Bitcoin (BTC) price rallies tend to follow a familiar script — and historical data shows that whenever two specific conditions align, BTC sees near-parabolic gains of 50% or more. With upcoming speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and key U.S. retail sales reports ahead, Bitcoin could be setting the stage for another powerful breakout.Key Takeaways:Bitcoin rallies 50–84% when retail sales beat expectations and crypto leverage is low, combined with hawkish Fed signals.Three past rallies — in 2021, 2023, and 2024 — followed this exact pattern.Upcoming macro events, including the June 18 Fed meeting and May U.S. retail data on June 17, could trigger the next surge.Bitcoin Gains 84% in Early 2024 After Classic Pattern EmergesBetween Jan. 25 and March 13, 2024, Bitcoin surged 84%, climbing from $40,000 to $73,500. This rally came shortly after:Low perpetual futures funding rates (4% annualized), indicating reduced leverage.Strong U.S. retail sales for December 2023 (+0.6% vs. 0.4% forecast).Jerome Powell’s Jan. 31 speech, which took a hawkish stance and dismissed near-term rate cuts.This trio of catalysts sparked a seven-week rally as traders shifted from cautious accumulation to aggressive long positions.Similar Rallies in 2023 and 2021 Prove the PatternJanuary 2023: 50% RallyFrom Jan. 3 to Feb. 20, 2023, Bitcoin jumped 50%, rising from $16,700 to $25,100. Key catalysts:Funding rates near zero surged to 50% in four days.January retail sales exceeded expectations (+3% vs. 1.9% forecast).Powell’s Jan. 10 speech at Sveriges Riksbank emphasized tighter monetary policy.July 2021: 76% RallyFrom July 20 to Sept. 7, 2021, BTC rallied 76%, rebounding from sub-$30K levels. The setup included:A sharp rise in funding rates (0% to 37%).U.S. June retail sales unexpectedly rose +0.6%.Powell’s Aug. 27 Jackson Hole speech hinted at tapering asset purchases.Why This Combo WorksHistorically, Bitcoin's strongest rallies occur after a period of low leverage (which removes excess speculation), strong economic demand (signaled by retail sales), and hawkish Fed rhetoric (which reduces overoptimism). Together, they:Shake out weak hands.Encourage fresh capital inflow.Spark a rapid bullish pivot once risk appetite returns.Could a 2025 Bitcoin Rally Be Next?The next potential trigger window for a major Bitcoin rally includes:June 17: May retail sales data release.June 18: Fed interest rate decision and Powell’s press conference.July 15: June retail sales report.Aug. 21–23: Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.If leverage remains low and macro data surprises to the upside, history suggests Bitcoin could climb 50% or more, potentially targeting $140,000 by mid-Q3 2025.Bottom LineBitcoin price action may appear stuck near $95,000, but if the historical pattern holds, the convergence of low leverage, strong retail data, and hawkish Fed talk could soon unleash the next major breakout. As macro events unfold in June and July, all eyes will be on Powell's tone and U.S. retail strength — the same formula that triggered Bitcoin’s previous explosive runs, according to Cointelegraph.
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