Musk officially supports Trump. Analysis: Trump's attack subverts everything

Golden Weekly is a weekly blockchain industry summary column launched by Golden Finance, covering the week's key news, mining information, project dynamics, technological progress and other industry dynamics. This article is one of the news weekly, taking you to a look at the major events in the blockchain industry this week.

Headlines

▌Musk officially stated after Trump was shot: I fully support President Trump

Soon after Trump was shot, Musk officially supported Trump on the social media platform X. Musk said, "I fully support President Trump and hope he recovers soon." For months, people have been speculating whether Musk would support him. Yesterday, it was reported that Musk donated to a super political action committee dedicated to helping Trump enter the White House. Musk also said that the director and leader of the Secret Service should resign.

▌Analysis: Trump's attack subverts everything, Biden's gaffe is no longer relevant

The Telegraph article pointed out that Trump will announce his running mate at the Republican National Convention next Monday. The already strict security measures may be further strengthened to deal with major security breaches. But Trump's supporters will also use different words. Trump's supporters have claimed that this assassination attempt is his latest battle to "save America", and this argument will now dominate the campaign. After the attack, Trump said, "It is incredible that this behavior happened in our country." The subtext of this sentence is obvious: America is broken, and he will fix it with the help of his supporters. This shooting will subvert an already turbulent campaign. Any remaining doubts that Trump will win the election are now fading, and Biden's gaffe earlier this week now seems irrelevant.

▌The total TVL of the prediction market sector exceeded 77 million US dollars, setting a record high

On July 10, DefiLlama data showed that the TVL of the prediction market sector was 77.42 million US dollars, a record high. Among them, Polymarket topped the list with a TVL of 47.69 million US dollars. The other protocol platforms with TVL exceeding 1 million US dollars include Azuro, Gnosis Protocol V1, Lumi Finance, Augur, EtherFlip, and WINR Protocol.

▌Analysis: Bitcoin futures term structure indicates bullish sentiment

Golden Finance reported that cryptoslate released an analysis article stating that the prices of Bitcoin futures contracts on major exchanges showed a gradual upward trend. The futures term structure chart shows how futures prices on Binance, Bybit, Deribit, Huobi, and OKX have steadily increased from August 2024 to June 2025. This ongoing upward trend indicates that the market expects Bitcoin prices to rise over the next year. The chart starts at around $58,000 for the August 2024 contract and gradually increases, peaking at around $65,000 for the June 2025 contract. Notably, Deribit leads with the highest predicted price, indicating that the market is confident in the futures market on this platform. In contrast, Huobi's prediction is slightly more conservative, reflecting different market sentiments among exchanges. The upward trend in futures prices may mean that investors remain confident in the long-term value of Bitcoin after the halving in April 2024. Historically, halving events have led to significant price increases due to supply reductions. Current futures pricing fits this historical pattern, and prices are expected to continue to rise. Market participants should consider these forecasts when developing strategies for the coming months, as the futures term structure can provide insight into market expectations and potential price movements.

▌United Nations report: Bitcoin mining has increased global energy consumption 34 times in 8 years

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) recently released its latest "Digital Economy Report 2024", which stated that although digitalization has driven global economic growth, its impact on the environment is also becoming increasingly serious. The report stated that it is estimated that in 2022, the energy consumption of global data centers will be equivalent to that of France, and global energy consumption generated by Bitcoin mining has increased by about 34 times between 2015 and 2023. This puts tremendous pressure on local power grids. For example, data centers in Singapore accounted for about 7% of the country's electricity demand in 2020, while in Ireland, this proportion was as high as 18% in 2022.

Policy

▌The British Prime Minister will appoint Tulip Siddiq as the UK Financial Minister, whose responsibilities include regulating crypto assets

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will appoint Tulip Siddiq as the UK Financial Minister, a position that belongs to the Treasury, making her a key figure in regulating and advocating for key financial services industries. People familiar with the matter said that Siddiq, who has been a member of parliament since 2015, is expected to be appointed as the Economic Secretary of the Treasury. This is the equivalent position she held in Starmer's shadow cabinet. The position is called the British Financial City Minister, referring to the City of London and the broader financial services industry in the UK. Its responsibilities also include regulating financial technology, crypto assets and debt management policies. Earlier news, Tulip Siddiq said that if the Labour Party wins the election, it will be committed to transforming the UK into a global tokenized asset center.

▌The U.S. SEC abandons investigation into Bitcoin L2 developer Hiro

According to a document on Friday, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission abandoned a three-year investigation into blockchain software developer Hiro Systems (formerly Blockstack), which raised $70 million through token sales between 2017 and 2019.

▌The U.S. CFTC, Department of Justice, FBI and other federal agencies will jointly combat crypto scams

On July 13, the U.S. CFTC and the National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team (NCET) of the Department of Justice (DOJ) held the first Fraud Disruption meeting this week to address crypto scams such as pig-killing trays. Such scams cause billions of dollars in losses to the American people each year, making them a key enforcement focus. Agencies participating in the meeting included the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the Social Security Administration, the U.S. Treasury Department, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), the U.S. Postal Inspection Service, the U.S. Secret Service, the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia, the U.S. Attorney's Office for Massachusetts, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam stressed the urgency of combating these schemes, saying, "It is shocking to hear countless stories of Americans being targeted by scams by global criminal organizations." He emphasized the CFTC's commitment to strengthening customer protection initiatives against retail fraud. The meeting focused on prevention strategies, technical disruptions of fraud, and cooperative law enforcement efforts. Participants also launched an anti-fraud campaign to alert Americans to emerging fraud threats.

▌Nigerian court to rule on Binance tax evasion case on October 11

The Nigerian capital Abuja High Court will rule on Binance tax evasion case on October 11, 2024. According to it, Binance faces four charges of tax evasion, including failure to register for tax with the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) of Nigeria. According to local media reports, Binance's lawyer Ayodele Omotilewa appeared in court on Friday, July 12, and pleaded not guilty to all four charges before Judge Emeka Nwite. Omotilewa urged the judge to dismiss the charges, arguing that the case lacked substance, similar to the previous dismissal of charges against Binance executives Tigran Gambaryan and Nadeem Anjarwalla. Judge Nwite decided to adjourn the case until October for further deliberation and review of the evidence provided. This gives the defense and prosecution more time to prepare their respective cases.

▌Nigerian crypto people suggest regulating Bitcoin and Ethereum as commodities

July 13 news, in view of a recent court ruling in Illinois that classified Bitcoin and Ethereum as commodities, Nigerian stakeholders urged the Nigerian SEC to adopt a similar approach in its regulatory framework. Lucky Uwakwe, chairman of the Blockchain Industry Coordination Committee of Nigeria (BICCoN), said that this approach would provide clear guidelines to creators on where they should seek regulation. “The SEC should bear in mind the need to formulate rules that define the asset class of crypto assets or subdivide the respective cryptocurrencies into asset classes and explain to the public how such cryptocurrencies qualify as securities or commodities.” Uwakwe pointed out that while both the U.S. SEC and CFTC agree that Bitcoin and Ethereum are commodities, the distinction between proof-of-stake (PoS) and proof-of-work (PoW) protocols could change the classification of a particular crypto asset.

Blockchain Applications

▌Vitalik calls on the industry to work together to launch ERC-3770 and ERC-7683

On July 9, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin demonstrated the current interface for depositing to Polymarket on the X platform and the comparison of the interface that should be presented, and called on the industry to work together to launch ERC-3770 and ERC-7683. It is reported that ERC-3770 aims to improve the cross-chain user experience. Specifically, ERC-3770 makes the address a complete "how to pay me" identifier again by making the chain information part of the address. This improvement helps to simplify the cross-chain transaction process, allowing users to handle cross-chain payments more intuitively and conveniently. ERC-7683 is a new cross-chain intent standard proposed by Uniswap Labs in collaboration with Across Protocol, which aims to establish a unified framework for specifying intent-based systems for cross-chain operations.

▌Circle announced that the Euro stablecoin EURC will be introduced to Base

Circle announced that the stablecoin EURC will be introduced to Base, which is the first euro-backed stablecoin in Base. EURC is issued by Circle and has now joined USDC. USDC is the largest stablecoin on Base, with a circulation of more than $3 billion as of July 9.

▌Worldcoin announced the launch of the World Chain developer preview

Worldcoin announced the launch of the World Chain developer preview, which provides global developers with the opportunity to start building World Chain before the launch of the World Chain mainnet. Remco Bloemen, head of protocols at the Worldcoin Foundation, said that with the World Chain developer preview, developers will be able to deploy infrastructure on a "gated mainnet" because World Chain skipped the testnet.

▌Vitalik: Ethereum network should respond to 51% attacks in a more automated way

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin advocated for pushing the Ethereum network to be better prepared for 51% attacks in his keynote speech at the ETHCC in Brussels. He believes that an automated response to such attacks should be prepared, which will reduce the pressure on the social layer. A potential response to such an attack is for honest validators to move to a fork of the chain, and current plans will rely heavily on social consensus, with community members working together to agree on the fork. However, Buterin believes that it would be better if the network could be better prepared for such a response. He said that this response is largely automated and planned in advance. Buterin also advocated for increased adoption of light clients in the Ethereum infrastructure layer, especially wallets. He said they should also support verification of zk-EVM to provide further support for the Layer 2 network. In addition to this, he also believes that the protocol should be further simplified to make life easier for developers and users.

▌Bitcoin L2 network Stacks has completed the code writing of the Nakamoto upgrade

The Foundation of Bitcoin L2 Network Stacks said on the X platform that the code writing of Nakamoto has been completed ahead of schedule (July 15), and is currently undergoing internal and external audits, testing, and bug fixes. It is reported that the Nakamoto upgrade will separate the block production schedule of Stacks from that of Bitcoin, and will introduce a new way of producing Stacks blocks and update its transfer proof consensus algorithm. The Stacks Nakamoto upgrade will enable transaction speeds of around 5-10 seconds, which is about 100 times faster than the current transaction speed.

Cryptocurrency

▌Machi Big Brother has sold all BLUR, losing $3.16 million

According to Spot On Chain monitoring, Machi Big Brother has sold all BLUR, losing $3.16 million. In the past 24 hours, he deposited all 18.4 million BLUR ($3.13 million) into Binance, causing the price to fall after each deposit. Currently, he holds: 275 million BLAST ($4.45 million), with an estimated loss of $1.5 million; 8.8 million FRIEND ($1.71 million), with an estimated loss of $13.8 million.

▌Tether CEO: USDT should be considered a digital dollar

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino posted on the X platform that the stablecoin USDT is a technology developed by Tether in 2014. It is now used by many people and adopted by multiple governments. USDT is used by hundreds of millions of people around the world, especially in emerging economies, so it is no longer just a "cryptocurrency" and should be considered a digital dollar. The real innovation is that through USDT, Tether has established a checking/savings account for all populations living in countries with extreme inflation and insufficient banking services, bringing checks and balances to the financial industry.

▌The sustainable energy utilization rate of Bitcoin mining reached 56.2%, a record high

Data shows that the sustainable energy utilization rate of Bitcoin mining reached 56.2%, a record high. (Bitcoin Magazine)

▌Analysis: If BTC rebounds to $72,300, it will trigger $5.6 billion in short liquidation

According to data released by on-chain analyst Ali on the X platform, if Bitcoin triggers a U-shaped rebound to $72,300, there will be up to $5.6 billion in liquidity in the market that will encounter short liquidation.

▌Yat Siu: Animoca Brands currently has more than 500 investments, and the NFT market will recover

Animoca Brands co-founder and executive chairman Yat Siu expressed the following views in the latest interview: 1. Thanks to Telegram and TON, I believe that in the next 12 to 18 months, we will see more than 100 million users joining Web3, because distribution channels such as Telegram are launching games. 2. The biggest regulatory challenges facing Web3 companies are mainly in the United States, Hong Kong, Japan and Southeast Asia. The Asian market is very friendly to Web3 and the rules are quite clear. 3. It is currently in the early development stage of the metaverse. 4. Animoca Brands currently has more than 500 investments, including games, education and distribution. There are about 160 investments in the game field, and more than 70 investment transactions have been completed in the education field. 5. NFT currently has a monthly trading volume of about US$500 million. Usually after the summer, when market activity picks up, we will see more trading volume and activity. The market is also seasonal, and generally speaking, all markets are like this.   6. Animoca is a bit like DAO. It does want to go public at present. This is a fact, and it has indeed said that it may be in 2025 or 2026, so it is not just 2025, but in between. There is still a lot of work to be done at this stage, such as determining the company's location, moving out of Australia, deciding which market to list, and hiring consultants. It is impossible to list a company in one month. It takes some time.

Important Economic Dynamics

▌Fed Mouthpiece: Powell's shift hints that interest rate cuts are imminent

Fed Mouthpiece Nick Timiraos pointed out in the article that Fed Chairman Powell said at a hearing on Tuesday that the trade-off between reducing inflation and maintaining a solid labor market is changing. This cautious but important shift has brought the Fed one step closer to cutting interest rates. "Rising inflation is not the only risk we face," Powell said. "We have seen a clear cooling of the labor market in many ways. This is not the source of the current general inflationary pressure in the economy." This assessment is noteworthy because Fed officials have long believed that an overheated labor market is the main risk in the process of suppressing inflation. Powell admitted that he would not have made such a judgment just two months ago. Indeed, Powell was more cautious in his comments at a conference in Portugal last week, before the Labor Department released its June jobs report.

▌The probability of a Fed rate cut has risen significantly, and the first cut in September is almost certain

According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 91.2%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 8.8%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 7.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 84.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 8.1%.

▌Fed Daly: The economy shows that one or two rate cuts this year are more appropriate

Fed Daly said that the recent inflation situation is a relief, but progress will not be smooth sailing; inflation is expected to gradually decline, and the labor market is also gradually slowing down; the economy looks to be on the road to "more or less" one or two rate cuts this year; more information is needed before taking the next step completely; so many people are talking about the labor market, which is a pretty big signal from the Fed; the labor market has slowed down, but it is still solid.

▌Coinbase: The U.S. economy may peak in the second quarter of this year

Coinbase released a weekly report saying that the U.S. economy may peak in the second quarter of 2024. If the U.S. economy then falls into a recession, retail investors may be reluctant to hold new stock or cryptocurrency positions. In addition, the report also pointed out that the US election in November is likely to trigger more fiscal expansion regardless of which candidate wins. This is a strong motivation to buy Bitcoin as an alternative to the traditional financial system.

▌Sources: Russian President Putin may make a major statement on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in the next few days

BITCOINLFG revealed on the X platform that sources said that Russian President Putin may make a major statement on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in the next few days.

Disclaimer: As a blockchain information platform, Golden Finance publishes articles for information reference only and is not intended as actual investment advice. Please establish a correct investment concept and be sure to increase risk awareness.