The political venture capital of the top brother made 5 billion in 5 days

Source: Zuoye Waiboshan

The big boy turned into a little girl, and the awakened Musk angrily switched to the Republican Party. Today I know who I am. After playing the Elden Ring, on October 28, 2022, Musk bought Twitter for $44 billion.

People don’t know Musk’s true feelings at the time. The entire Silicon Valley has been tied to the Democratic Party for more than 30 years. Even if someone is dissatisfied with the Democratic Party occasionally, they can only make a balanced policy and donate to both parties. A businessman like Musk who is All in Trump is too alternative.

But at least, his long-time friend Peter Thiel can understand all this. Peter Thiel is Vance's sponsor, and Musk's all-in is Trump. One is bright and the other is dark, one is positive and the other is vice. Rather than saying that this election is a victory for Trumpism, it is better to say that it is a reversal of Musk and Peter Thiel.

In the final analysis, Musk is a businessman. The cost he pays is ultimately expected to create more profits, especially the direct consequence of gambling on politics is that it will be liquidated in waves. If he wins this election, then what about four years later? What about eight years later? Only by becoming a real controller can he be invincible. Musk's thinking is also very simple. He has become the spokesperson for the entire American high-tech industry and the new breadwinner of millions of workers, and he can naturally survive political fluctuations.

This article will roughly estimate how much Musk has invested in this election, and how much direct benefits and expected benefits can be achieved.

"How many times can you earn from farming?" He said, "Ten times." "How many times can you earn from pearls and jade?" He said, "One hundred times." "How many times can you earn from establishing a country?" He said, "Countless."

The above are the two largest expenditures, of which direct donations are around $100 million, but the purchase of Twitter is obviously to help Trump's political campaign, so it is also included.

Next is Musk's profit potential. First, the Tesla stock price that everyone is excited about has risen. His personal net worth has soared by 10% in a single day. Musk personally holds 20.5% of Tesla shares, and before acquiring Twitter, he probably held 22% of Tesla shares. He had a period of selling after the acquisition of Twitter. The market generally believes that this part of the debt belongs to Musk personally.

Let's do some calculations. Of the $44 billion used to acquire Twitter, $13 billion was attributable to Twitter's debts, and Musk sold shares worth about $23.08 billion before and after the acquisition. Considering that Musk's acquisition of Twitter was purely political speculation, therefore, $23.08+1.77 = $23.257 billion is his actual investment cost for this election, because Twitter's commercial value is obviously too low compared to social products such as Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.

Based on the cost price of $23.257 billion, it is obvious that Musk's rate of return cannot be calculated based on the increase of (2900-2620)/1.77=158 times in 5 days. If there is such a good business, then obviously speculators in the entire financial market will participate crazily. Musk's real profit should be (2900-2620)-232.57= 4.743 billion US dollars , which is more reasonable.

Of course, no matter how you calculate it, it's all for fun, so don't get too entangled. But what's interesting is that Musk's additional profits, mainly Bitcoin, Dogecoin and expected government contracts in the future, compared with short-term investment returns, these may be the big ones.

Human wisdom is contained in two words, hope and waiting.

Musk prepared for the Republican-Trump victory for two years, but he has been trying to get orders for SpaceX for more than 10 years, most of which are government orders. It is the same reason that Tesla relied on selling carbon credits to make a living in the early days. When the business grows to a certain size, it is impossible not to have relationships with the government and enterprises. Let's take these factors into consideration and see how much money Musk can theoretically make after this election.

Picture Description: Elon Musk’s personal timeline

First is the Bitcoin held by Musk through Tesla. There are still 11,509 Bitcoins, which are purchased for 1.5 billion in 2021. The remaining 43,200 bitcoins were purchased at an average price of about $35,000. Although Tesla has sold some of them, with both losses and gains, this portion of bitcoin is now worth $860 million. Due to frequent price fluctuations and the fact that it is nothing to Musk, who is worth hundreds of billions, we will tentatively count it as an expected return of $1 billion.

The second is the return on Dogecoin, which is indeed impossible to calculate. Although Musk himself is likely to hold Dogecoin, it cannot be confirmed or confirmed. It can only be counted as part of Musk's concept stocks/coins, which is really impossible to calculate.

Finally, there are government orders. Unlike what everyone imagines, the proportion of the US government's fiscal expenditure to GDP has been stable at around 40-50% for many years. Government orders are crucial to all kinds of large companies, especially high-tech companies. For example, Amazon's boss Bezos, who announced his neutrality this time, offended Trump, and then Microsoft Cloud got the government cloud service order of tens of billions of dollars that AWS lost. By the way, although Gates donated $75 million to Harris, Microsoft also donated a lot to the Republican Party and cut its own DEI department (Diversity, equity, and inclusion), showing a flexible political positioning.

At present, Musk's companies include SpaceX, Twitter (X), Tesla, The Boring Company, Neuralink and xAI. Among them, the main products that can obtain government contracts are rocket launches and communication services such as Starlink. For example, as of 2020, when Trump's first term ended, Musk had obtained about $8 billion in government rocket launch contracts, mainly from NASA and the Air Force.

At present, with Boeing's weakness (two astronauts are still in the sky) and Bezos' Blue Origin's slow progress, rocket launch contracts will also increase significantly during Trump's second term. In June of this year, NASA gave SpaceX a contract worth $843 million.

In addition, the US government will also strengthen its support for the next generation of communication networks, and Starlink has received a $70 million contract from the US Space Force. These services will also increase further with Trump's inauguration.

Conclusion

If Zhang Juzheng is a model of being good at planning for the country but poor at planning for himself, then Musk is the incarnation of Lu Buwei. It is better to engage in political venture capital than business. With $23 billion and two years of layout, Tesla's stock price alone earned back the cost within 5 days and made a profit of nearly $5 billion.

In the long run, government contracts and subsidies over a four-year period will become more real as D.O.G.E. becomes more real. Although the top brother claims to cut government spending by $2 trillion, it certainly does not include his own government contracts.