Will Musk be Trump's first move after taking office?

Author: Cora Xu, Source: Silicon Rabbit

In Silicon Valley, few people dare to bet their reputation and resources like Elon Musk to support a presidential candidate so wholeheartedly.

Fortunately, in the election of the 47th President of the United States, this minister of protection successfully sent Donald Trump to the presidential "throne". Trump also "rewarded" him on election night, unabashedly praised and thanked Musk, and reserved a five-minute "exclusive advertising space" for SpaceX.

Now that the overall situation of the US election has been determined, why is Musk, the number one hero, so anxious to push Trump to power? What benefits will he gain from this election battle? Will Trump's inauguration really give Musk a "get out of jail free card"?

After the uproar, we may be able to look more calmly at how this Silicon Valley superstar carefully planned, invested fully, and cautiously concluded the most crazy election investment. This election also allows us to once again see Musk's sensitive investment sense and accurate judgment ability in many fields such as politics, economy, and society.

Musk stands for Trump in Pennsylvania. (Photo source: Associated Press)

01.Musk, who is in a dilemma, urgently needs a new president

In the latest Forbes Global Billionaires List 2024, Musk has secured the second place in the world and the first place in the United States with $195 billion.

1. Tesla, the self-driving car: safety supervision may be relaxed, and the commercialization process of Robotaxi will be accelerated

First of all, Tesla is the most critical. As the former big brother of self-driving, Tesla has been investigated by the U.S. Department of Justice and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for its self-driving and fully self-driving functions, involving 11 accidents and 765,000 vehicles.

At the same time, Tesla is also caught up in disputes such as union struggles initiated by the National Labor Relations Board and racial discrimination initiated by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. It can be seen that Tesla has always received high attention from the US government and its development has been regulated in many aspects.

In addition, the Biden administration rarely supported Tesla. Tesla was not on the list of difficult-to-support new energy subsidy policies in the United States, nor was it invited to the US Electric Vehicle Summit held by the White House. It can be seen that the relationship between Musk and the US government is poor.

On the other hand, whether it is Tesla's autonomous driving business or its newly released Robotaxi, further expansion is inseparable from the support of the US government.

2. Commercial airline SpaceX: Trump helps the Mars immigration plan, and Starlink's business expansion speed is accelerated

Commercial airline SpaceX also encountered the problem of strict government supervision. The U.S. Department of Justice is suing SpaceX, accusing it of discriminating against refugees in the recruitment process; a regional office of the National Labor Relations Board has complained that it illegally fired eight employees; the Federal Aviation Administration is imposing a civil fine of $633,009 on SpaceX; the Federal Communications Commission voted against including SpaceX's Starlink in the rural broadband plan and providing financial support... "They took all the contracts they could get." Musk once mentioned angrily in an interview. It can be seen that SpaceX's current business growth is inseparable from the U.S. government's relaxation of regulations, especially the Starlink multi-state pilot and the expansion of service scope. In terms of space exploration, Musk has always had a "Mars dream", which requires more cooperation with the U.S. government. He once said in an interview that his dream of emigrating to Mars can only be realized under Trump's administration. Trump also responded positively: "I hope he can send a rocket to Mars. He promised to land on Mars before the end of my term."

3. Social Media X: Transferring content supervision rights to enterprises and reaffirming the importance of freedom of speech

During the Biden period, the main points of contention between the US government and Musk's social media X were the rights of freedom of speech and how the government regulates platform content, as well as its influence on decision-making. Biden also hopes to promote the reform of Section 230 of the United States to curb illegal speech.

4. Brain-computer interface Neuralink: FDA approval is accelerated, and new products are launched online faster

As an innovative invasive brain-computer interface project, the US government has always maintained a comprehensive and strict review of Neuralink.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture launched an investigation into Neuralink's animal experiments to determine whether the relevant behavior meets the minimum standards set by the Animal Welfare Act; the U.S. Department of Transportation also launched an investigation into Neuralink at the request of the Animal Welfare Initiative because the company's test materials were transported in a "careless and unsafe manner", which may involve the risk of spreading dangerous pathogens; the American animal protection organization PCRM filed a lawsuit against Neuralink, accusing it of "abusing" monkeys...

5. Tunnel company The Boring Company: "Super High-speed Rail" construction restarts to create an underground highway transportation system

You may find it hard to imagine that as one of Musk's "most boring companies", The Boring Company has only operated 2.4 miles of tunnels in 7 years. All this is a far cry from Musk's original idea of ​​building a huge multi-station underground highway transportation system that allows driverless cars to take people to their destinations at 150 miles per hour. It can be said that The Boring Company complements Musk's Robotaxi plan and prepares for its infrastructure.

Therefore, compared with Musk's other companies, The Boring Company's business progress is more dependent on the support of the US government.

According to an investigation by foreign media NBC, Musk and his huge business empire have been involved in at least 19 regulatory or legal disputes with the Biden administration in recent years, 10 of which are still ongoing. Many projects have progressed more slowly under the close supervision of the Biden administration since 2022.

Tesla executives once called on their bosses to return to work at the company on X, implying that Musk has less energy in business operations. Now I think that maybe Musk sorted out all the problems of his companies and chose to start solving their biggest common problem - the US government.

02.ALL in the election

It is difficult to say when Musk started to lay out this election investment, but the earliest clue was Musk's acquisition of Twitter for $44 billion.

After all, the first thing that Boss Ma did after taking office was to unblock Trump's account. Many netizens analyzed that from here, Musk had laid the first step in the election investment.

It has to be said that in today's American society, social platform X (formerly Twitter) is still the main battlefield of the election. Musk's invitation to Trump to broadcast live on platform X also has a bit of a welcoming color.

But the moment when Musk really stood at the center of the election politics and decided to go all in was undoubtedly in July 2024, after Trump's shooting, when Musk publicly expressed his support for Trump as the next president.

If it is only to this extent, Musk's determination cannot be seen. After all, there are not a few Silicon Valley people who publicly support a presidential candidate. Musk's boldest step was to step onto the podium of Trump's rally.

At this point, Musk has tied his fate firmly to Trump. Even he himself said with a smile: "If Harris comes to power, I'm done. Do you think I can still see my children?"

In fact, in addition to Musk's support for Trump on the surface, Musk also used his personal resources to the extreme under the undercurrent and started this craziest investment.

The first is to spend money to build momentum for the "King of Understanding." Musk not only set up a political action committee, America PAC, to support Trump, but also donated at least $132 million to Trump's campaign team. Among them, Musk even provided $56 million to Trump and other Republicans.

The second is resource recommendation. For example, Musk and his close friend and senior investor Nelson Peltz once expressed their "loyalty" to Trump. They would convene influential business leaders across the United States with political allies to try to persuade them not to support the current President Biden. The effect is indeed remarkable. PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel and venture capitalist David Sacks are both friends of Musk. They publicly expressed their support for Trump during the campaign. Biden eventually withdrew from the presidential election and pushed Harris to run for office.

When seizing the support of the key swing state of Pennsylvania, Musk frequently held town hall meetings in the local area, personally promoted his key role in the election, and updated early voting data on the social media platform X, and posted election posts.

He also dispatched his think tank to help Trump's campaign in Pennsylvania, trying to use his rhetoric to encourage voters to support Trump. This also won the most critical 19 electoral votes for Trump to win the presidential election.

If we regard this election as Musk's investment project in Trump, then Musk may become a more ideal investor in many people's minds: supplying large amounts of funds, devoting all resources to support, using his own influence to build momentum, and providing think tanks to solve key problems, while not interfering with the Republican Party's policy proposals.

If you look closely at Musk, he is trapped in many corporate problems, bravely betting his entire fortune, and choosing to advance and retreat with Trump.

In addition, it is worth noting that Musk's seemingly all-in investment does not really leave him no way out.

His biggest way out is Harris. It can be seen that Harris has always adopted a more tolerant and listening attitude towards innovative technologies and innovative enterprises. In most cases, Harris is willing to balance regulation and innovative regulation, so even if Harris takes office, Musk should not be subject to stricter government regulation than during the Biden era.

03 Withdrawing Musk won the next 12 years

Silicon Valley giants, like start-ups, are also waiting for the shoe to land.

The return on this election investment may be higher than Musk expected.

Second, the Republican Party won a majority of seats in the Senate and the House of Representatives, which means that Trump also has a greater influence on legislation and has achieved the unity of executive and legislative powers.

Finally, the current justices in the Supreme Court are lifelong, and most of them are conservatives promoted by Trump during his term in office, almost equivalent to his own people.

Therefore, Trump's second term as president can be said to be in control of the three powers, with great influence and decision-making power.

Many people are optimistic that as long as Trump moves forward steadily, is re-elected for two terms, and then supports the next generation of Republican candidates to take office, the power of the Republican Party will be quite large in the next 12 years.

And all this, falls on Musk, or will leave a 12-year golden development period for his business empire. Coinciding with the vigorous development of major innovative technologies, the situation is very good.

The more you earn, the more careful you act. This is particularly evident in Musk after Trump announced his victory. As of press time, Musk has only congratulated Trump on his victory on his own platform and has not made any more comments. Compared with his boasting before the election, Musk has now hidden his achievements and fame and withdrawn.

But is Musk really free of conflict with Trump's new policy? Obviously not.

The first question is still about supervision. If, as Trump promised, Mr. Ma becomes the first minister of the National Efficiency Commission of the United States and cuts other corporate expenses, how will Musk supervise himself and how will he supervise other industries? This is obviously not an easy question to answer. Musk did not even shy away from potential conflicts of interest, but publicly expressed his hope that Trump would directly help his business by cutting regulations.

On the other hand, Musk's overseas business investments and Trump's tariff policy have conflicts of interest, which is also one of the hidden dangers for the development of his business.

Trump obviously will not let Musk do whatever he wants, and even before the election, he had said that Musk would become his "minister of cost cutting" but "would not enter the cabinet." Musk had anticipated this in the interview, saying: "The White House will adopt different policies based on different people."