Prediction: Harris has a higher chance of winning. Taylor Swift voted for Harris

Golden Weekly is a weekly blockchain industry summary column launched by Golden Finance, covering the week's key news, mining information, project dynamics, technological progress and other industry dynamics. This article is one of the news weekly, taking you to a glance at the major events in the blockchain industry this week.

Headlines

▌Harris's chance of winning the US presidential election on Polymarket has exceeded Trump

Polymarket predicts that Trump has a 49% chance of winning the 2024 US presidential election, and Kamala Harris has a 50% chance of winning the 2024 US presidential election.

▌Taylor Swift: Will vote for Harris and Waltz in the 2024 presidential election

The first televised debate between Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, and Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, took place in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania at 9 p.m. local time on the 10th. Taylor Swift, the American pop music queen with a large fan base, watched the debate live and then stated on social media that she would vote for Harris and her running mate Waltz. She said in the post: "Recently, I learned that the "I" created by Al falsely supported Trump's presidential campaign and was posted on his website. This really made me fear Al and made me realize the dangers of spreading misinformation. This made me conclude that as a voter, I need to be very transparent about my actual plans for this election. The easiest way to fight misinformation is to speak with facts. I will vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Waltz in the 2024 presidential election." Taylor signed her Instagram at the end as "Childless Cat Lady" and accompanied it with a photo of herself holding a cat.

▌The crypto industry has donated $190 million to the 2024 US election

FOX reporter Eleanor Terrett posted on social media that according to Breadcrumbs.app data, the crypto industry has donated $190 million to the 2024 US election so far. In contrast, cryptocurrency donations accounted for only $15 million in the 2020 election.

▌Harris releases list of proposed policy positions, without mentioning crypto-related issues

The campaign website of Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris released a list of proposed policy positions for her future presidential administration, which did not mention crypto-related topics. On the new issue page of her campaign website, some text mentioned supporting "American innovation and workers." Among them, the Democratic candidate promised to support the development of the artificial intelligence industry and emphasized the importance of cultivating "other cutting-edge industries of the future."

▌Standard Chartered Bank: Bitcoin may hit a new high by the end of the year, with limited impact from the results of the US election

In his latest analysis, Geoff Kendrick, head of foreign exchange and digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, said that regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election, Bitcoin prices are expected to hit a new all-time high by the end of 2024. Kendrick predicts that if Trump wins, Bitcoin could reach $125,000; if Harris is elected, the price could reach $75,000.   Kendrick stressed that the US election has less impact on Bitcoin's future trend than market expectations. He pointed out that positive changes in the regulatory environment are one of the key factors driving Bitcoin's price growth. Regardless of who enters the White House, the process of relaxing digital asset regulations (especially the revocation of SAB 121) is expected to continue in 2025. In addition, Kendrick also mentioned that the development of the U.S. Treasury market has provided a positive for the long-term trend of Bitcoin. He expects a seasonal rebound in the inflow of funds to the spot Bitcoin ETF in October.

Policy

▌Foreign media: Montenegro Supreme Court expects to make a ruling on Do Kwon this month

According to the acting president of the Montenegrin Supreme Court, the Supreme Court is expected to rule on whether the Do Kwon extradition ruling is illegal by the end of this month. Vesna Vučković said that the Supreme Court will decide on the "legality protection request" filed by the Supreme State Prosecutor. The prosecutor believes that there are multiple violations in the final judgments of the High Court and the Court of Appeal on the extradition of cryptocurrency founder Do Kwon.

▌Coinbase and a16z jointly launched the NFT creator legal defense fund

Coinbase, together with Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) and NFT platform OpenSea, launched a $6 million NFT creator legal defense fund on September 13. The fund was initiated by the "Stand With Crypto" initiative to help NFT creators deal with legal challenges from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The initiative was launched by Coinbase in 2023 to support and protect the crypto industry from excessive regulation. The fund has been supported by several well-known law firms, including Fenwick & West LLP, Goodwin Procter LLP, and Latham & Watkins LLP. a16z has contributed $1 million as part of the fund, and other participants such as OpenSea provided the remaining $5 million. As the SEC issues a Wells notice to OpenSea, regulatory pressure on NFT projects has intensified, and the fund will provide legal assistance to creators to help them continue to innovate in the field of blockchain technology.

▌The SEC has fined the cryptocurrency industry $7.4 billion since 2013

According to a study released by Social Capital Markets, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has fined the cryptocurrency industry $7.4 billion since 2013. The report said that with Terraform Labs agreeing to pay $4.47 billion earlier this year, the total fines in 2024 have exceeded previous years to $4.7 billion. However, the report also said that the total number of tickets issued fell to 11 from 30 last year, when the SEC fined the crypto industry a total of $150 million. "The overall increase in fines suggests a strategic shift toward fewer, higher-impact cases," Social Capital Markets said in its report. "This change underscores the need for cryptocurrency companies to prioritize regulatory compliance as the financial risks associated with violations have escalated."

▌SEC expands lawsuit against Binance by listing AXS, FIL, ATOM as securities

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has expanded its lawsuit against Binance to expand the scope of its claims. The SEC's updated legal filing now lists more tokens as securities, including Axie Infinity, Filecoin, and Cosmos. In the latest update to the SEC's lawsuit against Binance, the regulator accused Binance and its U.S. affiliate BAM Trading of facilitating transactions in tokens that are now considered unregistered securities. The SEC accused the Binance platform of actively promoting these newly identified security tokens to customers and emphasizing their potential investment returns.

▌U.S. SEC: The term "crypto-asset securities" does not mean that the token itself is a security

The U.S. SEC stated in a footnote in the revised complaint filed against Binance that when the term "crypto-asset securities" is mentioned, it does not refer to the crypto assets themselves, but to a set of contracts, expectations and understandings when selling these assets. In fact, the SEC only uses this term as a "shorthand." The SEC also claimed that it has always held this position and mentioned that there were similar supplementary explanations in the case against Telegram. However, in order to clarify the issue, the agency stated that it will avoid using this abbreviation in future cases against Binance and "regrets any confusion caused."

Blockchain Applications

▌Lido Alliance Launches Drop, a Liquidity Staking Protocol Built on Neutron

Lido Alliance announced the launch of Drop, a liquidity staking protocol designed specifically for Interchain assets. Drop is built on Neutron, allowing users to stake their Interchain assets and receive dAssets in return. It currently supports ATOM liquidity staking and plans to add support for TIA soon. In Drop's token economic model, 10% (100 million) of the liquidity staking asset rewards will be allocated to a dedicated pool. After the launch of the DROP token, the DROP DAO will decide how to use it, which may include allocating rewards to DROP stakers or creating an insurance fund.

▌Swift launches global infrastructure to simplify tokenized asset transfers

Swift announced on September 11 the launch of a global infrastructure initiative to simplify the transfer of tokenized assets and allow members to trade traditional and emerging assets, including cryptocurrencies, using the Swift network. The program will test multi-ledger delivery-to-delivery (DvP) and payment-to-payment (PvP) transactions, which are expected to enable real-time payments and exchanges of tokenized assets. Swift's move will focus on global transactions of real-world assets (RWA), a market expected to reach $30 trillion by 2034. Swift pointed out that the global tokenized asset industry faces interoperability issues, resulting in different RWA efforts becoming digital islands, mainly due to the lack of a globally unified form of digital currency. Swift Chief Innovation Officer Tom Zschach said that digital currencies and tokens have great potential, but different methods need to be able to interconnect to unlock this potential. Swift plans to use fiat currency in the early stage, and will expand to central bank digital currency (CBDC), tokenized commercial bank currency and stablecoins in the future. Swift also said that it has achieved success in the value transfer test of tokenized assets, aiming to provide a single payment infrastructure for tokenized assets and solve the problem of integrating different digital assets with banking networks. Coinbase launches cbBTC, which will run on the Ethereum mainnet and Base Coinbase officially launched its wrapped Bitcoin version Coinbase Wrapped BTC (cbBTC). The token runs on the Ethereum network and is backed by 1:1 Bitcoin. It is designed to allow traders to use Bitcoin on Ethereum, mainly for DeFi. Coinbase said that cbBTC will run on the Ethereum mainnet and its own L2 network Base, connecting deep off-chain Bitcoin liquidity with low-cost, high-speed financial tracks on Base and Ethereum for the first time.

▌ZKsync officially launches on-chain governance system

ZKsync officially launches on-chain governance system, which is designed around the principles of separation of powers and checks and balances. By design, no person or entity has the power to change the ZKsync protocol. All changes to the protocol must be approved by three independent bodies that exercise independent judgment and control over their decisions: the token holder community, the security committee, and value-aligned regulators who ensure that proposals are implemented. The Token Holder Assembly allows token holders and representatives to submit and vote on protocol upgrades directly on the chain; the Security Committee is composed of technical experts who are responsible for reviewing and approving protocol upgrades and have the power to freeze the protocol in an emergency; Guardians ensure that governance proposals are in line with the values ​​of the ZK Creed. The governance system supports three types of proposals: ZKsync Improvement Proposals (ZIPs), Token Program Proposals (TPPs), and Governance Advisory Proposals (GAPs).

▌UTXO Stack transforms into Lightning Network staking layer and plans to launch token incentive mechanism

UTXO Stack announced its official transformation into Lightning Network staking layer, providing better liquidity and better revenue model for Lightning Network through decentralized staking protocol. At the same time, UTXO Stack plans to launch a token incentive mechanism to incentivize staking CKB and BTC to enhance the liquidity of state channels. This transformation will promote Lightning Network to the public and build a more scalable Bitcoin ecosystem by providing liquidity incentives.

Cryptocurrency

▌FBI: US cryptocurrency-related security losses exceeded US$5.6 billion in 2023

The report released by the FBI shows that US cryptocurrency-related security complaints reached a record high in 2023, with losses exceeding US$5.6 billion. The FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) received more than 69,000 complaints of financial fraud involving cryptocurrencies such as BTC, ETH or USDT. Of these, 71% of the losses were due to "cryptocurrency exploitation", and 10% were related to technical support scams, government impersonation scams and call center fraud. Investment fraud was the most common cryptocurrency-related problem last year, with total losses surging 45% from 2022. California, Florida, Texas, New York and Washington were the states most affected, with California losing more than $1.1 billion.

▌Visa Releases First Cryptocurrency Research Report

Payment giant Visa has released a cryptocurrency study on the use of stablecoins. The study shows that the use of stablecoins has gradually surpassed speculative transactions and is increasingly used in practical application scenarios. The study, titled "Stablecoins: The Story of Emerging Markets," tracks the actual use of stablecoins for the first time worldwide, surveying 2,500 users in Brazil, Nigeria, Turkey, Indonesia and India.

▌FINRA survey: 55% of Generation Z in the United States prefer to invest in cryptocurrencies

According to a survey by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), 55% of Generation Z in the United States prefer to invest in cryptocurrencies. Generation Z prefers finances on the chain rather than online. They believe that digital banking platforms are clumsy and opaque. Generation Z prefers to manage their finances on the chain through decentralized financial applications and digital dollar stablecoins. It is reported that Generation Z refers to the generation born between 1997 and 2012 and now aged 12-27.

▌Analysis: The number of new Bitcoin addresses approaches a critical level at 330,000, and the bull market outlook attracts market attention

According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin (BTC) has performed steadily in September, with prices rising nearly 13% in the past week. Crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci pointed out that the increase in new Bitcoin addresses is an important indicator of price trends. The number of new addresses has recently reached 330,000, approaching the critical 350,000 threshold. Kesmeci explained that when the number of new addresses exceeds 350,000, it indicates that the market bulls are strengthening and prices have the potential to rise; if it is below this threshold, it may enter an adjustment or bear market. Kesmeci also pointed out that if the number of new addresses reaches or exceeds 350,000 in the future, especially after the Federal Reserve meeting next week, Bitcoin investors may usher in "good times". However, the rise of BTC spot ETFs may affect network growth because ETFs may concentrate Bitcoin holdings and reduce the generation of new addresses. The current Bitcoin trading price is $60,395, up 4.31% in the past 24 hours, but the trading volume has fallen by 9.35%.

▌Ark Invest: US spot Bitcoin ETF investors may be in a loss as of the end of August

Ark Invest's August Bitcoin Monthly Report shows that as of the end of August, the basis cost of US spot Bitcoin ETF investors is higher than the spot price of Bitcoin, which means that ordinary ETF investors may be in a loss.

Important Economic Dynamics

▌Institution: The monthly rate of core inflation in the United States has risen, ruling out the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve

According to Informa Global Markets, the overall US CPI slowed to 2.5% year-on-year in August, in line with expectations, the lowest level since February 2021. Core inflation remained at 3.2% on an annual basis, which was also in line with expectations. The market noted that it was the core inflation rate that was higher than expected, recording 0.3% on a monthly basis, which prompted USD/JPY to rise from 141.80 to 142.35. The data supports a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week and should rule out a larger 50 basis point cut.

▌ClearBridge: The market is ready for a 250 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025

Josh Jamner, investment strategist at asset management firm ClearBridge Investments, said today's CPI report will disappoint the short-term bond market because the market is ready for a 250 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025. He said today's less favorable news will not prevent the Federal Reserve from starting to normalize interest rate policy next week, but it may cause it to reframe the debate. Further signs suggest that inflation may be more stubborn than previously thought, which could lead to a slower and smaller rate cut cycle.

▌IMF: Fed "on the verge" of launching an easing cycle

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that judging from the exchange of information, the Fed is "on the verge" of launching an easing cycle; US economic growth is expected to slow and the upside risks to inflation have weakened.

▌Goldman Sachs: Still expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week

Goldman Sachs analysts recently said that they still expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, and will cut interest rates at each of the remaining meetings this year (November and December). In contrast, speculation about a larger Fed rate cut has resurfaced. Former New York Federal Reserve Bank President Dudley said on Thursday that there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its meeting next week. Investors reacted strongly to news articles in the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal on Friday, which emphasized that the first rate cut may be a difficult decision for Fed officials, which has triggered market speculation about a larger rate cut.

▌The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has increased to 50%

According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, as of press time, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points and 50 basis points in September is 50%. A day ago, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September was only 28%.

Disclaimer: As a blockchain information platform, Golden Finance publishes articles for information reference only and is not intended as actual investment advice. Please establish the correct investment concept and be sure to enhance risk awareness.