Vaneck Director: Spot Bitcoin ETFs’ Long-Term Impact Underrated

Long-Term Influence of Spot Bitcoin ETFs:

Gurbacs shared insights on social media, noting the tendency for individuals to overestimate the initial impact of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs. He anticipated a relatively modest initial effect, primarily from recycled funds, amounting to a few hundred million dollars. However, he underscored the substantial yet undervalued long-term influence of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Drawing Parallels with Gold's Historical Trajectory:

Referencing history, Gurbacs likened the potential impact of a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF approval to the journey of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) introduced in 2004. Over eight years, following GLD's launch, gold's price quadrupled, surging from $400 to $1,800, escalating its market cap from approximately $2 trillion to $10 trillion.

Bitcoin's Potential Trajectory and Expected Boost:

With Bitcoin's current market cap standing at around $750 billion (less than a third of gold's value in 2004), Gurbacs foresees Bitcoin potentially following a similar trajectory post-spot Bitcoin ETF approval, but at a considerably accelerated pace. He suggested that while several tens of billions might flow from Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs), the influx won't be immediate.

Factors Contributing to the Boost and Wider Adoption:

Gurbacs highlighted factors such as Bitcoin's limited float held by strong and long-term holders, along with systematic scarcity due to halving schedules, as significant influences. He also emphasized that the legitimacy and destigmatization of Bitcoin in portfolios via the ETF would encourage further adoption outside its realm.

Moreover, he predicted that nation states and sovereign wealth funds would directly hold Bitcoin, securing options for mining and establishing Bitcoin-based capital markets. Gurbacs drew parallels with gold's price surge driven by central bank gold adoption outside of ETPs, where the ETFs played a pivotal role in establishing comfort and adoption.