Musk spends $132 million on election, Buffett doesn't endorse candidate

Golden Weekly is a weekly blockchain industry summary column launched by Golden Finance, covering key news of the week, mining information, project dynamics, technological progress and other industry dynamics. This article is the news weekly, taking you to a glance at the major events of the blockchain industry this week.

Headlines

▌Musk spends at least $132 million on Trump and his Republican allies

Federal filings show that Elon Musk provided another $56 million to Donald Trump and other Republicans in the final weeks of the 2024 election, bringing the amount spent by the world's richest man to promote his allies to the White House and Congress to at least $132 million. (Jinshi)

▌Ripple founder has donated more than $11.8 million to Harris' campaign

The latest election data shows that with two weeks to go before the US election, Ripple co-founder and chairman Chris Larsen donated nearly $9.9 million to Future Forward in September, in addition to more than $800,000 to Harris Victory Fund. Including Larsen's donation of $1 million worth of XRP tokens in August, he has donated more than $11.8 million to PACs supporting Harris' campaign, making him one of the largest individual donors in this round of the crypto industry.

▌Buffett: Not endorsing any US political candidate

With only two weeks until American citizens go to the polls to elect the next president, Warren Buffett said he will not support any political candidate. The 94-year-old billionaire issued a statement on his Berkshire Hathaway website, hoping to put an end to online rumors that Buffett supports political candidates and investment products. "Given the increased use of social media, fraudulent claims that Mr. Buffett endorses investment products and endorses political candidates have emerged," the statement read. "Buffett does not currently or prospectively endorse investment products or endorse or support political candidates." Buffett has supported Democratic candidates in the past, and he endorsed Hillary Clinton against Trump in the 2016 election.

▌Mark Cuban: Harris refused to meet privately with Elon Musk

American billionaire businessman Mark Cuban said he tried to arrange a private meeting between Elon Musk and US Vice President Harris, but Harris' team refused. Cuban said the meeting fell through because "they didn't think Musk could keep the conversation private." "What he said about Harris was so outrageous, I thought it would be good for them to talk," Cuban said of Musk. Cuban said he would still try to arrange a conversation between Harris and Musk if Harris won the election because he is one of the "best entrepreneurs." Cuban added that the move was "not political, but common sense."

▌Poll: Trump and Harris tied

CNN's final poll showed that former US President Trump and US Vice President Harris had a tie in approval ratings, both at 47%.

Policy

▌The British Crown Prosecution Service informed the Chinese victims of the 60,000 Bitcoin Qian Zhimin case: inter-state contact will only be made after progress is made in accordance with the provisions of the "Recovery of Proceeds of Crime Act 2002"

Qian Zhimin (transliteration, alias Zhang Yadi), the main culprit in the UK's 60,000 Bitcoin money laundering case and Tianjin Lantian Ge Rui's 43 billion yuan illegal fundraising case, has pleaded not guilty to all money laundering charges during the trial at Southwark Criminal Court in London. An investor revealed that they also sent representatives on the day of the trial and commissioned a cross-border asset dispute lawyer team to listen to the trial. The entrusted lawyer has helped the creditors submit a civil recovery application to the British High Court. In this regard, the British Crown Prosecution Service issued an announcement on October 22 to inform Chinese victims that the agency had initiated civil recovery procedures for the assets frozen by the British side from Qian Zhimin and others at the beginning of this year. After the procedure has progressed as required by Section 281 of the Proceeds of Crime Recovery Act 2002, inter-state contacts will be made. The Crown Prosecution Service filed a civil recovery procedure with the High Court earlier this year. If no other individuals or entities claim rights to the criminal assets, half will belong to the British police and the other half will be assigned to the British Home Office, with the purpose of facilitating the handling of the proceeds of crime and preventing further crimes.

▌The Pennsylvania House of Representatives passed a bipartisan bill to provide regulatory clarity for digital assets

According to Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett's post on the X platform, the Pennsylvania House of Representatives passed a bipartisan bill to provide regulatory clarity for digital assets. This move was made against the backdrop of increasing uncertainty in cryptocurrency regulation at the federal level. The bill passed with a 176-26 majority, including 76 Democrats and all 100 Republicans in support.

▌Netherlands Seeks Opinion on Crypto Tax Monitoring Law to Align with EU

The Dutch government has sought public opinion on a proposed law that would require crypto service providers, such as exchanges, to collect and share user data with local tax authorities to comply with EU regulations. “The purpose of the bill is to increase transparency in cryptocurrency ownership to prevent tax avoidance and evasion,” the Dutch Ministry of Finance said in an Oct. 24 press release. Under the new bill, the tax agency will share data collected by service providers on residents of other EU countries with their counterparts in those countries, a requirement of the EU-wide crypto tax reporting rules, or DAC8, adopted last year.

▌The U.S. Treasury Department is considering sanctions on Tether

The U.S. Treasury Department has considered sanctions on Tether, the issuer of the stablecoin USDT. According to people familiar with the matter, the federal government is investigating whether the cryptocurrency company Tether may have violated sanctions and anti-money laundering regulations. The criminal investigation is being led by prosecutors from the U.S. Attorney's Office in Manhattan, focusing on whether USDT is used by third parties to finance illegal activities such as drug trafficking, terrorism and hacking, or to launder related proceeds. At the same time, the U.S. Treasury Department is considering sanctions on Tether because USDT is widely used by individuals and groups sanctioned by the United States, including the terrorist organization Hamas and Russian arms dealers. Sanctioning Tether will prohibit Americans from doing business with sanctioned entities.

▌Russia's new crypto regulations will be implemented on November 1, strengthening mining and trading supervision

Russia will implement a new law on November 1 to further strengthen its supervision of cryptocurrencies. The law allows the government to restrict cryptocurrency mining based on regional demand and gives multiple federal agencies the authority to monitor transactions to combat money laundering and terrorist financing. In addition, the management of miner registration will be transferred to the Federal Tax Service, and companies and individual merchants must follow the new registration requirements, while individual miners can continue to mine without registration while complying with electricity restrictions. Russia is advancing crypto regulation and developing a state-backed digital ruble. The country has legalized crypto mining and allowed the use of cryptocurrencies in international trade, aiming to bypass sanctions and reduce reliance on US dollar foreign exchange.

Blockchain Applications

▌Celestia announces Ginger upgrade

Celestia, a modular blockchain, announced the launch of Ginger upgrade. Officials said that the upgrade will double the data availability throughput by halving the block time. The upgrade includes increasing the block size to 8 MB, introducing a verified signer blob type, versioning Gas schedulers and timeouts, transaction size limits, and PFB block limits. Ginger will be activated at Arabica height 2348907 (expected November 5, 2024), and is expected to land on the Mocha test network in November, and release the main network test version in December.

▌ETHGlobal releases list of San Francisco 2024 finalists

ETHGlobal has selected 10 projects from 223 projects and shortlisted them for the latest San Francisco 2024 finalists, including: PumpRoyale: Allows users to participate in USDC global fitness challenges, complete activities, and win rewards from the loser pool, combining fitness with potential income. VVLDrizzy: Allows creators to produce, watermark, and license viral videos while earning income. Media organizations can easily license verified content. IP Infinity: Turns NFTs into game objects with statistics and integrates them into procedurally generated worlds using Unreal Engine and AI-driven classification. OmiSwap: Uses AI wearable devices to implement voice-activated blockchain transactions, supports cross-chain transfers and gas-free USDC sending, and enables seamless encrypted interactions. HelloACAI: Implementing collaborative AI on the chain, using smart contracts to constrain specialized agents to work together to achieve efficient task execution and interaction. DAOsaster: A decentralized disaster response system that uses AI agents, drones, and blockchain for autonomous detection and coordination without relying on traditional infrastructure. Chain Waves: Allows users to watermark and encrypt audio files on the blockchain, ensuring proof of ownership, royalty tracking, and automatic dispute resolution for creators. BuildBlocks: Created drag-and-drop smart contract components that allow anyone to develop, compile, and deploy audited contracts on Rootstock, making Web3 development simple and secure. UniV4Backtester: Institutional-grade UniV4 backtesting tool that faithfully reproduces UniV3 events (Swap, Mint, Burn) to see how hypothetical positions perform within a time window. Betsy: Web3 betting platform on Skale, with XMTP messaging, AI-determined outcomes, and secure USDC processing via smart contracts.

▌Mu Changchun, Director of the Digital Currency Research Institute of the People's Bank of China: Systematically Improving Currency Bridge Technology from Three Aspects

Mu Changchun, Director of the Digital Currency Research Institute of the People's Bank of China, said at the Sibos 2024 Annual Meeting "Multilateral Central Bank Digital Currency Bridge: Central Bank Digital Currency Connecting Global Economies" seminar held on October 23 that the Digital Currency Research Institute will systematically improve the currency bridge technology in three aspects: First, the privacy protection mechanism. In the future, privacy protection technology based on zero-knowledge proof will be developed and planned to be launched in 2025. The design of zero-knowledge proof can prove the compliance and adequacy of funds of both parties to the transaction without disclosing details such as account balances and transaction timestamps. Second, the development and operation and maintenance system of the system. The currency bridge system is deployed in a decentralized manner, and each party operates and maintains independently. Third, the openness and transparency of the currency bridge platform. In order to strengthen trust among participants, the source code of the currency bridge is currently fully transparent to all participating central banks. Next, the Digital Currency Research Institute plans to use the development and operation system to promote joint development, code delivery, code review and continuous integration, continuous delivery and continuous deployment. At the same time, the Digital Currency Research Institute will work with the Bank for International Settlements to hire service providers for third-party code review and open source assessment preparation to achieve full open source.

▌Kraken plans to launch its native blockchain network next year

Cryptocurrency trading platform Kraken plans to launch its native blockchain network next year.

▌Arbitrum developer Offchain Labs launches "Quick Withdrawal" feature, shortening the withdrawal period from 7 days to 15 minutes

Arbitrum original developer Offchain Labs announced the launch of a new "Quick Withdrawal" feature, allowing selected Orbit chains and RaaS providers to achieve withdrawal termination within 15 minutes, while the usual waiting time is up to 7 days. The team said: "After the implementation of fast withdrawals, the withdrawal time has been shortened by more than 90%, and the withdrawal process is extremely similar to withdrawing money from a bank account. Although not exactly the same, it is a substantial improvement over traditional blockchain standards, making it closer to the traditional TradFi fund transfer experience."

Cryptocurrency

▌Russia attempts to effectively bypass Western sanctions by using Bitcoin for transactions within the BRICS

On October 23, as the BRICS summit opened in Kazan, Russia, the issue of cryptocurrency was put on the agenda. Russian lawmakers are promoting the idea that Russian miners can sell their tokens to international buyers, and domestic buyers can use BitCity and other cryptocurrencies to pay for imported goods, effectively bypassing Western sanctions. Richard Wolf, an American economist and professor emeritus at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, commented on this situation and said that the BRICS alliance is surpassing the United States, which has already peaked. The United States is on the decline and trying to maintain its international dominance.

▌Bitwise CEO: Banks will soon become major allies in the cryptocurrency field

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley predicts that banks will soon become major allies in the cryptocurrency field, unlocking a $30 trillion market by making crypto assets more accessible to mainstream investors. Meanwhile, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan is optimistic about Bitcoin's gains, noting that recent ETF inflows and potential regulatory clarity could trigger a rapid price surge.

▌JPMorgan: Tokenized Treasury Bonds Will Challenge Stablecoins But Will Not Completely Replace Stablecoins

JPMorgan analysts said the tokenized Treasury market is growing, and tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds are gaining favor as a yield substitute for stablecoins and may challenge the dominance of stablecoins. However, analysts point out that regulatory restrictions and liquidity issues suggest that tokenized treasuries may only partially replace stablecoins. Analysts say that large stablecoin issuers such as Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC) do not share reserve revenue with users, a practice that not only reduces their revenue but also classifies stablecoins as securities. Analysts point out that this classification will subject them to strict regulatory supervision, which may limit their use as collateral assets in the cryptocurrency market.

▌Japan remains cautious about cryptocurrency ETFs

The approval of spot cryptocurrency ETFs in the United States, Hong Kong, China, and other markets highlights the conservative and very different attitude taken by Japanese regulators. At the policy level, Japan is still hesitant to relax restrictions, remove tax and regulatory barriers, and promote the widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies. Tax and regulatory restrictions remain the main obstacles. Spot cryptocurrency ETFs will also enjoy tax benefits such as loss carryforward. But according to Keisuke Kimura, vice president of the Japan Crypto Asset Business Association and former financial advisor to SMBC Nikko Securities, a lot of changes are needed for regulators to take action and introduce these potential tax benefits.

▌Alliance releases 2024 cryptocurrency startup trend report: Ethereum remains the main ecosystem for building blockchain

Alliance releases 2024 cryptocurrency startup trend report, which provides trends observed from the application data and adds insights into their possible impact on the broader startup ecosystem. The key points are as follows: 1. Ethereum remains the main ecosystem for startups to build blockchains, and Solana and Bitcoin have grown rapidly in the past 1.5 years. 2. Product verticals with rising popularity: infrastructure, DeFi, payment, AI x Crypto, and product verticals with declining popularity: DAO and NFT. 3. Europe (31%), the United States and Canada (29%), and Asia (27%) are the three main regions where startups are built today. The percentage of startups from the United States and Canada has been steadily declining over the past few cohorts, while Asia and Africa have been growing. 4. Buzzwords that have risen in popularity over the past 12 months include fully homomorphic encryption (FHE), chain abstraction, memes, SocialFi, prediction markets, liquidity staking, re-staking, RWA, stablecoins, L1, L2, and L3. 5. Currently 30% of founders applying to join our accelerator have experience in large technology companies (S&P500), and 12% of founders attend top schools (QS top 100 universities). 6. 39% of startups have sole founders, and in companies with multiple founders, their equity distribution is equal half of the time. 72% of startups work completely remotely.

Important Economic Dynamics

▌Fed's Schmid: Personally prefer to avoid a sharp rate cut

Fed's Schmid said that interest rates may be significantly higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic; called for a cautious, gradual and prudent rate cut strategy; personally prefer to avoid a sharp rate cut; "reasonably believe" that inflation will fall to 2%; see the labor market is normalizing, not deteriorating.

▌Fed's Daly: Haven't seen any reason to stop cutting rates

Fed's Daly said that the Fed will continue to adjust its policies to adapt to the economic situation; it is expected that interest rates will continue to be cut in the future; it has not seen any reason to stop cutting interest rates; monetary policy is definitely still tight; do not want to see the labor market deteriorate further; the Fed's recent rate cut was passed by only a slight advantage, and I strongly supported a 50 basis point rate cut at the time.

▌QCP Capital: US election and interest rate cut expectations are good for the crypto market, pay attention to non-farm data next Friday

Singapore crypto investment institution QCP Capital issued a statement saying that there are only two weeks left before the US election, which is currently attracting much attention. In the prediction market, Trump has begun to expand his lead over Harris, and current polls in key swing states also tend to favor the Republican Party. The market is currently pricing in Trump's possible election as president. Talk of tariffs and tax cuts has led to a stronger dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields. Given Trump's more cryptocurrency-friendly stance, it is not surprising that Bitcoin is trading higher. The S&P 500 continues to hit record highs, and the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield has once again broken through 4%. Driven by unprecedented open interest on exchanges, Bitcoin has moved towards $69,000. The total open interest of exchange futures currently reaches $40.5 billion. The market currently expects 1.5 interest rate cuts in 2024. A stronger-than-expected labor market and the increased likelihood of a Trump presidency have rekindled hopes that U.S. economic growth will remain strong. As uncertainty in the labor market persists, all eyes are on the non-farm payrolls report (NFP) to be released next Friday. As the last NFP report before the next Fed meeting, it will play a key role in shaping market expectations for the Fed's next interest rate move. Bitcoin and Ethereum remain well supported and have upside potential ahead of the employment data release and the election.

▌Financial Times: If Harris wins, the Fed may cut interest rates quickly next year

The Financial Times team recently updated its forecast for the Fed's interest rate outlook, predicting that if Harris wins, the Fed may cut interest rates quickly next year. According to analysis, following the 50 basis point rate cut in September, the Fed may cut interest rates twice more by 25 basis points in 2024. The Fed will cut interest rates by a total of 100 basis points by the end of this year, bringing the fund rate to 4.25-4.5%. This is consistent with the Fed's September economic forecast summary. If Harris wins the US presidential election, the Fed will cut interest rates three more times in the first half of 2025, each time by 25 basis points, to reduce the policy rate to 3.5-3.75%. (Jinshi)

▌The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25BP in November is 96.3%

According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 96.3%, and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged is 3.7%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by December is 1%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 28.5%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 70.5%.

Disclaimer: As a blockchain information platform, Golden Finance publishes articles for information reference only and is not intended as actual investment advice. Please establish a correct investment philosophy and be sure to raise your risk awareness.