After Trump's victory, Bitcoin broke through 76,000, and the bull pattern was winning. However, compared with the price changes of Bitcoin, the most beneficial to the growth of the entire industry ecosystem is the altcoin season, and the industry expects more abundant growth. In the short term, we can see that the tokens of various tracks have been following the market to restart the heat. In these tracks that follow the market, the "TON ecosystem" is still closely watched by investors.
Since the Durov Paris incident 2 months ago, the TON ecosystem has fallen into crisis, or entered a new adjustment stage. Even though various meme projects and small game projects in the ecosystem are still constantly attracting new users and updating activity information, market sensitive people seem to have felt the "limited faith" of the TON ecosystem.
For example, from the market feedback, SOL has quickly rebounded and broken through 200 following BTC, but TON's increase is far less than this.
So for TON, what is the most beneficial thing for TON in this industry-focused election event? We can find some answers in Trump's ten major promises for cryptocurrencies. In the promises, we see that there are not only measures for Bitcoin, but more measures will represent the future "unblocking" of the cryptocurrency industry by the US dollar economy. For Telegram and TON, which have been in the fog for a long time, this will be a strong medicine.
Under the expectation of a smooth background, if the market continues to rise, what specific development expectations can we have for TON?
Favorable development background for TON
Before Durov's news, the growth of TON ecology was strong. Led by the several-fold growth of TON tokens, most of the ecological Defi tokens increased by about 10 times. In addition to the increase in tokens, the attention was even more outstanding. First, before Notcoin went online, various CEXs rushed to go online to include new TON ecological users, and then DOGS once again mobilized the enthusiasm of all Telegram users. These represent a huge market base. As long as the market rebounds, the rebound of TON ecological tokens will definitely keep up.
Only in the past two months of downturn, after the decline of TON tokens, the TVL and DEX trading volume in the ecosystem have all declined with the popularity, which is the most worthy data to think about at present.
But when we understand TON from the perspective of the long-term growth of the public chain, we may find that the current data performance is the data that will inevitably appear in the process of public chain growth. This first allows us not to worry about losing TON's position in the future public chain competition, but to continue to look at TON with a long-term perspective.
Just like the development trend of DEX, the user education of the entire industry is paving the way for high-speed public chains such as TON.
On October 28, according to SolanaFloor, the trading volume of Solana DEX reached $15.78 billion during the week, 77.91% higher than Ethereum's $8.87 billion, setting a record high lead over Ethereum. As a result, Solana's share of the trading volume of all-chain DEX reached 35%, setting a record high.
At the same time, according to data from The Block and DefiLlama, in October, the spot trading volume of DEX relative to CEX reached 14.12%, a record high since May 2023.
Such a trend continues to confirm a trend: with the popularity of high-speed chains, the boundaries between user trading behaviors in DEX and CEX are becoming increasingly blurred.
Under the multiple trends in the industry regarding on-chain liquidity supply, on-chain token market value management, and the prevalence of small and medium-sized projects, and under the influence of comprehensive conditions such as the increasingly blurred transaction scenarios for user transactions, we will eventually see that user behavior will become: more transaction behaviors and interactive behaviors will return to the original transaction exchange on the chain, or transaction behaviors with DEX and Web3-style interactions as the main ideas.
Compared with the current hot spots of background facilities in various chains, TON itself is an ecosystem with a more blurred boundary between DEX and CEX. Its Web2 interaction method first blurs the transaction category, and the TON wallet on Telegram further reduces the leapfrog entry threshold of Web3 native transactions to Web2, which means simpler and more convenient on-chain native transactions, or it may surpass the current transaction convenience achieved on Solana.
We can imagine that in the Solana environment, excellent DEXs can achieve a surge in trading volume in a short period of time. For example, Dune data shows that the total trading volume of Jupiter, the DEX aggregator of the Solana ecosystem, is close to US$334 billion, and it took Uniswap several times as long as Jupiter to reach US$10 billion.
In addition, the token price of Raydium, the most active DEX on Solana, has performed exceptionally recently. When BTC, ETH and most altcoins have pulled back, the token price has maintained an upward trend, which fully proves the stable advantages that DEX and Defi itself can have in the rise and fall of token prices.
For TON, such a development path already has both infrastructure and development ideas, and only a hot fire is needed.
The growth history of public chains
TON has been very impressive at the beginning of this cycle. However, in today's unclear cycle rotation, it is difficult for TON to have the same time advantage and external potential as Ethereum and Solana. Seeking stability, maintaining the improvement of infrastructure, and waiting for opportunities to explode at any time seem to be the main proposition of TON, just like TON has been quietly preparing for a year for the cyclical development in 2024. Tracing the growth of Ethereum and Solana, we can find a clear development idea for TON.
First of all, if the economic model of the public chain wants to enter a positive cycle, the core lies in the continuous occurrence of transactions, which represents all possible on-chain interactions.
On Ethereum and Solana, DEX and Defi are the mainstream, which are brought by users using DApp. Therefore, the development idea of bringing rich and diversified application types to the ecosystem is suitable for TON.
To summarize, Ethereum and Solana have gone through these steps:
1. The number of TGE tokens of ecological projects has increased rapidly
In short, taking advantage of the good cycle, a large number of ecological projects have issued tokens and launched DEX, or Defi can start business.
Ethereum entered this stage in 2018, and a wave was completely formed before Defi Summer, including the emergence of Uniswap, various wallet applications, major EVM projects, DEX, and Defi successively issuing coins to stimulate business growth.
Solana emerged as an Ethereum challenger during Defi Summer. In the early days of the ecosystem, a large number of projects were promoted by the foundation. Even though the chain was not perfect at this time and there were not many interactions on the chain, Solana's stimulation to the ecosystem continued, even though the impact of the SBF incident did not completely stop.
At the beginning of this cycle, the amount of tokens in the TON ecosystem surged, and the popularity and growth of tokens were also very impressive, which is very similar to the corresponding stages of Ethereum and Solana.
2. Defi TVL Growth
After the TGE of a large number of ecological project tokens, the most direct impact is TVL. The native applications of the public chain are all related to token transactions, and the Defi category accounts for 90%. The listing of tokens on DEX and the opening of Defi business will bring lock-up, so TVL data is the second inevitable data for the growth of the public chain.
Each token launched on DEX must add a trading pool, which is often the first locked fund. If Defi business interactions are carried out, such as lending and depositing coins, token staking will inevitably occur, which is the second basic action for TVL growth. This action will be stimulated by token airdrops, mining, and interest on deposits and loans.
Ethereum received dual stimulation from TGE and the surge in Defi tokens in Defi Summer, and TVL increased by about 100 times. In the later period, as the price increased, TVL soared again. Solana's growth comes from the ecosystem heat in 2023 and the airdrops and TGE of ecosystem projects in 2024.
TON's TVL rose to 700 million US dollars in the past six months, but it did not break through 800 million US dollars and began to pull back. This is the result of the retracement of the ecosystem heat. At the same time, like Ethereum and Solana, after the first growth, it needs to return to the richness of the growth of ecosystem application projects. Ethereum and Solana took another 2 years. How long will TON take?
3. DEX and Defi’s rich accumulation
Ethereum and Solana completed the accumulation of richness in 2 years, one was the bear market winter in 2018, and the other was the heat withdrawal after Defi Summer.
At this stage, Uniswap V1 on Ethereum matured, MakerDAO and AAVE appeared, Cruve and Compound started, Sushiswap also quickly followed up, and Farm mining projects appeared one by one. These projects have contributed to the maturity of DEX and Defi. By the second round of application development, DEX such as Uniswap had iterated at least two versions, and Defi such as AAVE had expanded from a single chain to almost all chains in the EVM system.
During the accumulation of Solana, DEX such as Raydium and Jupiter also appeared, as well as Defi with a large number of SOL tokens pledged. Therefore, the maturity of these applications is necessary, which represents a more convenient and quick use of services for users, and will also lock users' real money on the public chain.
TON is still early to mature. Currently, DEX has a relatively simple function and the number of Defi is small. The first step before waiting for the opportunity to explode is to increase the diversity and maturity of Defi.
TON's first step in growth
In the past year, TON experienced the first increase in the number of ecological project tokens. A large number of tokens and small and medium-sized projects started listing, airdrops, and IEOs. After that, TVL grew rapidly. This time, after the TVL and price fell, the heat decreased, and the ecological projects would also be affected. Trust needs to be rebuilt in the future. The more it is at this time, the more it is required. In this round, it is necessary to have practical help for ecological diversification, that is, it requires the maturity of DEX and Defi.
In reality, TON is also at this stage, which is also the first step of TON's growth.
What we can see is that Ethereum and Solana's DEX have been very mature in the cycle, so what is the current situation of TON? How much difference is there, and where is the difference?
TON's performance and pressure-bearing capacity are the only ones that can stand shoulder to shoulder with Solana among all the current public chains, but the DEX of TON's ecosystem cannot match the saddle.
Telegram has a built-in centralized trading pool to complete the recharge of stablecoins and TON, and then complete the exchange of TON and other tokens. The operation experience is consistent with the flash exchange of CEX. This function is the first function of Telegram's Wallet. The second function is to complete the interaction with the chain through the TON public chain wallet TONSpace. The experience is basically the same as using MetaMask on PC and mobile terminals. If you need to exchange tokens, STON and Dedust are more commonly used in the ecosystem, but the functions are basically similar to Uniswap V1.
This reflects the shortcomings of TON in DEX. If Telegram Wallet takes on the CEX experience, TONSpace and DEX can interact on PC and mobile terminals, and Telegram's MiniApp and Bot will also be the trading front end of DEX or CEX functions. These designs meet the optimization of trading experience, but the native interaction part on the back-end chain is obviously backward.
If Solana and DEX on Ethereum can only provide simple AMM pools and the same exchange capabilities as Uniswap V1, the business richness of Defi on Ethereum and Solana will be reduced by at least 50%.
On Ethereum, Defi is mostly an extension of DEX functions beyond financial scenarios. After Uniswap's initial iteration of the design of LP in AMM, Defi on Ethereum has more new businesses or directly copied business models (based on liquidity mining, deposit interest, upgraded to multiple liquidity pools, etc.). The same is true for Solana. Being an LP in DEX and a high-level liquidity provider on a dedicated liquidity platform is also one of the best options for asset holders today.
Therefore, from the perspective of project development, for DEX on high-speed blockchains, it is important to provide transaction liquidity or modularize transaction functions so that the advantage of liquidity becomes the reason for user selection.
For transactions on TON, the front-end entrances must exist in Telegram. DEX still needs to increase the refinement of its business like Jupiter, Balancer, etc., to achieve a balance among all users, whether users, token providers, liquidity providers, or platform developers. Each role needs certain refined functions to cooperate.
Compared with DEXs such as Uniswap, Balancer, and Jupiter, the development of DEX on TON in the direction of supplementing DEX functions or Defi functions has become a potential necessity.
The currently known on-chain transaction middleware LayerPixel has launched the first step of DEX function repair PixelSwap based on the function of Balancer. For DEX, airdrop is the fastest action to attract users. In the new round of actions, LayerPixel said that PixelSwap has started the airdrop plan, and the TGE time of its token PIX is determined to be Q4. In the face of the changes in the current TON ecology, perhaps PixelSwap can still be steadily promoted in the short term like Raydium.
LayerPixel is a DeFi solution designed for Telegram Mini App, which can achieve seamless integration of Defi and Telegram Mini Apps. It is officially called TON's Layer 1.5. It can provide a multi-modular functional combination including wallets, DEX (multiple trading algorithms) services, and oracles. PixelWallet focuses on account abstraction, and Pixacle can provide fast and accurate price data for DApps and smart contracts in the ecosystem.
Pixelswap is a DEX based on weight pools, which has the same functions as Balancer and supports LBP asset issuance. Moreover, this type of Dutch auction issuance method is suitable for small and medium-sized projects with low FDV. The most common projects in the Telegram ecosystem are games/GameFi projects, which is why it can meet the Defi needs of the TON ecosystem. LBP asset issuance method makes it easier for small and medium-sized projects to complete token issuance in the early stages and maintain a more reasonable transaction price.
During the period of rapid development and rapid growth, ordinary DEX is the mainstream, but once it enters a downward trend, the price of tokens in DEX is more difficult to make a market than CEX. At this time, the more sophisticated the design, the more win-win it can achieve. For the B side, it is more suitable for control. For the C side, it also makes the unofficial LP of DEX more like the mature LP in the centralized exchange, which can actively guarantee the yield of funds and isolate risks, as well as price stability.
At this point in time, when the growth is corrected, this type of DEX appears appropriately.
In addition to PixelSwap, the liquidity sharing between DEXs on TON and the possible liquidity hedging structure between various Defis also need to be stable. After the project issues tokens, it cannot establish pledge mining or multiple types of coin deposits and financial management in most Defis.
One of the reasons for the rapid increase in the amount of tokens locked on Solana is that lending projects, stake and restake projects are following the popular projects to add projects, such as Marginfi and Meteora on Solana. Almost all new tokens on Solana have taken the initiative to increase the token pool. Although most tokens have no financial returns, the platform has given incentives such as points or airdrop expectations, which also allows investors to deposit a large amount of assets to fight for airdrop expectations. TON will have the same effect as long as it follows the same method.
Written at the end
Before the Durov incident, we had very high expectations for TON, but the decline in the popularity of the ecosystem has caused pain to ecological projects and investors. However, this is already a familiar rhythm in the industry. There are always investors who insist on projects for a surprisingly long time. No matter when the next opportunity to ignite comes in the future, a week or a few months, it is time for builders to enrich the ecosystem.
At this stage of TON, users and projects will gradually realize the difference between new DEX and new functions, or one day they will find that new DEX like PixelSwap has attracted a lot of TVL and established many staking pools, which will show that the ecosystem is ready for another growth, ready to cope with the growing trading volume, the continuous issuance of new projects, and the rapid increase of liquidity pools and liquidity mining.
Brian
Catherine
Davin
Jasper
Aaron
Hui Xin
Kikyo
Alex