With large-scale unlocking imminent, will WLD continue its downward trend and fall below one dollar?

 Author: WolfDAO Source: X, @10xWolfdao

WLD once soared to a high of $11.72, but the price of the currency has fallen all the way under the pressure of heat dissipation and unlocking. It has now dropped to around $2, and there is no sign of stopping the decline. The community is currently in mourning and is very pessimistic about the outlook.

In May 2023, due to its strong association with OpenAI, WLD (Worldcoin) came into our view. We collected a lot of related information and compiled it into a research report! Of course, we will not make a specific research report data report today; after experiencing a large roller coaster, we plan to combine the data statistics at that time and the recent progress of Worldcoin to give our understanding.

Project Overview

Worldcoin is a token distribution project that uses blockchain, biology, statistics and other technologies for free. It is a concrete manifestation of UBI (Universal Basic Income) economics. Worldcoin coordinates the interests of all participants and is committed to distributing most tokens to new users as an incentive to join the network to achieve widespread adoption.

Open Ai founder Sam Altman is the co-founder of Worldcoin. Perhaps Ai and Worldcoin are both manifestations of his vision of the future world.

Team and investment and financing history

The founding team members of the project include Sam Altman, CEO of Open AI. WLD's historical performance is also usually highly correlated with the trends of ChatGPT and Altman's speeches.

• Alex Blania worked as a researcher at California Institute of Technology from 2019 to 2020; from 2020 to date, he has served as CEO and co-founder of Tools for Humanity, the operating company of Worldcoin.

• Sam Altman Sam Altman is the founder and CEO of OpenAI, co-founder of Worldcoin, and president of Y Combinator from 2014 to 2019.

In terms of investment and financing, Worldcoin has experienced three rounds of financing, including top investment institutions in the industry such as A16Z, Coinbase Ventures and DCG, with a total financing amount of US$240 million, and the latest round of financing valuation is US$3 billion.

WLD (Worldcoin) investment and financing history

Market data performance

Let's take a look at the performance of Woldcoin market data

WLD & BTC Price Linkage Comparison Source:TradingView

The current price of WLD is 2.227, with a market value of 550 million US dollars and a FDV of 22.2 billion US dollars. The price of the coin has fallen by more than 80% from the highest point of 11.72, and has fallen by 53% in the past month. Its performance is not only far worse than BTC, but also worse than most altcoins.

WLD Position price distribution of chips Source:Dune(Killer_whales_dao_levilin2008)

On-chain data shows that a large number of chips are distributed between 2.3-2.5, and there are also a large number of locked-in chips above $6.6. According to the current price, most of the addresses on the chain are in a floating loss state. The price will face great resistance to breaking through upward, but there is strong support at the current position in the short term.

Massive unlocking increases the pressure of dumping

Token economics distribution model

• Community 75%: Most of these tokens will be allocated to users; some tokens will be used for ecosystem funds and network operations, and the Worldcoin Foundation will gradually decentralize the tasks of token management decision-making governance in accordance with its articles of association and.

• Initial development team 9.8%: Provide services to the Worldcoin Foundation and operate the World App.

• TFH investors 13.5%: TFH investors provide funds to enable TFH to support the project. In particular, TFH developed a biometric imaging device, the first version of the protocol and the world application, as well as the first wallet of the ecosystem.

• Reserve 1.7%: used to meet the future needs of TFH.

WLD Token Distribution Model Source: Wolrdcoin White Paper Compilation

Token Circulation and Unlocking Supply Plan

To facilitate the scale that Worldcoin will achieve in the next few years, the Worldcoin Community may need a large number of tokens, possibly within the first few years after launch. This is why the 4.0B WLD of community tokens were unlocked within the first three years. However, the speed at which these tokens enter the circulating supply is controlled by governance, which depends on the growth rate of the network.

• TFH Investor Tokens: Tokens allocated to TFH Investors will be contractually locked for 12 months upon the exercise of their respective token warrants by those investors, and then unlocked evenly on a daily basis over the next 24 months.

• Initial Development Team Tokens: Tokens that have been allocated to past and current team members will be contractually locked for 12 months upon launch, and then unlocked evenly on a daily basis over the next 24 months.

• TFH Reserve: Tokens allocated to the TFH Reserve will be contractually locked for at least as long as the lock-up period applicable to TFH Investors and Team Members. The exact lock-up period will depend on when those tokens were allocated.

WLD unlocking supply curve Source:Wolrdcoin White Paper Compilation

The total issuance of WLD tokens is 10 billion, and the current circulation accounts for only 16% of the total tokens. A large number of tokens are still in the state of being unlocked. Currently, the main unlocked tokens are owned by the community, with a daily unlocking volume of 3.2 million. According to the current price, it is about US$7.13 million, accounting for 1.29% of the total circulating market value.

Source:token.unlocks

According to token.unlocks, after June 24, WLD will face a larger daily token unlocking, totaling 6.62 million tokens, which is 16.28 million US dollars at the market price, accounting for about 10% of the past 24h trading volume. The unlocking amount of 16 million US dollars is even higher than Solana. Considering that the circulating market value of WLD is less than 1/100 of Solana and the trading volume is less than 1/10, such a huge amount of token unlocking can be said to be. Under the premise of lack of market liquidity, facing such a large selling pressure, it is completely expected that the price will break through one dollar. At present, there are voices in the community calling for the modification of the unlocking rules, but the possibility of realization should be small.

Source:CoinGecko

The price of the coin once rose to a high of $11.72 due to the previous AI craze, but since the token itself has no actual usage scenarios and a large number of tokens to be unlocked, the price of the coin has been falling since the heat dissipated. It has now fallen to around $2 and there is no sign of stopping the decline. If the subsequent unlocking of 7.6 million per day (the next unlocking time is July 24, 2024) is realized, it is completely foreseeable that the price of the coin will break through one dollar.

On-chain data is worrying

Source:Coincarp.com

According to Cryptorank data, the top 10 addresses of WLD account for 91.19%, and the top 100 addresses account for 99.15%. Affected by the proportion of community tokens and investor allocation, token distribution is very concentrated, with obvious strong control characteristics, and the currency price is likely to be manipulated.

WLD (Worldcoin) New  / Active Address Changes  Source:IntoTheBlock

WLD (Worldcoin) Active Addresses and Price Fluctuations Source:IntoTheBlock

The AI ​​track narrative has been cold overall

Similar to the situation of WLD, most AI concept tokens have generally fallen by more than 30% in the past month. The previously popular AI concepts (computing services, AI computers, etc.) could not be implemented, and the projects themselves could not even generate enough business income to maintain their own operations, let alone feedback to investors. With no one willing to take over, the price of the currency fell all the way.

Take the previously popular computing service platform io.net as an example. In fact, the GPU utilization rate is very low, a large number of resources are idle, with a circulating market value of 200 million US dollars, more than 2 billion FDV, and an average daily network income of less than 500 US dollars. Even such data is already relatively advanced in a number of AI tracks, which shows the severity of the bubble in the entire track.

WLD is a public welfare project with no self-consistent business model. It relies heavily on the popularity of AI and the strong appeal of Sam Altman. The concept of public welfare + crypto is indeed eye-catching at first glance, but past experience has repeatedly proved that non-financial applications are basically not feasible in the field of crypto, and the long-term future of WLD is not optimistic.

Summary

WorldCoin's UBI vision is grand, but its investors in the crypto field are not its audience. Due to its special connection with OpenAI, the new GPT release may have a certain boost to the WLD coin price, but under the multiple negative effects of the overall lack of liquidity in the coin circle + WLD's continued unlocking and weak narrative, its coin price still has a very large downward space.

Since the current market price has already reflected the negative impact of unlocking, the price may remain at a certain level in the short term, but in the long run, if the project party does not take positive measures or the external market environment does not improve, it is entirely possible for WLD to break 1.