What can be called the sexiest narrative of Web3 in 2024, "Trump becomes the first Bitcoin president", came to an end on the evening of November 5, US time. Bitcoin has also broken through the wide range of fluctuations that has lasted for half a year, breaking through the previous high of around $73,700, and reaching a maximum of $76,000.
In the traditional market perception, Trump meme coins, which are most closely associated with Trump, will rise sharply with the news of Trump's election, but what is interesting is that on November 6, when Trump was elected and Web3 was in a carnival, as long as they did not rise, they would appear on the decline list of mainstream exchanges. However, the Trump series of meme coins did not have an outstanding performance on the day of his election, but instead were "halved".
For example, the address 0x2f6...1Be78 invested nearly $250,000 to buy 70,000 TRUMPs at an average price of $3.55 at the high point yesterday morning under the FOMO sentiment that Trump's votes had a large advantage. Currently, the floating loss is $88,000 (about 35.5%).
From the performance of Trump series meme coins since their issuance, taking Trump as an example, on the eve of Trump's election, the price was already at a relatively low level. An interesting point is that when we observe Trump's currently published accounts, from May to now, Trump's encrypted address account has more than three million US dollars, and the main loss comes from Trump's eponymous meme coins. The number has not decreased, but as the price shrinks, the assets of Trump's address have also shrunk significantly.
After Trump's successful election, there is of course an expectation of "good news dissipated", but taking Trump's eponymous token as an example, it has not seen a significant increase and then "halved", which is obviously not in line with common sense.
On the other hand, some of the newly emerged political memes, such as Pnut and D.O.G.E, have not shown a significant decline like Trump and MAGA, but have risen.
Pnut is not exactly the same as memes such as Trump and MAGA. Trump and MAGA are more like "straight-forward" political meme narratives. If we dig deeper into the stories behind them, we can only reflect that this reflects support for Trump, while the story of Pnut can be explored more deeply.
Pnut is the name of the pet that Mark Longo, a mechanical engineer, brought home to raise a little squirrel after he witnessed its mother die in a car accident more than seven years ago. On October 30, officials from the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation arrested Peanut and euthanized him without a search warrant.
Peanut is considered an "illegally raised wild animal", but the public does not agree with it. The American satirical news website Babylon Bee said, "Radical squirrels wearing MAGA hats have started an uprising." Elon Musk has also posted on social media many times to support Peanut. This controversy about Peanut has been used as a propaganda weapon for the Democratic Party's crusade and even a political contest.
From this perspective, we can see that the political series of memes has not ended, but the narrative of the meme supporting Trump is not "sexy" enough.
Interestingly, the "gambling prediction platform" PolyMarket and the Trump series of memes have actually become high-quality products to a certain extent. Investing in the Trump series of memes is not as good as betting on Trump's victory on PolyMarket. The underlying logic is the same. PolyMarket has greatly increased its trading volume and the number of predicted events in 2024, which may also explain the long-term sluggish price of Trump series meme coins.
Related reading: "Polymarket: Positioning, expansion and shadow of the crypto prediction market"
In the eyes of many degens in the market, Trump's rise to the top to become the first "Bitcoin President" in American history is a great narrative that will definitely produce many "golden dogs". On that day, degens were keen to find various "angles" on tweets.
For example, JD Vance's dog Atlas participated in the vote, and the new Sec Chair who might be appointed, Hester, known as the "crypto mother", did not get rid of the logic of "PVP" in the end. After the market value reached several million US dollars, it quickly fell back and then returned to zero. Many "diamond hand degen" failed in PVP on the same day.
When turning our attention from DEX to CEX, the market sentiment is completely different. The sentiment of CEX is very enthusiastic. The "zero-return cottage" that has been scolded by the market for more than half a year has seen very good gains. On the day Trump took office, the "wild manor on the chain" seemed to disappear. Many people believed that: "With the relaxation of supervision and being able to make money on the table, there is really no need to do wild manor on the chain."
DeFi tokens with protocol income have also largely gotten rid of concerns about being identified as "securities". Rune Christensen, founder of Sky (formerly MakerDAO), posted on social media, "Trump's victory will drive a truly lasting revival of DeFi, and the likelihood of a 10-fold increase in users will greatly increase because DeFi has benefited the most from reduced uncertainty in U.S. regulation compared to other aspects of the crypto space."
These DeFi tokens all saw good gains after Trump's election. Uniswap had the largest gain of 46%, Ethena had the largest gain of 72%, Jito had the largest gain of 63%, and Lido DAO had the largest gain of 56%. As of the time of writing, there was a slight decline.
Perhaps in the near future, we will see the "bull market returns quickly", the liquidity in CEX becomes abundant again, and the hot money on the chain is not so active. The meme may no longer be a money-making moment that can reach a market value of 20 million US dollars with a little angle, but a sexier and deeper narrative is needed to drive the growth of consensus.
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