Trump is likely to be elected, China should resume cryptocurrency mining as soon as possible

The first televised debate for the 2024 US presidential election concluded today, marking the first time in four years that President Biden and former President Trump have faced each other on the same stage.

During the nearly 90-minute back-and-forth, Trump spoke longer than Biden. Trump’s speaking time was approximately 38 minutes and 13 seconds, while Biden spoke for 33 minutes and 41 seconds.

In the first 50 minutes, Biden appeared to struggle, looking rather fatigued, and his voice sounded weak and hoarse. According to Biden's campaign officials, this was due to a cold he had caught over the past few days.

After the first intermission, Biden found his footing and managed to stabilize his base, but for swing voters, his performance in the first half might not inspire much confidence.

CNN reported that some Democrats were quite worried about Biden’s performance in this debate. He did not go all out to point out Trump’s falsehoods, nor did he clearly express his achievements to date or his policy vision. Some even called Biden's performance a "disaster."

In contrast, Trump’s speech was clear and he appeared to be in good spirits. A congressman told CNN, “Even when Trump lies at 60 miles per hour, he seems coherent. Biden, on the other hand, was difficult to understand.”

Following this debate, the prediction market Polymarket gave Trump better odds of winning in the November debates, with bets priced at 68 cents for Trump and 29 cents for Biden. If the prediction comes true, each share pays $1; if not, it pays zero, implying a 68% chance of a Trump victory according to the market.

Cryptocurrency Not Mentioned in the First Debate

Despite cryptocurrency being a significant part of the presidential campaign previously, it was not mentioned in the first general debate of the 2024 US presidential election.

The 90-minute debate started with the economy but also touched on issues like abortion, immigration, and foreign policy. The economy segment was brief, and the debate barely covered technology policy, let alone the digital asset industry.

Trump’s Support for Cryptocurrency Against China

Previously, Trump expressed willingness to support the self-custody of cryptocurrency. He also met with top US crypto miners, encouraging and supporting the development of mining businesses.

In his 78th birthday speech, he emphasized, “Voting for Trump, Bitcoin mining might be our last line of defense against Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).”

He concluded, “Biden’s hatred for Bitcoin only helps China and Russia. We want all remaining Bitcoin to be produced in the US, which will help us become an energy leader.”

China Considering Lifting Ban on Cryptocurrency Mining

On June 26, at the Hashkey New Vision Event, Wang Yang, Vice President of Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, stated that China’s comprehensive ban on cryptocurrency mining was very unwise, leading miners to move to the US, bringing over $4 billion in tax revenue to America.

He suggested that with Republican presidential candidate Trump possibly winning, the Chinese government should reconsider the significance of cryptocurrency. Instead of an outright ban, it might be better to let state-owned enterprises engage in mining or take stakes, ensuring risk control.

In 2021, the Chinese government banned all cryptocurrency trading and mining due to concerns over financial stability, environmental impact, and illegal activities. This ban led to a significant outflow of mining operations, especially Bitcoin mining, to more crypto-friendly jurisdictions like the US, Kazakhstan, and Canada. This migration significantly changed the global distribution of mining power, with the US becoming the primary beneficiary.

The relocation of Chinese miners to the US solidified America’s position as a major center for cryptocurrency mining. This shift not only expanded the US tax base but also enhanced its technological and infrastructure capabilities in the blockchain field.

If Trump wins, China may need to reevaluate all these policies shortly. Domestically, there might be a renewed consideration of what digital assets are, whether they should be embraced, and their role in the development of countries within the Belt and Road Initiative. Ultimately, it might lead to the path of real-world asset tokenization (RWA).

However, the current issue is that mentioning cryptocurrency immediately triggers a situation that seems uncontrollable. Still, China’s strategy may indeed need to follow this path, and it’s a question worth pondering in advance.