According to Odaily, JPMorgan has highlighted in a research report that the so-called 'devaluation trade' involving gold and Bitcoin is expected to persist as investors brace for ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. The bank noted that as investors increasingly seek tools to hedge against geopolitical risks and inflation, gold and Bitcoin have structurally become more significant components of investment portfolios. This trend is supported by record capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market in 2024. JPMorgan explained that the 'devaluation trade' refers to the growing demand for gold and Bitcoin driven by various factors, including structurally higher geopolitical uncertainty since 2022, ongoing uncertainty about long-term inflation prospects, and concerns over 'debt devaluation' due to persistently high government deficits in major economies.

According to Odaily, Tony Stillo, Director of the Canada Economics Department at Oxford Economics, has indicated that the agenda of Canada's Conservative Party could significantly influence the country's economic prospects from 2025 onwards. This comes as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has decided to resign and has requested Governor General Mary Simon to prorogue Parliament, allowing the Liberal Party to select a new leader. Stillo suggests that a federal election might be held in May, with polls indicating a potential majority win for the Conservatives. The party is expected to focus on balancing the budget and repaying national debt. However, their plan to abolish the federal carbon tax is seen as economically neutral, as it would lower gasoline prices immediately but also end carbon rebates.

According to Odaily, JPMorgan's trading team has indicated that despite increasing risks associated with the strong rise in the stock market, the likelihood of a bear market downturn remains minimal in the context of robust economic growth. The team, led by Global Market Intelligence Head Andrew Tyler, noted in a report to clients on Monday that after the S&P 500 Index rose by more than 20% for two consecutive years, the U.S. stock market might experience a correction of 4%-5% or even 10%. However, with GDP growth above trend levels, the bull market remains intact.

According to Odaily, Nasdaq has submitted a request to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to increase the position limit for BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) from 25,000 shares to 250,000 shares. This change is pending SEC approval. The position limit refers to the maximum number of shares a single investor or institution can hold in the ETF. The Director of Bitwise Alpha Strategies commented that, given the rising trading volume of the ETF, it would be reasonable to raise the position limit to at least 400,000 shares. The request from Nasdaq and BlackRock is considered justified and supported by factual evidence.

According to Odaily, MicroStrategy is planning to raise up to $2 billion by issuing preferred stock as part of its '21/21' strategy, which involves selling $42 billion worth of stocks and fixed-income securities. Mark Palmer, a stock analyst at Benchmark, noted that by adopting a perpetual preferred stock strategy, MicroStrategy could attract institutional investors such as insurance companies, pension funds, and banks. These entities typically prefer assets with fixed dividends and relatively low volatility. Unlike bonds, perpetual preferred stocks do not have a maturity date or mandatory redemption schedule, allowing for indefinite fixed dividend payments as long as the issuing company remains operational. Benchmark has reiterated its 'buy' rating for MicroStrategy's stock, maintaining a target price of $650.

According to Odaily, CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan suggested in a January 6 article that the bull market, which began in January 2023, is likely to reach its cyclical peak by the first quarter of 2025, or at the latest, by the second quarter. The article noted that with a significant influx of new investments and additional funds from existing investors, it is reasonable to expect that the market is currently in the later stages of this cycle. Consequently, substantial increases in Bitcoin and altcoins remain anticipated. However, from a conservative standpoint and considering risk management, caution is advised.

CryptoQuant 分析师 Crypto Dan 在 1 月 6 日的文章中表示，始于 2023 年 1 月的牛市很可能在 2025 年第一季度或最迟在第二季度达到周期性高峰。该文章称：“随着大量新投资的涌入以及现有投资者的额外资金，我们可以合理地预期市场目前正处于本轮周期的后期阶段。”该帖子称：“因此，比特币和山寨币的大幅上涨预期仍然值得期待。尽管如此，从保守的角度来看，并考虑到风险管理，还是建议谨慎行事。”

Cameron 和 Tyler Winklevoss 领导的 Gemini Trust 同意支付 500 万美元，以了结美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）因其向监管机构做出的误导性陈述而提起的诉讼。在双方周一签署的“拟议同意令”中，该公司同意和解，但既不承认也不否认该机构投诉中的指控。 CFTC 于 2022 年 6 月起诉 Gemini 做出“重大事实的虚假或误导性陈述”。该机构表示，Gemini 在 2017 年 7 月至 2017 年 12 月左右期间向 CFTC 做出了这些陈述，当时该公司正在接受比特币期货合约评估。该机构在 2022 年表示，Gemini 涉嫌就该公司拟议的比特币期货合约是否“容易受到操纵”发表了这些声明。

MicroStrategy 计划通过发行优先股筹集最多 20 亿美元资金，推进其“21/21”计划，即出售价值 420 亿美元的股票和固定收益证券。Benchmark 股票分析师马克·帕尔默(Mark Palmer)表示，通过转向永久优先股策略，MicroStrategy 可以吸引保险公司、养老基金和银行等机构投资者。这些实体通常青睐股息固定且波动性相对较低的资产，与债券不同，永久优先股没有到期日或强制赎回时间表，而是只要发行公司仍在运营，就会无限期地支付固定股息。 Benchmark 重申对 MicroStrategy 股票的“买入”评级，并维持 650 美元的目标价。

根据一份公开的监管文件，纳斯达克已经向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了申请，要求将贝莱德现货比特币 ETF （IBIT）的持仓上限（position limit）从 25,000 份提高到 250,000 份。需要注意的是，这个申请还需要 SEC 的批准才能生效，position limit 指的是单一投资者或机构可以持有的该 ETF 的最大份额。 Bitwise Alpha Strategies 主管对此表示：“考虑到该 ETF 的交易量不断上升，至少应该将持仓上限提高到 400,000 份才算合理。纳斯达克和贝莱德的诉求是合理的，有事实依据支持。”

MicroStrategy 在 2025 年伊始宣布将在 2024 年最后两天购买新的 BTC。

现货比特币 ETF 净流入量超过 700 亿美元，稳定币市场突破 5000 亿美元，监管顺风和人工智能融合是伯恩斯坦分析师对 2025 年的预期。

从数据驱动的角度探索比特币 2025 年的潜力，分析 MVRV Z 分数、Pi 周期和宏观经济趋势等关键指标，以洞察未来一年的前景。

现在的加密行业也处于一个不确定的阶段，未来有许多一堆可能性会共存。而只有当市场变动或者外部因素介入时，这些可能性才会变成一个明确的现实。

自 12 月中旬以来，Tether USDT 的交易量已蒸发 1000 亿美元，但 Matrixport 表示，“现在看跌可能为时过早”。

随着抽象层简化用户的交互，自主交易代理管理投资组合，以及AI驱动的dApp优化用例，我们正得见新时代的曙光。

今日晚间推荐阅读：1.Swarms遭AI16Z创始人Fud AI16Z和Swarms谁是AI Agent的未来？2.Vitalik最新文章：一年之后再审视d/acc；12张图告诉你：Solana建设者们为何选择Solana？

发行代币曾经很简单：你只需在以太坊上部署它，那里的所有活动都在进行——用户、交易者、资本和流动性。如今，形势复杂得多。

Eliza是区块链AI Agent的当下，而Swarms则是AI Agent发展的未来

Hong Kong police arrested 31 people after dismantling a deepfake romance scam that swindled over HK$34 million from victims in Taiwan, Singapore, and Malaysia. The criminals used AI-generated profiles to trick people into investing in fake cryptocurrency platforms.