Trump Presidency Could Boost Solana ETF Approval Odds, Analysts Say, as BlackRock Joins VanEck and 21Shares in Filing

The race for a Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US just got a lot more interesting.

BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager with a staggering $9 trillion under management, is reportedly considering joining VanEck and 21Shares in filing for a Solana ETF.

This move by BlackRock signifies a growing institutional interest in Solana, a high-speed blockchain network designed to handle thousands of transactions per second.

While BlackRock hasn't officially filed an application yet, CEO Larry Fink's recent announcement about tapping into the Solana ecosystem suggests it's only a matter of time.

A Flurry of Filings – VanEck, 21Shares, and Now BlackRock

The tide began to turn for Solana ETFs in late June when VanEck, a major ETF provider, filed an S-1 form with the SEC, seeking approval for a Solana-based ETF.

Hot on their heels, 21Shares, another prominent player in the crypto ETF space, revealed plans for a similar offering.

Now, with BlackRock potentially entering the fray, the pressure is mounting on the SEC to make a decision.

The SEC's Decision Clock is Ticking

The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) threw its hat into the ring in early July, filing 19b-4 forms with the SEC to list both the VanEck and 21Shares Solana ETFs.

This triggered a 240-day clock for the SEC, meaning they have until mid-March 2025 to approve or reject these applications.

Will Trump or Biden Decide Solana's ETF Fate?

While the SEC has a set timeframe for making a decision, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas throws a wild card into the mix.

He suggests that the outcome might hinge on the results of the upcoming US presidential election in November.

According to Balchunas, a Biden win could spell doom for these Solana ETFs, essentially leaving them "dead on arrival."

Conversely, a Trump victory might create a more crypto-friendly environment, increasing the chances of approval.

This is because Trump has softened his stance on cryptocurrencies in recent years, even launching his own NFTs on the Solana network in a bid to woo crypto voters.

SEC's Stance on Crypto and the Lack of a Regulated Futures Market

Despite the growing momentum behind Solana ETFs, there are still hurdles to overcome.

The SEC has historically viewed certain cryptocurrencies, including Solana, as securities.

This raises regulatory concerns, as SEC approval for ETFs typically hinges on the existence of a well-established and regulated futures market for the underlying asset.

The lack of such a market for Solana could pose a challenge for these ETF applications.

The Long Road to Solana ETF Approval

Even if the political winds blow in favor of crypto under a potential Trump presidency, the SEC's decision-making process is likely to be complex and nuanced.

The agency might still demand additional safeguards or a more mature regulatory framework for the underlying Solana market before approving an ETF.

A Potential Boost for Solana and Crypto as a Whole

The eventual approval of a Solana ETF would be a watershed moment for the cryptocurrency and the broader blockchain industry.

It would provide investors with a regulated and easily accessible way to gain exposure to Solana, potentially leading to a surge in investment and mainstream adoption.

This increased liquidity and institutional participation could significantly boost Solana's price and solidify its position as a major player in the blockchain space.

In 2023, VanEck projected Solana's $SOL valuation for 2030, ranging from $9.81 (bearish) to $3,211.28 (bullish), factoring in market shares and revenue forecasts.

They anticipated up to $8 billion in revenues by 2030.

Now, factoring in the Solana ETF, the values could be higher.

The domino effect could extend to the entire crypto market, paving the way for a new era of acceptance and growth.

A Butterfly Effect for Altcoins?

If approved, a Solana ETF could have a significant impact on the broader cryptocurrency market.

Increased institutional investment in Solana could lead to a price surge, similar to what happened with Bitcoin and Ethereum after their respective ETF approvals.

This positive momentum could also spill over to other altcoins, potentially triggering a bullish trend across the cryptocurrency market.

Increased liquidity and trading volume for Solana could also benefit other altcoins by attracting new investors seeking exposure to the digital asset space.

However, it's important to remember that the correlation between different cryptocurrencies can fluctuate, and the overall impact on altcoins remains to be seen.

A Wait-and-See Game for Investors

With BlackRock potentially joining the game and the SEC's verdict heavily influenced by the upcoming election, the future of Solana ETFs remains shrouded in uncertainty.

Investors interested in gaining exposure to Solana through an ETF will have to wait until mid-March 2025 for a final decision.

However, the developments in July, particularly BlackRock's rumored involvement, signal growing institutional interest in Solana.

This, coupled with the evolving regulatory landscape, suggests that a Solana ETF could become a reality in the not-so-distant future.

Solana is currently trading at $142.76, marking a 1.35% increase over the past 24 hours, with a market cap exceeding $66 billion.