The clearest explanation of MAGA's China policy

Source: Chairman Rabbit

On September 26, 2024 (before the election), Vivek Ramaswamy was interviewed by Lex Fridman and expressed his views on US foreign policy. Vivek Ramaswamy was born in 1985 and is of Indian descent. His previous background was mainly in the business world. In this election, he participated in the Republican primary and attracted a lot of media attention when he made his debut. His characteristics are: he has a deep understanding of the essence of Trump/MAGAism, is well versed in its underlying logic, has good eloquence, and can express his ideas more clearly. Unlike JD Vance, JD Vance is more humble and down-to-earth, while Vivek Ramaswamy is more elitist. Since withdrawing from the primary, Vivek Ramaswamy quickly "joined" the Trump camp, quickly became the core team member, actively participated in the campaign, and made great contributions to Trump's victory in the election.           

It is important to emphasize:

1) This young man is now one of the core people around Trump;

2) He has deeply understood the "true teachings" of Trump's ideological and spiritual connotations;

3) There are very few "non-consensus" parts with other MAGA politicians or opinion leaders (such as Tucker Carlson), and their opinions are converging and focusing;

4) As a core member, he has an important influence on influencing and shaping Trump's agenda, direction, strategy, tactics, policy, and personnel selection in his second term.

Before this article was published, Trump had just announced that Musk and Vivek would jointly lead the "Department of Government" to be responsible for the streamlining of federal government agencies, which shows the importance of Vivek.  

In the interview on September 26, Vivek clearly explained the core views (or "spirit") of his foreign policy toward China. I think this is the clearest external statement by the Trump/MAGA core camp so far. The following is my summary of Vivek’s core views, which are basically equivalent to the core positions of the Trump/MAGA political elite. 1. Resolutely not to engage in a hot war between China and the United States and not to escalate to a world war: China and the United States must avoid direct conflict ("hot war") and must not allow local conflicts or contradictions to escalate into a world war. Avoiding the (Third) World War is the core appeal of MAGA. 2. The "Thucydides Trap" should and can be avoided: The so-called "Thucydides Trap" refers to the logic proposed by Westerners that there will be a war between the rise of emerging countries ("second place") and the existing hegemon ("first place") when power changes. Vivek said that the so-called Thucydides Trap can be completely avoided and should not be constrained by mainstream relationship theories: "I don't think we are necessarily a "declining" great power, nor do I think this will inevitably lead to a major conflict with China." 3. U.S. policy toward China (politics/diplomatic relations): 1) Adhere to the "One China Policy", and believe that the United States cannot and does not need to deviate from the policy it has followed for the past few decades. 2) "Strategic ambiguity": It believes that the "strategic ambiguity" of the past was wrong, and that "all world wars were caused by strategic ambiguity because the powerful countries did not know what the other side was going to do." Therefore, a "strategic clarity" approach should be adopted to clarify the red lines and bottom lines of both sides, and the granularity of both sides should be completely aligned. 3) Interpretation of the red lines/bottom lines of both sides: China's red line is Taiwan's independence, which is absolutely unacceptable; the US's red line is military conflict in the Taiwan Strait. This has been the consistent statement of both sides over the past few decades, and each side's red lines and bottom lines should be made clear. 4) It is believed that as long as both sides clarify the bottom line, there will be no conflict: As long as both sides clarify the boundaries and bottom lines, conflicts can be avoided, and "there is no need to worry about conflicts." "Clear" means that each side knows and believes what the other side says, and gives feedback to each other ("receives") 4. Relations between the United States and China (economic and trade relations): It is believed that the United States must decouple from China. Here, Vivek is not speaking from the perspective of the revitalization of the US domestic industry, but from the perspective of the management of geopolitical conflicts between China and the US. He believes that, first, key materials, necessities, supply chains, etc. must be decoupled from China; second, sensitive industries such as military industry must be completely decoupled from China; third, the US cannot rely on China to provide the "modern lifestyle" of the US (that is, the US cannot survive without "China"). The purpose of reducing dependence/decoupling is to minimize the impact on the US after a conflict occurs. [Note that their logic is not to minimize the possibility of bilateral conflict by strengthening and deepening Sino-US ties, but to stay away from China and reduce the cost of a conflict if it occurs. This is actually based on their basic judgment that due to various internal and external factors, the US and China cannot coexist and win together politically and economically for a long time. "Since we can't come together, the farther we are from each other, the better." 5. US policy toward other countries ("outflanking"): 1) It is believed that the Sino-Russian alliance must be weakened, and Russia must be united to contain China. As long as the Sino-Russian alliance is weakened, the possibility of conflict can be reduced (including Eurasia and East Asia). Ending the Russian-Ukrainian conflict can play this role; in addition, the United States should try to reach a "reasonable agreement" with Russia to pull Russia to the side of the United States and make China believe that Russia will not "automatically" and tacitly support China. The core idea of ​​MAGA is to repair the relationship between the United States and Russia, weaken the Sino-Russian relationship in the Sino-US-Russian triangle, and even "ally with Russia to contain China." In the past, the logic of the establishment/Washington elites/"deep government" was to be resolutely anti-Russian and it was impossible to ally with Russia. Trump/MAGA is not only more realistic, but also recognizes Russia in terms of system and values, and even secretly admires Russia. 2) Believes that it is necessary to strengthen relations with allies, such as Japan, South Korea, India and the Philippines. Believes that the United States cannot seek to decouple from China on the one hand, and seek to decouple from allies such as Japan, South Korea, India and the Philippines on the other hand, exacerbating economic and trade conflicts with these countries, and just want to move manufacturing back to the United States. You can't have it all; you can't have your cake and eat it too. In order to contain China, the United States must strengthen its ties with these countries. Ultimately, this is a "choose one of two" issue. India is mentioned in particular, and it is believed that relations with India should be strengthened to weaken China's ties with the Middle East through the Indian Ocean/Andaman Sea (such as oil supply)

6. Get rid of the constraints of traditional/orthodox international relations theory thinking. They believe that the United States now needs "leadership" and "cannot rely solely on international relations theory to form opinions." They need to break through the constraints of traditional thinking and find new ideas and new ways to break through. Trump is currently the only politician in the United States who can help achieve this. [It can be seen that Trump/MAGA does not believe in orthodox Western international relations theory (that is, from Gramham Allison to Mearsheimer and his ilk). These theories are the underlying theoretical basis that has influenced and shaped the Washington establishment, the "deep state," and the military-industrial complex since the Cold War. As a result, the United States has been constantly involved in and trapped in external conflicts. From JD Vance, Vivek Ramaswamy to Tucker Carlson, the views of the core MAGA opinion leaders are very consistent]