There is only one way forward for Bitcoin, and that is up

Source: Liu Jiaolian

The current crypto market is like the early spring in the north, when it is still cold. Suddenly, it is extremely hot for a few days. When you just take off your clothes, it will be extremely cold for a few days. People who do not put on more clothes in time may even get sick from the ups and downs of the temperature.

As the old saying goes, cover yourself in spring and freeze in autumn. People in spring have just come from the cold winter and cannot adapt suddenly. They should wear warmer clothes and avoid the sudden return of the rising temperature and catch a cold.

Reducing clothes is like adding positions.

Just in the past round, below 30,000 dollars, that was a severe winter. The time is from June 2022 to October 2023.

30,000 to more than 60,000 dollars, and even broke through the high before 2021. From October 2023 to April 2024, the production will be halved soon. This is the early spring when winter has just passed and spring has come.

The ground is full of Artemisia selengensis and the reed buds are short, which is when the pufferfish is about to come up.

Reducing clothes should be done slowly, and adding positions should be done slowly. Don't take off your coat and sweater and put on a short-sleeved T-shirt when you see the temperature is rising. The sun is shining at noon, and you will sweat when you are outdoors. What's more, some people take off their clothes and dive into the still freezing sea water to swim. This is easy to catch a cold.

Be patient and be patient.

Don't be anxious or impatient. Spring has come, can summer be far behind?

Looking far away, there is only one winding and rugged road in front of BTC (Bitcoin), and that is upward.

Setbacks are temporary, but victory is inevitable.

A primary school kid asked me what the word "belief" means. I said that belief means that you firmly believe that you will succeed and win.

I happened to see someone talking about the ratio (exchange rate) of gold and BTC. Currently, BTC/t.oz (troy ounce) is about $2384 / $63400 = 0.0376. The historical extreme value of this exchange rate is 0.028. I think everyone can guess the time point, which is near the two bull tops in 2021, namely April and November 2021.

In the above figure, the purple dotted line is the exchange rate trend of gold and BTC in the past 15 years. The two red arrows point out the two historical lows in April and November 2021. In the past, as indicated by the black arrow in the figure, every time the exchange rate fell below the previous extreme point again, it would trigger a wave of BTC surge, pushing the exchange rate to a new low.

Some people have expressed concerns. Worried that if the US dollar really fails, then BTC will not be priced?

This kind of thinking is just like worrying that "without entrepreneurs, then there will be no one to pay wages to workers", or "without landlords, then there will be no one to rent land to farmers for farming". Such people must have an "emperor" in their heads.

Without Zhang the butcher, will we still eat pigs with hair?

AI is to subvert the superstructure, not the economic base. Look, Lebanon has created the world's first AI (artificial intelligence) president. AI has officially become president, is it far from replacing entrepreneurs and managers?

The key is that this AI cannot be "centralized", that is, it cannot be controlled by a behind-the-scenes boss or a single interest group. It must be "decentralized" and represent the interests of the whole, not just the special interests of a certain interest group or a certain person.

Just like BTC. BTC does not represent the unilateral interests of the mining group, the developers, or any single group. BTC represents the overall interests of all participants in the entire BTC ecosystem.

An entrepreneur friend once threatened that AI will eliminate all the bottom-level workers in the future, and then bosses like him will have AI to work for them without sleep, which is great. In my opinion, this is really a fantasy from the bourgeois standpoint. I dare to boldly speculate that even when AI completely replaces and eliminates the entire class of entrepreneurs and their agents, dung collectors, cleaners, and plumbers may not be unemployed.

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Sooner or later, humans will find that in terms of controlling the overall situation and making strategic decisions, people are not as good as computers.

On monetary policy issues, the old men of the Federal Reserve decide the fate of the world as soon as they hold a meeting. I believe that the decisions of a few human beings cannot compare to the calculation and issuance of BTC that is not interfered with by anyone.

The decline of the US dollar is a historical necessity. This is in line with the way of heaven. Nothing can not decline after prosperity.

When the world is accustomed to the decline of value references for decades, various fiat currencies and various assets will inevitably find a new value anchor.

What is the anchor of the US dollar?

Before the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, the anchor of the US dollar was gold. How much gold can be issued to how many US dollars.

After the collapse of Bretton Woods, what is the anchor of the US dollar? Some people say it is oil. Even the term petrodollar was fabricated.

However, it is obvious that the petrodollar and the gold dollar are not the same thing at all. The gold dollar determines the issuance of the US dollar according to the amount of gold reserves. The petrodollar, however, forces only the US dollar to buy oil.

Within 9.6 million square kilometers, only the RMB can buy steamed buns. But we can’t say that the anchor of RMB is steamed buns, right?

The petrodollar is a word-building trick. The anchor of the dollar is not oil itself, but the coercive force that forces oil to be settled in US dollars - the coercive force of the United States on the world, in essence, is force. The essence of force is military force, and the essence of military force is violence.

The dollar, which is unpegged from gold, has transformed from a peaceful currency into a violent currency.

The gold dollar is peaceful because gold is peaceful. Gold is peaceful because gold cannot generate interest.

Gold cannot multiply itself automatically. Gold atoms cannot generate small gold atoms. Gold cannot generate interest naturally, so it has no "rent". Without "rent" for gold, there is no violence and exploitation.

BTC cannot generate interest either. 1 BTC is always equal to 1 BTC. Therefore, BTC is also peaceful, not violent and exploitative. (On the contrary, the ultimate meaning of the PoS token's deposit and interest is violent exploitation. If there is no violence to guarantee exploitation, then its value will inevitably decline)

The anchor of BTC has never been the US dollar. It's just that now people use US dollars to exchange for BTC, so they are used to pricing in US dollars. The anchor of BTC is energy. This energy ultimately comes from the stars in the universe.

The way BTC anchors energy is also completely different from the way the US dollar anchors gold.

The US dollar anchored gold in the past by storing gold in warehouses and issuing an equal amount of US dollars based on it. The problem is that when gold is in short supply or the US dollar is in excess, the balance sheet becomes a lie. In other words, accounting cannot restrain human desires and power at all, and the balance sheet will inevitably become a lie. The end of credit endorsement must be credit bankruptcy. When President Nixon unilaterally announced the suspension of the exchange of US dollars and gold in 1971, the US dollar embarked on the road of credit bankruptcy and left the dust behind.

The way BTC anchors energy is not to save energy, but to consume energy. In this way, energy is returned to the universe, and negative entropy is injected into BTC. There is no balance sheet here, no credit endorsement, and no credit bankruptcy problem at all.

So, in essence, when we talk about the rise of BTC, we are actually talking about the fall of legal currency and other assets (such as gold).

From the perspective of BTC standard, BTC has never risen. 1 BTC is always 1 BTC. It's just that the number of BTC that can be exchanged for 1 US dollar is getting smaller and smaller, and the number of BTC that can be exchanged for 1 ounce of gold is also getting smaller and smaller.