Seasonal fluctuations are coming, but signs of market rebound are still unclear

In the past week, BTC showed a volatile downward trend, breaking through multiple key support levels of 63,000$, 60,000$, and 58,000$, and bottoming out at 57,1128$, with the largest weekly decline of 12%. After bottoming out, BTC entered a compensatory rebound. As of the time of this article, BTC fluctuated at 59,000$. BTC's market dominance has increased, and the crypto market has basically followed the fluctuations of BTC, with an overall decline. ETH bottomed out at $2,392 last week, with a maximum retracement of 6.6% during the week. As of the time of content release, ETH is trying to stabilize at the $2,500 support level. (The above data is from Binance spot, 15:00 on September 3)

Market environment

The August employment report is about to be released. If the labor force data is weaker than expected, the Federal Reserve may seek a larger interest rate cut

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is basically a foregone conclusion. The latest data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 67%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 33% (CME). On September 6, the U.S. employment report for August will be released. The market believes that the data will affect the extent of the interest rate cut. If the labor data is weaker than expected, the Federal Reserve may seek a larger interest rate cut, which will be an acknowledgement of economic weakness.

U.S. technology stocks performed worse than expected, and investors tend to reduce risk exposure

On August 28, after the release of Nvidia's financial report, the buying and selling markets had mixed acceptance. Although many investment banks raised Nvidia's target price, the buyer market did not buy it. On August 29, under the premise that most technology stocks rose, Nvidia fell 6.38%, and its market value evaporated by 196.7 billion in a single day. As of the close of Friday, most of the star technology stocks closed higher, with Nvidia up 1.5% (data from Jinshi).

Although Nvidia's stock price has rebounded, doubts about the high valuation of technology stocks already exist in the market and have been transmitted to the crypto market (from the end of 2022 to the second quarter of 2024, there is a strong correlation between Nvidia and BTC prices). This sentiment has suppressed the market's risk appetite, causing investors to be more inclined to reduce risk exposure in the current environment.

BTC ETF and ETH ETF both experienced net outflows in August

Sosovalue data shows that in August, BTC ETF had a cumulative net outflow of $94 million, and ETH ETF had a net outflow of $477.25 million. Among them, on August 23, BTC ETF had a net inflow of more than $250 million, the best performance in August; on August 2, the net outflow was $237 million, the worst performance in August. The amount of BTC ETF funds declined after 3 months. Among them, GBTC under Grayscale had the highest outflow, with a cumulative outflow of nearly $20 billion this year. The market believes that the outflow of BTC ETF funds may be a combination of factors such as changes in Bitcoin price trends, changes in market expectations, and regulatory dynamics.

Recommended layout

Historical data shows that multiple markets have performed poorly in September. Not only does BTC have a negative return rate in September, but U.S. stocks also cannot escape the September curse. Since 1928, September has been the worst performing month for the S&P 500 index. Data from CME Group last year showed that the S&P 500 index fell in 55% of Septembers over the past century.

Amid the seasonal fluctuations in September, as well as the steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, the decline in yields and the depreciation of the U.S. dollar exchange rate, investors are advised to seek a stable way to lock in returns, pay close attention to large transactions and market capital flows on the basis of prudence, and allocate assets reasonably. This week, we continue to recommend the core satellite strategy, investing most of the funds in stable cost-protected products, while allocating a small part of the funds to high-yield structured products (for example, 70%-80% of the assets are selected for principal-protected products, and 20%-30% are selected for relatively high-risk and high-yield financial products). Through different product combinations, strategic investments can be used to achieve returns in high-volatility markets and regulate investment risks.

Shark Fin and Trend Win are mature cost-protected structured products that can meet the public's needs for stable principal-protected returns. Dual currency is an effective tool to deal with market uncertainty. Proper use can enable investors to lock in profits in a volatile market and reduce losses caused by market fluctuations.

As the world's leading one-stop crypto financial service platform, Matrixport provides users with diversified asset management products, including dual currency investment, snowball, shark fin, trend smart win and other structured products; quantitative strategy, passive strategy, subjective strategy and other strategic investment. The above products support multi-currency investment, and a wide range of investment cycles can be selected.