coins, and newly listed star coins.

Classic MeMe coin leaders DOGE, SHIB VS Classic VC coin leaders AAVE, UNI, DOT, MKR

From the perspective of price seasonal factors, there is a strong resonance between the seasonal factors of the classic MeMe coin leaders and BTC, and the impact on prices is stronger at the beginning of the month. However, there is a certain time delay between the seasonal factors of the classic VC coin leaders and BTC.

From the perspective of the 7-day rolling volatility of prices, the structure of UNI is consistent with that of SHIB, and there are two abnormal volatility peaks in this round of rising cycle.

SHIB's two abnormal volatility peaks are almost synchronized with BTC, while DOGE's volatility peak has the same characteristics. This means that the property of the classical MeMe coin leader to hedge against the decline in BTC volatility is weakening.

The results of the correlation matrix once again verify the changes in the properties of the classical MeMe coin leader. During this round of rising cycle, the correlation between SHIB and BTC is 0.53, and the correlation between DOGE is even higher, reaching 0.72.

Summary: The MeMe coin attributes of the leading classical MeMe coins have degraded seriously, and they exist more as blue-chip tokens with good liquidity.

Emerging white horse MEME coins PEPE, FLOKI VS emerging white horse VC coins TIA, RNDR, Mobile

TIA's seasonality is stronger than PEPE and FLOKI. No wonder some market voices tease that modularization is the largest MEME in this cycle.

In terms of 7-day rolling volatility, TIA is also the undisputed leader, rather than PEPE, the brightest star among the current MeMe coins as expected.

It is also very interesting in terms of correlation. During this round of rising cycle, the correlation between TIA, Mobile and BTC is almost 0, while the correlation between PEPE and FLOKI and BTC is 0.61 and 0.46 respectively.

Summary: Among the emerging white horse coins, the secondary market characteristics of VC coins are more like MeMe coins.

Newly listed star MeMe coins BOME and SLERF VS newly listed star VC coins ENA and Aevo

Because they are new coins, we set the time interval from March 1 this year to the present.

During this period, the seasonal factor of BTC has a weak impact, the seasonal factor of Aevo is mainly negative, and the seasonal factor of SLERF has a strong impact.

Since April, whether it is VC coins or MeME coins, the 7-day volatility of newly listed star coins has a rapid downward trend.

In terms of correlation, it is still beyond expectations. Among them, BOME has a correlation of 0.61 with BTC, ranking first.

Summary: Since April, VC coins have been de-correlated with BTC, and the 7-day volatility is low, which is the main source of the market's FUD sentiment towards VC coins.

Summary

The secondary market price characteristics of VC coins and MeMe coins are not so clear-cut. There is no opposition between them, but rather that the targets in different life cycles in different time periods often bounce back and forth. Since April, the volatility of the newly listed star VC coins has decreased and the correlation with BTC is weak, making it difficult for secondary market traders to profit from them. This is the main reason for the market's FUD sentiment towards VC coins.

But as rational investors, we need to clearly understand that MeMe new coins > VC new coins is only a cyclical phenomenon that has only lasted for two months. Don’t easily say that there will only be MeMe coins in the future, and don’t fill your investment portfolio with MeMe coins. Overseas KOLs who use this wave of meme cyclical craze for marketing are not trustworthy; Western celebrities who use this wave of meme cyclical craze to issue coins will 100% RUG. Please remember that we are here to invest, not to gamble.