The election is stalemate. Real-time updates of US election information

Collation: Golden Finance

The 2024 presidential election is in a stalemate, and Trump and Harris are equally popular. On November 5, Eastern Time, the United States will usher in the voting day for the new presidential election. As the two will decide the winner, Golden Finance has sorted out the relevant content of the US election as follows.

Stand by Harris

Harris's final message to supporters: Enjoy the election

With less than a day to go before the election, Democratic presidential candidate Harris held rallies across Pennsylvania, trying to show a united vision. "What you have to do today, and what you have been doing, is for us to enjoy it," said Harris's canvassers. At one of the events, Harris once again avoided saying the name of her Republican opponent, instead calling Trump "the other guy." "I am very different from this other person, and that's what everybody knows, and that's why you're here to help us get votes," Harris said. The divisions in contemporary American politics "make people feel lonely," Harris said. "So I've been thinking about our campaign over the next 24 hours, when we vote, when we canvass, let's be intentional about building communities, building alliances, reminding people that we all have more in common than what separates us from each other."

A user bet $5 million on Harris's victory on Polymarket

Cointelegraph posted on the X platform that a user bet $5 million today on Harris's victory.  

There are less than 7 hours left before the betting deadline. The probability of Trump's victory on Polymarket is temporarily reported as 58.8%, and the probability of Harris's victory is temporarily reported as 41.3%.

The correlation record between the S&P 500 and the election results indicates that Harris may win the election

Historical data shows that when the S&P 500 (SPX) is higher in the three months before the election, the incumbent party candidate has an 80% chance of winning. Conversely, when the S&P 500 is lower in the three months before the election, the other party candidate has an 89% chance of winning.  

It is reported that this has been a very accurate signal in every election since 1928. Commentators said that if the S&P 500 index had not wiped out 8% of its gains since August in one day, Harris would have a high chance of winning.  

At the same time, the market experts interviewed also pointed out that the current market and political landscape are very unique, making this election more likely to be an exception to the above historical experience.

Zhu Su: The market is flocking to Harris Concept "Beta Investment" Targets

Zhu Su, co-founder of Three Arrows Capital, posted on social media that the market is flocking to Harris Concept "Beta Investment" targets. Among them, Harris Concept Meme Token KAMA broke through $0.015, up more than 40% in 24 hours.

Standing on Trump

Trump: We will make America rich again

Former US President Trump said that our current economy is the worst since the Great Depression of 1929, and it will get worse. We will make America rich again, and most importantly, we will make American prices affordable again. (The current) prices are too high.  

Plan to significantly cut taxes on workers and small businesses. We will not tax tips, non-overtime wages, and social security benefits. To quickly reduce inflation, I will end Harris' energy war on America and will lower energy prices. We will cut energy prices in half.

Musk's "million-dollar sweepstakes" campaign allowed to go ahead

Ahead of Tuesday's U.S. presidential election, Musk's campaign to give away millions of dollars a day to voters escaped a legal challenge from the Philadelphia district attorney after a Pennsylvania judge refused to block it. Pennsylvania is a key swing state. A Pennsylvania judge rejected a request by the district attorney to stop the contest, which he called an illegal lottery. Musk's lawyers said at a hearing that the winners of the contest were not picked at random. The winners were chosen based on whether they were "suitable" to be public spokespersons for Musk's political action committee, often based on their personal stories. The judge ruled shortly afterwards, without any argument.

Musk's X platform post mentioned "PNut" again

Golden Finance reported that Musk mentioned "PNut" again when he retweeted a tweet.

Robert Kennedy Jr. canvasses for Trump

Former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. posted on social media, Vote for Trump. No matter which state you live in, don't vote for me. Let's send President Trump back to the White House and send me to Washington so that we can make America healthy again, end endless wars, and protect our civil liberties.

American podcaster Joe Rogan: Support former US President Trump

American podcaster Joe Rogan said on the social media platform "X" that he supports former US President Trump.

South Korea will consider importing more US energy if Trump wins the election

South Korea is considering a plan to increase energy imports from the United States if Donald Trump wins the election and increases pressure on trading partners, according to people familiar with the matter. Officials in Seoul have spent months preparing for a Trump or Harris presidency, and the trade-dependent country is expected to face greater risks if Trump wins. One key area of ​​close scrutiny is South Korea’s growing trade surplus with the U.S. The South Korean government could push companies to increase purchases of U.S. oil and gas if the trade imbalance becomes a sticking point during Trump’s presidency, people familiar with the matter said.

The largest address betting on Trump’s victory continues to add $3.1 million

The largest address betting on Trump’s victory on Polymarket, 0xd23...f29, has added another $3.1 million in the past six hours.  

He has now invested 17.2 million USDC on Trump’s victory, and he will make $10.94 million if Trump wins.  

But if Trump does not win the election, all his investments will be zeroed out (if he does not have other hedge operations).

JP Morgan estimates Trump's chances of winning the US election are 60% to 70%

According to Cointelegraph, JP Morgan estimates Trump's chances of winning the US election are 60% to 70%, and predicts that if the Republicans "Red Sweep", the US dollar will rise by 5%; if the US Congress is split, the US dollar will rise by 1.5% to 2%.

A Polymarket user sold $3.15 million in positions betting on Trump's victory in the past hour

According to Lookonchain monitoring, Polymarket whale user "larpas" is selling all his positions betting on Trump's victory in the US election. In the past hour, he has sold positions worth about $3.15 million. Interestingly, just 20 hours ago, the whale withdrew $500,000 USDC from Binance to continue betting on Trump's victory. Just 20 hours later, he regretted it and is selling all his positions.

The largest address on Polymarket betting on Trump's victory has increased its position by $2.35 million in the past 6 hours

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin, after it was mentioned in the morning that the 0x9ad...883 address bought $5 million in Harris' victory and became the largest address on Polymarket betting on Harris' victory, the largest address on Polymarket betting on Trump's victory has increased its position by $2.35 million in the past 6 hours. Now: 0xd23...f29 address bought $14.13 million in Trump's victory and earned $8.78 million by winning; 0x9ad...883 address bought $5.02 million in Harris' victory and earned $5.85 million by winning.

The impact of the US election on cryptocurrency and the economy

Viewpoint: History shows that no matter who wins, Bitcoin may rise after the US election

According to CoinDesk analysis, Bitcoin, which was born in 2009, is about to usher in the fourth US election. Data from the first three elections show that Bitcoin has always maintained an upward momentum after the US election and has never fallen back to the price on election day. If this trend reappears, the price of Bitcoin should peak in about a year.

The 2012 US election was also held on November 5, when the price of Bitcoin hovered around $11. In November 2013, the price of Bitcoin peaked, with an increase of nearly 12,000%, and the price of Bitcoin climbed to more than $1,100.  

During the first week of November 2016, the US election, the price of Bitcoin was around $700. In December 2017, the price of Bitcoin peaked at around $18,000, an increase of about 3,600%.  

The US election in November 2020, which coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic, saw Bitcoin rise 478% a year later to a market high of around $69,000. In March 2024, Bitcoin hit a new high of over $73,000.  

After each Bitcoin halving event, although its price was much higher than four years ago, the increase narrowed and the rate of return gradually decreased. The percentage drop between the first and second numbers is 70%, and between the second and third numbers is 87%. If we continue this trend and assume that the drop is about 90%, it means a post-election increase of about 47.8%. This would put Bitcoin at about $103,500 in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Bernstein raises expected Bitcoin price, Trump's victory may push it to $80,000 to $90,000

According to TheBlock, the latest report from investment research firm Bernstein predicts that regardless of the outcome of the US election, the price of Bitcoin is expected to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. Analysts believe that Trump is seen as a pro-cryptocurrency candidate, while Harris may continue the Democratic Party's tough stance over the past four years.  

Bernstein analysts predict that if Trump wins, the price of Bitcoin may break through its all-time high of $80,000 to $90,000 before Inauguration Day (January 20, 2025). Harris' victory may cause Bitcoin to fall to $50,000 during the same period, higher than the previously predicted range of $30,000 to $40,000.  

The report points out that the main drivers of Bitcoin include lax fiscal discipline in the United States, record debt levels and monetary expansion, which have pushed up demand for hard assets. The success of the US spot Bitcoin ETF has further accelerated this trend.

Viewpoint: Bitcoin has risen in the month before and after each US presidential election in history

According to Lookonchain monitoring, the price of Bitcoin has risen in the month before and after each US presidential election in history. Since October 5, 2024, the price of Bitcoin has risen by 10.99%.

QCP Capital: The results of the US election this week will determine the direction of the crypto market, and it remains cautious

Singapore crypto investment institution QCP Capital wrote: "As Polymarket's odds get closer to the actual poll results, the election competition between Harris and Trump is becoming increasingly fierce. Although Polymarket's odds are still more optimistic about Trump at 55%, this is a significant drop from 66% a week ago. Small price fluctuations during the weekend and the reduction of leveraged perpetual contract positions on various exchanges from 30 billion to 26 billion indicate that the market remains cautious. So, does this indicate a period of calm before breaking the multi-month price range and heading for a record high? The options market seems to think so, because since last Friday, we have seen high positions At the same time, as realized volatility remained at 40% and implied volatility climbed to more than 87% on Friday, options positions related to the election date were also increasing. We expect spot prices to fluctuate in this range until the election results become clearer this week. A Trump win is likely to trigger an immediate price increase, while a Harris win could trigger a price decline. "JPMorgan: U.S. stocks will be boosted if the U.S. election leads to political deadlock JPMorgan strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas expects U.S. stocks to rise in the final stages of 2024 once the results of the U.S. presidential election are known, especially if the result is a political deadlock. "In either stalemate scenario, we believe that U.S. stock prices will rise as uncertainty is resolved, volatility declines and hedge strategies are unwound, and investors will turn their attention back to the Fed as the economy and corporate earnings remain resilient," he wrote in a note to clients on Monday.

JP Morgan: Fed may pause easing cycle as early as December if Trump wins

JPMorgan analyst David Kelly said that if Trump wins the U.S. election this week, the Federal Reserve may pause its easing cycle as early as December. Kelly believes that Trump's expansionary fiscal policy plans will push up inflation and prevent interest rates from falling. He said, "If Trump wins the election, he will adopt a more expansionary fiscal policy, which may trigger a trade war, the deficit will expand, and interest rates will rise." Kelly also said that the Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its interest rate decision on Friday, even if the election is held before then.

Matrixport: Bitcoin in neutral territory ahead of US election, volatility selling shows potential

Matrixport released a chart saying that as the US presidential election approaches, market traders' anxiety has increased, but Bitcoin remains in a neutral zone. Currently, Bitcoin's 21-day relative strength index (RSI) has fallen to 56%, well below the overbought critical value of 70%, indicating that Bitcoin is neither overbought nor oversold.  

Since a neutral RSI usually indicates that traders are less shocked when the market moves, the neutral RSI means that Bitcoin's risk premium (including high implied volatility) may decline after the election. This is in stark contrast to the bear market decline in March when the RSI value reached 80%, and the sharp rebound in July and August when the RSI was only 25%. Given this situation, selling volatility seems to be a promising strategy this week. Morgan Stanley Strategist: 'Fear of missing out' could push S&P 500 to 6,100 by year-end Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson believes the S&P 500 could continue to climb by year-end, and a 5% gain from now is not out of the question as investors breathe a sigh of relief after the U.S. presidential election and fear of missing out (FOMO) emerges at year-end. But the strategist warned that enthusiasm could fade as 2025 rolls around, with no clear catalyst in sight. "I think we could see 6,000 if there's not too much panic and people feel good about the situation," Wilson said. That would mean a nearly 5% gain from Friday's close of around 5,728. Wilson then added that the S&P 500 could rise as high as 6,100, but that it would not break above that level this year "under any circumstances" because valuations are too high and price-to-earnings ratios will struggle to expand further as we head toward 2025.

Morgan Stanley: Markets should remain cautious amid uncertainty in US election

Michael D Zezas, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, said investors' main goal during the US election should be to build situational awareness and avoid overconfidence in the election results and market impact. Investors may benefit from adjusting their expectations. He said that the rising probability of a Republican victory implied by the forecast market has led some to expect that the election will produce a clear result on election night. Morgan Stanley believes this is possible, but not the most likely scenario. Neither candidate appears to be a clear favorite to win the Electoral College, so the long vote counting in 2020 may reappear. Given the poor performance of early voting data in the past, Morgan Stanley does not attach much importance to the data and advises not to over-interpret the short-term market trends. The company said that the market's short-term reaction to the election is often noisy and may not be indicative of medium-term trends.

Analyst: Trump's victory may reduce the likelihood of the Fed's rate cuts

Sonja Marten, an analyst at Germany's Central Bank, said in a report that Trump's victory may reduce the likelihood of the Fed's rate cuts, thereby benefiting the dollar. She said that Trump's tariffs and immigration plans are expected to trigger inflation, while tax cuts will lead to a short-term economic boom. "All of this will greatly reduce the likelihood of the Fed's rate cuts. In this case, the US dollar is expected to react significantly and positively."

Commonwealth Bank of Australia: If Harris wins, the US dollar may depreciate by 1%-2% this week

The New Zealand dollar strengthened against the US dollar in early trading due to possible position adjustments before the US presidential election on Tuesday. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) global economics and market research team said in a report that the US dollar "has the potential to trade in a wide range this week" due to the election. The team said that if Trump leads in the early count of in-person voting, the dollar may climb.  

However, Democratic voters are more inclined to vote by mail or in person in advance, and these ballots take longer to count, the team said. As a result, the team said Trump's lead could shrink or disappear later this week. The team added that if Harris wins, the dollar could depreciate by 1%-2% this week.

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