Will BTC reach $100,000 or is the bull run over?

Author: GeekTop; Source: Web3 News

The market is like a roller coaster right now.

One ​​moment, people thought Bitcoin would rise to $100,000; the next moment, people predicted that the bull market was about to end.

If you are confused, you are not alone. There are several major factors that are currently affecting the market in positive and negative ways - from CZ's launch and the US election to ETF approval and FTX payments.

I spent more than 40 hours analyzing market data, trends, and historical patterns to identify key indicators and understand macro events that will give you an advantage in the fourth quarter.

In this article, I will analyze 10 key events and indicators that show why the fourth quarter may be a game-changer for the cryptocurrency industry.

1. September Starts

The market looked quiet in early September, but has now started to grow actively.

Although these movements may seem random, they are predictable.

In past bull markets, especially during the halving cycle, the third quarter is usually a period of consolidation and accumulation.

As we enter the fourth quarter, the market usually changes, making the fourth quarter one of the most profitable periods in crypto.

• In 2020, Bitcoin surged 168% in the fourth quarter after a quiet third quarter.

• In 2016, its gains were less dramatic, but still 60%.

These are very strong historical trends, giving us every reason to expect the same.

2. CZ’s launch

CZ is not only the founder of Binance, but also a leading figure in the cryptocurrency community. On September 29, he was freed from legal trouble, which may be more than symbolic.

While he is no longer the CEO of Binance, his presence and influence on market sentiment remain strong. Historically, the emergence of key figures like CZ has triggered market volatility.

If his release can inspire new optimism or Binance makes strategic moves, this may serve as a psychological trigger for retail investors, driving increased demand.

3. Q3 Retail Indicators

The third quarter saw a large outflow of retail investors and a decline in interest in cryptocurrencies. Usually, ironically, this is very positive news.

Those who missed out on the growth are now entering the market with FOMO, creating a new wave of liquidity. When retail investors flood into the market again, it injects new liquidity, pushing up prices.

4. US Presidential Election

Although the US presidential election is still some time away, people are already discussing its impact on the market. Traditionally, elections bring uncertainty, but also bring a lot of growth to the market.

Whether it is Biden and Harris, or Trump, who may return, both major candidates have shown a certain degree of support for the cryptocurrency market. Harris, in particular, has a more friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies, which has alleviated people's concerns about severe regulatory crackdowns.

However, a Trump win could further boost market confidence given the Trump administration's relatively laissez-faire approach to financial markets.

5. Market Phases/Cycles

Cryptocurrencies are cyclical and phased, and in fact, we see the same pattern with each halving. Historically, each Bitcoin halving has led to a similar pattern. We often see a sharp rise in prices within 12-18 months after the halving.

Therefore, if this cycle repeats, we will transition from the accumulation phase (smart money buying) to the growth phase.

6. Rate Cuts: Powell Hints at Rate Cuts in 2024

While rate cuts are generally seen as a bearish signal, the Fed’s current stance could paint a different picture for cryptocurrencies. Jerome Powell’s recent speech suggests that while there may be a few more small rate cuts in 2024, the overall economic outlook remains strong.

This creates a bullish environment for risk assets like Bitcoin, which tend to thrive when the economy is stable but traditional assets are underperforming.

A 50 basis point rate cut in 2024 could be a significant catalyst for a cryptocurrency bull run. Historical data shows that BTC rises sharply when interest rates are lowered and liquidity increases.

7. Global Liquidity Index

There is a direct correlation between global liquidity and Bitcoin price movements.

For every 10% increase in liquidity, Bitcoin rises by about 90%.

Recently, global liquidity has been climbing steadily, with a 5% increase in the summer months. With liquidity expected to increase further, this could drive Bitcoin's next big rally.

8. Inflation and the Fed

One ​​of the key factors driving cryptocurrency prices over the past few years has been inflation concerns. However, recent inflation data has been surprisingly good.

CPI readings are now at their lowest level since February 2021, and Powell himself has noted a significant drop in inflationary pressures.

Lower inflation rates mean more disposable income for investors and higher risk appetite, both of which are good for the cryptocurrency market.

9. Coinbase

Coinbase is a good indicator of current retail interest in cryptocurrency.

When Coinbase entered the App Store top 50, we knew retail was back. Currently, it is ranked 463rd, but as the price rises, expect it to climb quickly.

10. FTX Expenses and Institutional Interest

FTX Repays $16 Billion in Cash to Creditors Many of the victims were participants in the cryptocurrency market, in fact, most of them were participants in the cryptocurrency market.

Therefore, there is a high probability that 60-70% of them will return to the market and bring a new round of liquidity influx. One of the most bullish indicators for cryptocurrency is institutional adoption. Recently, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management company, published a positive review of Bitcoin. In addition to other well-known companies such as Fidelity and Grayscale, more and more institutions are incorporating Bitcoin into their portfolios as a hedging and diversification tool. Institutional participation not only legitimizes cryptocurrency, but also brings trillions of dollars in potential capital. If more companies follow BlackRock’s lead, the next Bitcoin bull run could dwarf all previous ones.

Considering all the facts, the current situation is quite bullish and I don't foresee any further corrections.

Also, ETH is finally starting to show some strength. Altcoins are starting to rally. Therefore, there is a good chance that Q4 will see significant growth.

As always, be cautious and don't get overextended, but if there was ever a time to get excited about crypto, it's now.