Donald Trump's pro-crypto stance appears to be strengthening his lead over Joe Biden in prediction markets. Trump’s promises include commuting the sentence of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht and advancing the U.S. as a leader in digital assets. In contrast, Biden’s administration has not shown as much support for the crypto industry.
On PredictIt, Biden’s shares have dropped from 46 cents to 44 cents, indicating a 44% chance of re-election. Trump, meanwhile, has gained two percentage points on Polymarket, putting his odds at 56%, with Biden at 37%.
The actual polls show a narrower and less dynamic gap. According to FiveThirtyEight averages, Trump’s lead is only 1.7%. Prediction markets are considered by some as more accurate because bettors have a financial stake in the outcome.
North Dakota governor Doug Burgum is gaining attention as a possible running mate for Trump. On Polymarket, Burgum’s shares are up to 18%, while on PredictIt, they are slightly lower at 15%. He trails Tim Scott, who leads with 23% on PredictIt and 27% on Polymarket.
An issue has arisen on Polymarket regarding the definition of "approval" for Ethereum ETFs by the U.S. SEC. Despite the SEC green-lighting critical documents, full approval requires more steps. This confusion led to profitable bets for some users on Polymarket.
James Seyffart from Bloomberg Intelligence clarifies that both the S-1 registration and 19b-4 filings need SEC approval for ETFs to be fully sanctioned. Matthew Sigel from VanEck reiterates this point.
Despite the complexities, Polymarket resolved the contract as "yes." This decision led to significant gains for some bettors. For instance, one user turned $300 into $4,358, while another made a 61% return on a $10,000 bet.
Trump’s proactive approach to crypto is influencing his standing in prediction markets, contrasting with Biden’s more cautious stance. Meanwhile, procedural ambiguities in the SEC’s approval process for Ethereum ETFs have created profitable opportunities for informed bettors. However, these developments underscore the uncertainties and potential misinterpretations in both political and financial predictions.
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