Will Solana surpass Ethereum?

Source: Daoshuo Blockchain

At the end of the recent article, a reader left a message:

Can Ethereum still rise? I saw a point of view, EOS to ETH, and now there are more and more opinions that SOL surpasses ETH.

Indeed, in this wave of inscriptions, Solana’s popularity has risen very quickly, and even the currency price has soared into the sky like a rocket.

Compared with Solana’s performance, Ethereum is a bit embarrassed. When it comes to participating in inscriptions, Ethereum is actually a little later than Bitcoin. In my mind, it is the second public chain to be inscribed. And Solana is even later than Ethereum. But even though it was so late, once it entered the inscription ecology, its community quickly became active, allowing it to quickly catch up in popularity through the inscription ecology.

In addition to the inscription, recent topics and aspirations about DePIN have also made Solana popular.

It is precisely because it quickly captured these hot spots that Solana currently seems to have the momentum to surpass Ethereum.

But in the long run and fundamentally, I think the possibility of Solana surpassing Ethereum is very small.

Why?

I think there are two main key points:

The first is another point that I have often talked about: in terms of decentralization, Solana cannot compare with Ethereum.

Many people feel that this trait is hollow and has nothing to do with the performance and long-term development of a blockchain ecosystem. Therefore, many people don't care about it at all, and even think that it is too outdated to mention it now.

But in fact, this characteristic is very important, and it will play a decisive role in some key issues.

I still want to emphasize that as the infrastructure that carries all applications, the decentralization of the blockchain public chain cannot be questioned, because it ensures the neutrality and security of the infrastructure. Only when infrastructure is neutral and secure can it be inclusive of all applications and ecology, be fair and just, and be inclusive of all rivers and create miracles.

To a certain extent, this is the same as when people start a business and invest in an environment:

Some ecosystems are monopolized by a few people, and it seems that they are very efficient in doing things. Gao is very fast in getting things done, but its policies may change at a moment's notice, or even make a 180-degree turn. Some ecosystems are relatively legal and fair. It seems that the efficiency of its work is very low and the speed of its work is very slow, but its fundamental direction and fundamental policies will not change.

In normal times, people may not necessarily see the fundamental difference in the characteristics of these two ecologies. But once the first ecology monopolized by a few people suddenly makes a 180-degree turn under certain circumstances, all entrepreneurs and investors in it will immediately realize the fundamental problems of this ecology, and they will start to wonder. Leave this ecology without looking back and embrace an ecology that is relatively legal and fair.

And this departure may be forever and eternal.

Once this extreme situation occurs, everyone will immediately realize: If you plan to start a business and invest in the long term, you still have to choose an ecosystem that, although it seems relatively inefficient and slow, is relatively legal and fair. .

This is the difference between decentralized Ethereum and centralized Solana.

After this round of SOL currency prices soared, someone came up with this view:

Solana is backed by Wall Street. Wall Street will definitely praise Solana.

From this point of view, it seems that with the power of a consortium, such a centralized system can create miracles and allow a centralized system to stand up in a decentralized ecosystem.

I don’t agree with this view.

From this point of view, it still has a superstitious belief in big consortiums, big capital, and big institutions.

If nothing else, this round of the rise of the inscription ecology has allowed us to see the power of the community and retail investors again. This is not the first time that communities and retail investors have created miracles. In the development of the crypto world today, after witnessing the miracles created by communities and retail investors one after another, there are still people who are so superstitious about those monopolies.

Note: I am not saying that those monopolies are not important, but that in the encryption world, their importance is not that excessive at all, and they are not worthy of worship at all.

Institutions and monopolies are profit-seeking. Which ecology will bring long-term and stable returns, they will go to that ecology. Even if an ecosystem is supported by them, if it does not develop well in the future, they will still abandon it mercilessly.

So in the end, it comes down to the fundamentals, and it still depends on whether an ecology can develop well. Whether an ecosystem can develop well is definitely not decided by capital alone. Therefore, this view exaggerates capital and ignores other more important factors.

The second key point is that Ethereum is still the most powerful both in terms of ecology and developers. And the role of smart contracts cannot be replaced.

As for the ecology and developers of Ethereum, I believe everyone has already seen it, and there is no need for me to repeat it.

As for the fact that smart contracts cannot be replaced, this topic seems to be rarely discussed.

In this round of craze, although inscription has emerged as a new technology, it always has a fundamental problem: that is, if inscription wants to realize the functions of expansion and contract, it will most likely only be able to Use offline methods.

Take Bitcoin inscription as an example. To implement the functions of extensions and contracts, it must either be a second-layer extension or use something similar to an indexer. The second layer of expansion returns to smart contracts. The indexer now has a centralized security risk. To solve this risk, I am afraid that a solution similar to the blockchain will eventually be used.

So no matter how inscriptions develop, it is impossible to replace smart contracts. Once we return to smart contracts, it will be difficult to challenge Ethereum’s monopoly.

In fact, there are many Bitcoin extensions and contract solutions that cross-chain inscriptions to Ethereum for various operations.

So overall, with the support of current hot spots, it is normal for Solana to have such popularity, but in the long run I do not think it will surpass Ethereum.