The game between VC and project owners: financing, valuation and changes in the cryptocurrency world

Author: Ryanqyz Source: X, @Ryanqyz_hodl

About VC:

- VCs with normal rhythm in the last cycle have made money

- These VCs have expanded the size of their funds by 3-10 times in this cycle and raised funds again, resulting in too much money on hand

- But there are not enough good projects, but they must be spent, so any project with a little bit of appeal will increase the round of financing to raise the valuation and get money they don’t need

- Old projects that died three years ago can also come out and get a new round of VC financing

- This has also greatly increased the VC cost of good projects and the psychological expectations of currency holders

- Finally, a good project issues coins, so they quickly focus on PR. After 6 or 12 months, they can only unlock and sell the coins. If they haven’t unlocked them before, they have to find a way to sell the coins/hedge first

- In short, VCs don’t make money, and LPs suffer the most

About new projects:

- Because mature founders invest the same amount of time in small and large projects, and sell coins the same way, they only do big projects

- Big projects = high valuations = infra

- Infras appear in large numbers, but there are no applications/real income on them, so they can only subsidize/inflate their volume

- Where does your own money come from? From VC, it’s free anyway

- Because you already understand the Playbook for listing and opening the market, and have a clear goal of selling coins, you will open the market with a high valuation, and then sell the least coins to get the most money, and then the market buying will dry up, but you still have to sell coins, it’s impossible not to sell coins

- After the first wave of buying on the opening of a coin ends, it can only fall, and the end time is generally 1-3 days, and it basically can’t last more than three days

- Then create fluctuations and continue to sell coins

- If the market is good, occasionally make it to the list of gainers, and then continue to sell coins

- In short, the first principle of doing a project is to sell coins; very few projects create value (or rely on cheating) and rely on protocol income

-

About old projects: - Dead projects use the relatively high-quality Captable invested three years ago to raise funds again (in fact, they have no contact with those funds anymore). Most of them use KOL round, and a few find funds to take over - In order to be listed on BN, they continue to raise funds to brush data, but there are still no real users and no real use cases - In fact, they can't be listed on BN, so there are two ways, bribe other exchanges/dex to list coins - dex listing = zero, bribe exchange = zero (the bribe money must be earned back by selling coins) - In short, this type of project can only be zeroed, because they are unlikely to do it well About the head exchanges: - The service provided by the exchange to the project party is equivalent to the pool on the chain - Adding a pool to a coin is definitely a good thing for the project - So the project must pay the exchange, which is understandable and in line with business common sense - The exchange has people who need to please, that is, the big players - Projects that are in the interests of big players need to be listed, so LRT must be listed - Projects that are in their own interests need to be listed, so those who have invested, those with users, new things, and those that can compete with other exchanges can be listed - Because liquidity is king, listing on an exchange has become the most important part of doing a project - The exchange plays an important role in user education and liquidity provision, and should be given an important position and matching profits

- Then he will quietly accept your principal:)

To sum up, doing a project has become creating an illusory thing. There is no need to do anything, as long as you can sell the coins, because the essence is to create a mob and then sell the coins

In this case, there is no difference between VC coins and meme coins

About ETH:

- The big players changed their thinking and became POS. Anyway, it is not POW, nor is it a coin speculation idea, nor is it a deposit and pay idea, but a free idea.

- The big players do not participate in the real construction, which refers to the construction that has a direct positive impact on the price of ETH, including but not limited to making memecoins, pulling high-quality memecoins, and creating a unique eth cult culture. In short, they do nothing

- The only two reasons to buy ETH in this cycle are re-staking and ETF, but this has nothing to do with retail investors, so ETH essentially has no good, strong, and immediately clear reasons to buy.

- ETH still has the most developers, the most nodes, and the most ecological projects. It is still the most robust blockchain.

- But these projects on ETH have ulterior motives and want to sell their own air coins to retail investors, so that they can only make money for themselves.

- In short, it is not easy for retail investors to make money on ETH.

About SOL:

- Large investors stick together, have a big picture, and understand what retail investors are thinking

- The scale of large investors is 400,000-2mil sols. They spend 1wsol to make a so-called cult memecoin or find someone they know to make a memecoin. It's so easy

- Groups pull up memes, make a lot of small pools of memecoin, and send them to 100-500mil

- Retail investors are dazzled by so many memecoins and fomo crazily

- KOLs earn attention by shouting orders and complete wealth transfer, and these coins really rise

- KOLs form a gradient and shouting range, with top streamers such as Hsaka and Ansem in one tier, some with 100k followers in one tier, and others in another tier (these are mainly KOCs), shouting out coins in different market value ranges, which are probably 500mil+, 100-500mil, 10-100mil, and lottery players below 10mil.

- This increases the vitality of the SOL ecosystem and allows retail investors to carry their SOL

- Because retail investors all hold SOL, the SOL maxi army is naturally formed, and the SOL flip ETH sentiment is rampant among retail investors. These people get the pleasure of memecoin and forget the rollback risk of SOL and that the memecoin in their hands is essentially air

- SOL enters a positive feedback loop stage, with main character shouting orders, retail investors continue to fomo, continue shouting orders, and continue to fomo

- When will it end? I don’t know. It will end when everyone is disgusted with memecoin.

- In short, SOL has become the best casino and the best casino chip in this cycle, and everyone needs SOL

Judgment:

- The memecoin supercycle is established, and 20 memecoins appear in the top 100 market value coins. A large number of memecoins are between 100-300mil, mainly on SOL.

- The emergence of successful memecoin focus CEX

- The project continues to open with a high market value, but the opening valuation will be significantly reduced. The PR draft says that a large number of project valuation rationalizations have appeared (some project parties have already done this, and the results are good from the online perspective. They have a big pattern and cherish their reputation)

- VCs can only look for web2 to raise money in the next round. They are very jealous of the industry, but it will be painful to report to LP

- High-quality real-use case projects that do not over-finance VCs (or even do not raise funds at all) begin to appear, using other more decent ways to transfer benefits

- Audit/security companies that truly create value are slowly beginning to be valued, and high-quality audits have become an important part of the industry: BlockSec, Hexagate, Hypernative

- For non-meme projects, the market will return to favoring projects with real income, real monopoly, and real use cases (I hope they will have innovative ways to link tokens and businesses)

- The next round is the real application cycle

To my readers:

- Buy BTC and put it in a cold wallet. Sell some when the old men come, buy some when your parents scold you for being stupid, and keep the rest. Don’t tell anyone

- Find a way to get money from VC/project parties: build projects/provide services for projects

- Find a way to get money from other retail investors: provide services to retail investors

- Do not buy VC coins, especially high-market-cap VC coins (end: can’t outperform BTC)

- Try to buy 10mil-100mil SOL memecoin and sell it at the stage of 100-500mil

- Do not participate in old projects. There are reasons why they did not issue coins in the last cycle

- Verify all the information you want to know carefully after seeing it. If you cannot verify it, it is false by default

- Identify valuable content accounts and give them more interaction (<1% of accounts are still doing this)