Author: Jesse Walden, co-founder of Variant Fund; Translation: 0xjs@黄金财经
As the market rises, both signals and noise increase.
Signals:
Technology matures, expanding adjacent possibilities
More talented teams are launching interesting projects
Price reflexivity drives more general interest and usage
Experimentation accelerates; new best practices emerge
Noise:
More mercenary teams start hot narratives; copy-paste projects
Everyone launches a story, a token, and the token goes up
A range of projects raise high-priced rounds
Because everyone in crypto is an investor to some degree (either through holding tokens or founding/running a startup), it’s important to have a balanced view of short-term opportunities and a rigorous eye for long-term opportunities to analyze increased volume.
I try to remind myself of a few principles:
Short-term token prices are not indicative of long-term success.
Hot projects are more likely to experience corrections from black swan events.
Time management is critical in a high-noise environment: measure time spent on the short game and the long game. Ignoring one is dangerous, confusing them is even worse.
When working with partners, it’s important to understand what game they’re primarily playing.
After a decade in the crypto industry, I’m still investing for the long term. That being said, it’s important to understand the game at play — and sometimes the best way to understand the game is to play it. There are signals in the noise. But don’t get lost. Use your time wisely.
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Miyuki
