The US presidential election campaign took a dramatic turn when former President Donald Trump narrowly escaped an assassination attempt at a political rally on Saturday, July 13. The incident has raised critical questions: What was the suspect's motive? How was he able to get so close to the rally? And how might this event affect the upcoming election on November 5?
How the Shooting Unfolded
The rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, was Trump's last before the Republican National Convention on July 15. Just minutes into his speech, gunshots rang out. Trump instinctively raised his hand to his right ear and then quickly crouched behind the lectern. Moments later, another round of shots was fired.
Secret Service agents immediately formed a human shield around Trump while armed troopers secured the perimeter. Snipers on nearby rooftops neutralized the attacker, identified as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, within seconds.
Despite the chaos, Trump stood up with blood on his right cheek and defiantly raised his fist, shouting, "Fight, fight, fight." He was then swiftly escorted off the stage to a waiting car, with the crowd still cheering in support.
The Shooter
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) identified Thomas Matthew Crooks of Bethel Park, Pennsylvania, as the suspect behind the assassination attempt. Crooks, a 20-year-old registered Republican, was shot and killed by the Secret Service after he fired shots at Trump.
The FBI is currently investigating Crooks' motive. Tragically, one rally attendee died, and two others were critically injured during the incident. State voter records revealed that the upcoming November 5 election would have been Crooks' first opportunity to vote in a presidential race. Notably, at 17, Crooks made a US$15 donation to ActBlue, a political action committee supporting left-leaning and Democratic politicians, raising questions about his political affiliations and motives.
Impact on the Election
The assassination attempt appears to have bolstered Trump's position in the election. Previously, Trump's favorable tax proposal and President Joe Biden's missteps during the tax debate had already given Trump an edge. This incident has further galvanized his supporters and garnered widespread sympathy.
Even Apple and Tesla CEOs Tim Cook and Elon Musk have weighed in, tweeting with notable diction and referring to Trump as "President Trump," seemingly expressing their beliefs in Trump's re-election prospects. This high-profile endorsement adds to the growing sentiment that Trump could secure a second term.
Shifting Odds on Polymarket
The betting odds on Polymarket, a popular election forecast site, have shifted significantly in Trump's favor since the shooting. The incident has intensified the belief among bettors that Trump is likely to emerge victorious in the upcoming election. Analysts suggest that this sympathy vote, combined with the existing momentum, could prove decisive.
A Steep Challenge for Biden
With the assassination attempt seemingly turning the tide in Trump's favor, President Biden faces an uphill battle to secure re-election. The combined effect of Trump's strengthened support base, high-profile endorsements, and favorable betting odds suggests that Biden will need a remarkable comeback to overcome the current challenges and win the presidency again.
As the election draws near, the impact of this dramatic incident will continue to unfold, shaping the future of the US political landscape.