OTC Weekly Trading Insights (03/27/2025)
Top Interest of the WeekOrca ($ORCA), a leading decentralized exchange on the Solana network, experienced a remarkable 270% surge in its price within just one day. This spike was accompanied by a trading volume that surpassed 180% of its market capitalization, highlighting strong trading interest in the token. Over the last two years, both the trading volume and the total value locked (TVL) in the Orca protocol have consistently grown, attracting the attention of investors.In contrast, Bounce ($AUCTION) has faced notable price volatility in the past two weeks. A whale investor began purchasing $AUCTION when its price was below $20 and later withdrew 2 million AUCTION from the exchange, resulting in a significant reduction in supply. Following this withdrawal, the price of $AUCTION soared to over $60. The whale then returned the asset to the exchange to secure profits. Amid this fluctuating trading landscape, demand for the token through over-the-counter (OTC) transactions has surged.Sui ($SUI), a layer-1 blockchain utilizing the Move smart contract programming language, was one of the top performers in terms of price last year. Recently, $SUI experienced a 10.3% increase in value, driven by news of Canary Capital's application to launch a spot crypto ETF for Sui.Overall MarketSource: TradingViewThe above chart is the BTC price in the daily candle chart at the log scale.Our analysis from the previous week indicated that the price of BTC is likely to keep oscillating between the upper level of 90k and the lower level of 77k. While the overall risk sentiment has improved following the Federal Reserve's scaleback on its quantitative tightening measures, concerns about the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US government persist. As shown in the chart above, BTC is on an upward trajectory within its upward channel. However, our team has noticed some signs of weakness in the bullish momentum. Following an initial surge in price due to the QT scaleback, the market failed to maintain that momentum on Thursday, resulting in a drop from $87k to $83.6k. After a relatively quiet weekend, buyers began to push the price up again on Monday morning in Asia. Unfortunately, significant sell orders were positioned just above the $88,500 mark, which gradually decreased to $87,800 over three days. Our analysis revealed that BTC has been forming lower highs and lower lows since being rejected at the $88,500 level.With the effective date for the tariffs approaching on April 2, we expect the risk sentiment to remain neutral, leading BTC to continue its sideways movement until there are notable developments on the macroeconomic front.Our analysis indicates that the cryptocurrency sector is currently experiencing a period of stagnation, with the prices of Bitcoin and other crypto assets being significantly affected by broader macroeconomic conditions. However, there is a silver lining: the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is actively working to resolve a number of lawsuits involving various crypto-related projects and companies, which could pave the way for a more stable environment. Furthermore, the U.S. Senate has recently taken a significant step by voting 70-28 to repeal a controversial IRS regulation that would have required decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms to collect and report taxpayer information, easing some regulatory burdens on the industry. Looking to the future, we remain optimistic about the cryptocurrency landscape and expect to see continued innovations. In particular, we are excited about the potential for advancements in the real-world assets (RWAs) and decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN), which we believe will be pivotal in driving the next wave of innovation.Options MarketThe above chart is the at-the-money implied volatility for BTC options with various tenors.Following the Federal Reserve's recent decision to reduce its quantitative tightening measures, we have observed a notable decline in implied volatilities (IVs) across multiple time frames. This decrease in IVs indicates the market is pricing a relatively stable period on BTC price after the dot plot suggests that the officials remain two rate cuts in 2025. Currently, the IVs for options expiring in both 7 days and 30 days have reached their lowest points in the last four months. Our team is confident that this market environment offers a prime opportunity for options traders to consider long volatility positions, enabling them to capitalize on the advantageous conditions that have arisen. Options traders can deploy straddle and strangle strategies to trade on volatility while being delta neutral.Our Option RFQ platform empowers traders to seize these opportunities with ease and efficiency. Offering a wide array of strategies—from vanilla call and put options to advanced plays like Call Spreads, Put Spreads, Calendar Spreads, Diagonal Spreads, Straddles, and Strangles—the platform delivers competitive pricing and seamless execution. Its intuitive interface lets you pick your instrument and get an instant quote, simplifying the process and enabling you to act swiftly on market conditions. Whether you’re hedging or speculating, this tool enhances your ability to navigate the options market with confidence.Binance users can access our Options RFQ platform via: https://www.binance.com/en/vip-portal/OTC-trading-platform?ref=OTC-OptionFor more details, you can also check the FAQ page for Options RFQ: https://www.binance.com/en/support/faq/detail/6d3a80c6574f482eb45457eac64bbff6Macro at a glance Last Thursday (25-03-20)The Bank of England decided to keep its interest rate at 4.50% during its March meeting, a move that was widely expected by market participants. In its announcement, the central bank voiced worries about the UK economy grappling with uncertainties tied to global trade and the risk of domestic stagnation.In the United States, initial jobless claims for the previous week stood at 223,000, with the prior figure adjusted upward from 220,000 to 221,000. This information indicates that the US labour market continues to show a degree of stability.On Monday (25-03-24)The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the US is expected to reach 49.8 in March, significantly below the anticipated 51.9 and February's figure of 52.7. In contrast, the S&P Global Services PMI is forecasted at 54.3, well above the predicted 51.2 and February's 51.0. The robust Services PMI indicates that the US economy remains in a strong position, easing concerns about a potential recession.On Tuesday (25-03-25)The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Bank of Japan indicates an annual increase of 2.2%, consistent with the figure reported in February.In March, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 92.9, down from 100.1 in February. This result was below the anticipated 94.2, implying a decline in consumer confidence among US citizens regarding their spending habits. Such a trend may result in decreased market demand, potentially alleviating inflationary pressures in the United States.On Wednesday (25-03-26)In February, the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a monthly increase of 0.4%, slightly below the anticipated 0.5%. This resulted in an annual growth rate of 2.8%, which is lower than the expected inflation rate of 3.0%. The decline in the inflation rate has eased some of the Bank of England's concerns, raising the possibility of a rate cut by the BoE later this year. US durable goods orders are expected to show a monthly growth of 0.9% in February, an improvement compared to the predicted 1.1% decline.Later this week, attention in the market will turn to the US PCE price index data scheduled for release on Friday. This information is crucial for the Federal Reserve as it assesses inflation, significantly influencing the probability of interest rate cuts by the Fed later this year.Convert Portal Volume ChangeThe above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Last week, the cryptocurrency market experienced a rebound, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading above $85,000 and Solana (SOL) surpassing $140. There was significant trading interest in Binance Coin (BNB) and tokens within the BNB ecosystem, particularly DEX tokens, in the week before. Last week, the focus of the market shifted back to meme trading on the Solana network, which increased demand for Solana ($SOL) and DEX tokens associated with its ecosystem.In the Solana sector, robust trading demand resulted in a 67.3% increase in trading volume. Our desk observed a general uptick in volume for tokens within the Solana sector, with Orca ($ORCA) experiencing heightened demand last week following a price surge.In the Metaverse sector, trading volume surged by 49.9% last week, primarily driven by market interest in BurgerCities ($BURGER). The price of $BURGER experienced significant volatility, including a sharp decline of 74.1%.In the DeFi sector, trading volume rose by 30.0%, largely attributed to the strong demand for Orca ($ORCA).Why trade OTC? Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. Email: trading@binance.com for more information.Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!
