Polymarket: Only 12.7% of Crypto Wallets Show Profits in Decentralized Prediction Markets

Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market that enables users to wager on world events using cryptocurrency, has proven to be an uphill battle for most of its participants. Recent onchain data from analytics tool Layerhub revealed that only 12.7% of crypto wallets on the platform have turned a profit, highlighting the risky and often costly nature of betting on real-world events via blockchain technology.

Profit Margins on Polymarket: A Rare Outcome
According to the data, a mere 12.7% of Polymarket users—just 21,730 out of 171,113 total wallets—have made any profits at all. Even among the wallets reporting gains, the majority saw modest returns, with most profits falling below $100. Only 2,138 wallets managed to break the $1,000 profit threshold. Additionally, approximately 7,400 wallets saw earnings in the $100 to $1,000 range.
This leaves a staggering 87.3% of wallets—149,383 in total—reporting no profits from their bets. These findings suggest that, while the allure of prediction markets might appeal to traders looking for quick gains, the reality for most participants is much bleaker.

High-Risk Bets and Multiple Wallets: The Realities of Polymarket
Despite the low profitability, Polymarket remains a hub of activity, having facilitated about 10.8 million trades to date. Recent world events, such as geopolitical conflicts and the anticipation surrounding the 2024 United States presidential election, have sparked a surge in trading. Between October 6 and 8 alone, Polymarket recorded more than 300,000 trades daily.
It’s important to note that not all wallets represent individual users. Many traders operate multiple wallets to place high-risk, high-reward bets, hoping to increase their chances of landing profitable outcomes. As a result, nearly 25,000 wallets have participated in over 50 trades, while around 32,000 wallets conducted between 20 and 50 trades. However, a large portion of participants—almost 58,000 wallets—have only made between one and five trades, suggesting that many users are casual bettors or new to the platform.

Polymarket Bets: Expensive for Most, Profitable for Few
Polymarket’s betting model relies on crypto users speculating on the outcomes of real-world events, ranging from politics to entertainment. While the platform offers the potential for lucrative returns, the majority of participants appear to be left with losses. High volatility in market sentiment and unpredictable outcomes make consistent profits difficult to achieve.
For many traders, Polymarket has become an expensive venture. The data shows that only a small percentage of wallets see substantial profits, with most participants struggling to recoup their initial investments. This disparity between winners and losers highlights the inherent risks of decentralized prediction markets, where the odds are often stacked against the average user.

Crypto Gambling Interest Remains High Despite Challenges
Despite the challenges of turning a profit on Polymarket, interest in crypto-based gambling and betting platforms remains strong. As of October 9, open interest on Polymarket—the total value of futures contracts held by market participants at the end of the trading day—stood at an impressive $161.1 million.
One of the reasons for Polymarket’s continued popularity is its growing reputation for accurately predicting real-world outcomes. Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently praised the platform, stating that it could potentially predict the results of the 2024 U.S. presidential election more accurately than traditional polling methods. Musk made this comment on October 6, when former President Donald Trump was leading Vice President Kamala Harris by a slim margin in the platform’s betting markets.

The Future of Decentralized Prediction Markets
Polymarket’s decentralized nature and reliance on cryptocurrency have positioned it as a cutting-edge tool for speculating on world events. However, the platform’s data underscores the inherent difficulties in turning a profit. While a small fraction of users have managed to capitalize on their bets, the vast majority are left with minimal gains or losses.
As crypto gambling and prediction markets continue to evolve, platforms like Polymarket will need to balance their appeal as innovative betting tools with the realities of profitability. For now, most participants may find that the odds of making a profit are as unpredictable as the events they are betting on.