September Outlook: Will the Crypto Market Replicate Last Year’s Bull Market?

Author: Climber, Golden Finance

On September 4, the crypto market fell again. BTC dropped to around $55,600, and the altcoins were even more miserable, with the decline catching up with the level of last year's bear market. Regarding the market trend in the last four months of this year, various institutions and celebrities have different views on long and short positions, and short-term and long-term investment suggestions are also different.

However, in general, the key factors that are most likely to affect the crypto market in the future are: the Fed's interest rate cut, the general election, the SEC's regulatory strategy, the FTX debt repayment schedule, the trend of US stocks and technology stocks, the flow of funds for US Bitcoin ETFs, and the halving cycle. Especially under the expectation of interest rate cuts and halving, many investors and institutions have adopted an early layout method, but some analysts still say that they should pay attention to short-term risks, and BTC may fall back to the range of 400-500 million US dollars.

In this regard, Golden Finance has collected and sorted out the views of celebrities from representative institutions and recent positive and negative events, in order to have a clearer understanding of the future market trend of cryptocurrencies.

Bullish and Positive Events

Bullish:

ETC Group Research Director: Bitcoin's illiquid supply reached 74% of the total, a record high, indicating that the supply shock caused by the halving is actually intensifying, which will bring increasing impetus to Bitcoin and other crypto assets in the coming months.

Grayscale: If the dollar weakens and interest rates continue to fall, it will be good for Bitcoin. The main downside risk to crypto valuations is a further increase in unemployment and a possible recession, but US policymakers will start to release water and promote consumption when there are signs of a recession.

Rekt Capital analyst: Bitcoin's historical performance in October is usually very strong. Data shows that Bitcoin has only experienced declines in October of 2014 and 2018, both of which were in a bear market cycle. At present, the market is in the year of Bitcoin's halving cycle. Historically, Bitcoin has only seen a single-digit increase in October in 2018 (also a bear market year). Apart from this, October usually brings double-digit gains, with an average increase of 22%.

Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto: Bitcoin prices are expected to reach $110,000 in 2025. Bitcoin is forming a "cup and handle" pattern, a bullish chart pattern that suggests that prices may rise in the future. The BTC high will occur in the fourth quarter of 2024 and may reach $100,000 in the first quarter of 2025.

Bitfinex analyst: A 25 basis point rate cut could signal the start of a typical easing cycle, while a more aggressive 50 basis point rate cut could cause an immediate surge in Bitcoin prices, but a pullback could follow as recession fears mount.

QCP Capital: Bitcoin may have strong support at $54,000, and the options market still shows medium-term bullish signals. The report also mentioned that this week's unemployment benefit application data (September 5) and non-farm payrolls report (September 6) may not have a significant impact on cryptocurrency prices because the impact of recent macroeconomic data on cryptocurrencies has weakened.

Analyst: Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin's average hash rate has been growing steadily over the past year and has seen significant growth in 2024. Historically, the hash rate has generally moved in line with Bitcoin's price movements, reflecting miners' confidence and more optimistic market sentiment.

CryptoQuant analyst: The on-chain indicator Bitcoin Puell Multiple Index shows that Bitcoin is close to a "favorable" buying level. In addition, the low price of Bitcoin computing power may suggest that the price of BTC is close to the bottom.

Glassnode: The net realized profit/loss indicator of Bitcoin has stabilized in the second half of this year, indicating that as the market matures after the halving, a balance has been reached between profits and losses.

Real Vision Chief Crypto Analyst: Bitcoin may reach $150,000 by the end of 2024, and Bitcoin's price trend is expected to enter a "crazy season".

Positive events:

Russia allows the use of cryptocurrencies for international trade.

The US SEC no longer seeks to restart the disclosure rules for hedge fund transaction fees.

Zurich Cantonal Bank launches Bitcoin and crypto products.

Metaplanet has reached a cooperation with the crypto department of Japanese financial giant SBI and will continue to increase its holdings of Bitcoin. Metaplanet has acquired 360 Bitcoins ($207 million) so far, using its main reserve assets as collateral to enhance its ability to obtain equity and debt financing.

Data shows that the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a monthly net inflow of 975 BTC in August, and the number of addresses holding more than 100 Bitcoins reached 16,120, a 17-month high.

The Venezuelan president proposed to return to the cryptocurrency path and may re-adopt a cryptocurrency-friendly stance in the future.

Cryptocurrency losses fell to a record low of $15 million in August.

Starbucks accepts Bitcoin as a payment method in El Salvador.

Greeks.live Macro Researcher: Cryptocurrency has entered a correction trend, whale users have begun to arrange long positions, and the number of large call options has increased, with the expiration date mostly at the end of September and the end of October.

Bearish and Negative Events

Bearish:

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes: If interest rates rise again and market liquidity tightens, Bitcoin may face another correction.

Trader T: Institutional investment in Bitcoin and its derivatives was not active in August. The MSTR-BTC data showed a positive sentiment of +1.1x and a negative sentiment of -1.3x. MSTR-BTC sentiment refers to the market's views and expectations on the correlation between MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock and Bitcoin (BTC). Sentiment means that the market has shown a certain degree of inclination towards the correlation between MicroStrategy and Bitcoin.

Bitfinex Report: A 15-20% drop is possible when interest rates are cut this month, and the bottom of Bitcoin may be between $40,000 and $50,000.

Wolfe Research Analyst: Bitcoin may first pull back to below $50,000 before a potential rise in 2025. Bitcoin may return to the bottom of the range, the $50,000 low area, in the coming weeks. Unless there are major changes, we will continue to remain bearish on Bitcoin's short- to medium-term price.

10x Research: Potential short squeeze pushes Bitcoin prices higher in the near term, and may be at risk in September.

BTC Markets Analyst: The crypto market may fall due to a combination of factors such as the "September effect" due to portfolio rebalancing, tax-loss profits, and increased caution before the US election.

Crypto data provider Kaiko: The crypto market is currently facing a serious oversupply problem, which may continue to depress BTC prices. Other major holders may also increase selling pressure in the near future. For example, the US government holds more than $2 billion worth of Bitcoin, and other countries including the United Kingdom, China and Ukraine also have large Bitcoin reserves.

Citi: ETF fund flows may continue to disappoint before the market is transparent about the results of the US economic landing.

Analyst Ali: BTC has been struggling to break through $63,250 since June 22. This price level often becomes resistance because short-term holders are more inclined to sell when the price falls below the entry point.

CryptoQuant: From a price perspective, if the price of Bitcoin falls below $56,000, the risk of a larger correction will increase.

Negative events:

Farside Investors data shows that the US spot Bitcoin ETF suffered the largest outflow in nearly four months on September 3, and market sentiment was depressed. Investors from Wall Street banks and hedge funds still held Bitcoin ETFs in the second quarter, but overall capital flows were weak.

Matrixport: South Korea's cryptocurrency trading volume hit a new low this year last weekend.

Bitcoin miners' earnings in August hit a new low this year.

Victory Securities: Funding Rates indicate that the short force in the contract market is stronger.

IntoTheBlock data shows that Bitcoin faces continued selling pressure between $61,700 and $70,500. Since a large number of traders are losing money in this price range, every time the price of Bitcoin approaches this level, it will face continuous selling pressure, and many investors will seek to break even. This is why it is difficult for Bitcoin to set new highs. Only strong momentum can break through this trend and reach new highs.

Spot on chain data shows that Bitcoin's performance in September has only been rising in three of the past 10 years.

The Block Pro data shows that the adjusted total on-chain transaction volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum in August fell by 15.3% to US$377 billion, of which the adjusted on-chain transaction volume of Bitcoin fell by 12.1% and Ethereum fell by 20.2%.

Summary

In terms of the comparison of the long and short situations, bullish sentiment does not overwhelmingly cover the bearish view. The current market perception is that there is still a risk of decline before the interest rate cut, and several other major factors such as the election, the US economy, and regulation are still unclear, and the market trend may fluctuate violently at any time. However, institutions are generally optimistic about the long-term upward trend of the crypto market, and whales are also quietly making plans. In short, ordinary investors still need to be cautious in the current situation and pay attention to market changes at all times.