Legendary trader admitted his mistake! Bitcoin surged and "accidentally" outperformed the Japanese yen, and the foreign exchange market carry trade did not occur...

FX168 Financial News Agency (Asia Pacific) reported that legendary trader and BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes admitted his mistake on Monday (September 23). The "yen carry trade" that was expected to happen last week did not happen. After the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 50 basis points and the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged, Bitcoin unexpectedly outperformed the yen over the weekend.

Arthur wrote: "I was wrong about the weakening of the yen. Bitcoin performed well over the weekend. What are you waiting for? (LFG), let the good times continue. It's time to trade some memecoins."

He gave a speech at the cryptocurrency TOKEN 2049 conference last Thursday, warning that the Fed's launch of a rate cut cycle would lead to the return of yen carry trades to the market, which would in turn damage the U.S. stock market, Nasdaq, S&P 500, and even real estate and U.S. Treasuries.

But the expected yen carry trade did not happen after the Bank of Japan kept the interest rate unchanged at 0.25%.

Extended reading: Heavy signal! Legendary trader: Fed rate cuts and yen carry trades may set off a "financial market disaster"

At the end of the Asian session on Monday, USD/JPY maintained a bullish trend at 143.85.

FXStreet analyst Manish Chhetri said that Bitcoin broke through the $61,000 rising trend line and the 100-day exponential moving average last Wednesday (the Fed decided to cut interest rates). Over the next four days, Bitcoin rose 3% and found support near the key psychological level of $62,000.

As of Monday, Bitcoin continued to trade above $63,800.

If the psychological support of $62,000 continues to hold, Bitcoin could continue its upward move and retest its daily resistance at $65,379.

Further supporting Bitcoin’s rise is the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, which indicates a bullish crossover on the daily chart.

The MACD line (blue line) moved above the signal line (yellow line), giving a buy signal. It shows the green histogram bars rising above the zero line, also indicating that Bitcoin’s price could see upward momentum.

Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart shows that Bitcoin is not yet overbought as it is trading at 63 but is close to the overbought level of 70. If it enters this zone on a close, traders are advised not to add to long positions, although the rally may continue. If it enters the overbought condition and then exits back to the neutral level of 50, it will be a sign of a deeper correction.

However, if Bitcoin fails to find support around $62,000 and falls below the September 17 low of $57,610, it could extend its 3% decline to retest its daily support around $56,000.

Source: FXStreet

It is worth noting that in addition to the rise of Bitcoin, crypto traders are also closely watching whether the "Altcoin Seasons" will make a comeback. That is, after Bitcoin returns to the bull market, the rise will flow to other blue-chip cryptocurrencies, especially the US blue-chip public chain Solana token SOL.

Source: CoinMarketCap

FXStreet analyst Ekta Mourya said SOL began climbing in October 2023 to a high point in March 2024. Since then, the altcoin has pulled back to $146.88. As an Ethereum competitor, SOL may rebound to $160, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from the $210 high in March 2024 to the $110 low in August 2024.

SOL faces resistance in the imbalance zone between $149.30 and $155.53, and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator shows that the SOL price trend has positive potential momentum.

As shown in the daily chart, SOL may find support in the area between $134.45 and $141.18. Looking down, this imbalance zone is a key support area for SOL.

Source: FXStreet