Will Bitcoin break out or crash? Here’s what analysts think

Author: Tom Mitchelhill Source: cointelegraph Translation: Shan Ouba, Golden Finance

Crypto analysts predict three major events in the coming weeks that could push up the price of Bitcoin.  

For the past seven months, Bitcoin has been in a downward trend between $74,000 and $52,000, and investors are increasingly concerned about whether BTC will break out to the upside or continue to fall.  

Market in "wait-and-see" mode

Coinstash co-founder Mena Theodorou told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin's next big move will depend on how the market responds to upcoming political and regulatory changes in the United States during the election season, as well as upcoming macroeconomic data.  

Interest Rates and Jobs Data

Josh Gilbert, market analyst at EToro, told Cointelegraph that he expects the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Sept. 18 to be the next “big catalyst” for Bitcoin’s price action.  

The consensus among market participants is that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will raise interest rates by 0.525%, which Gilbert said is a major positive for risk assets like Bitcoin.

“The bottom line is that a rate cut is coming, but the focus now is on how big it will be. This week’s U.S. jobs data will be the main driver of expectations and could lead to volatility in crypto assets,” Gilbert said.   

Coinstash CEO Tina Wang told Cointelegraph that investors should keep an eye on the upcoming U.S. jobs data, which is due to be released on Sept. 6.  

“The higher-than-expected unemployment rate in July has raised concerns about a possible recession. As we all know, the unemployment rate is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, a higher-than-expected unemployment rate could mean a greater chance of a recession, which is not good news,” she said.

“On the other hand, this could actually be good for the market because it could give the Fed more reason to cut interest rates,” Wang added.  

Breaking ‘Resistance Cluster’

In a Sept. 3 investment note seen by Cointelegraph, IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore said Bitcoin needs a “sustained breakout” above the recent $65,000 high to solidify a proper reversal. 

Sycamore said that if Bitcoin can break above that level, the asset will then face a “resistance cluster” between $70,000 and $74,000 before the market can turn positive. 

Bitcoin is currently trading at $59,140, ​​up 40% since Jan. 1. As of the time of publishing, BTC is still down 20% from its all-time high of $73,800 set on March 14, according to data from TradingView.

In the medium term, Gilbert said investors should prepare for further volatility in September. Historically, September has been the worst month for bitcoin price action, with an average monthly return of -4.3% in the 11 years since 2013.  
Global economic growth remains strong, with an upward revision to US GDP last week, double-digit second-quarter US earnings growth, and rate cuts, all suggesting that the market has further room to rise. There will be major risk events ahead, but there are reasons to be optimistic.