近几个月来，比特币融资利率一直处于看跌趋势。它现在已经在中立和低于中立区域度过了最长的一段时期。但即使加密货币领域的价格和情绪正在回升，融资利率也拒绝反映这一趋势。相反，它又花了一周时间低于中性水平，描绘了一幅交易员目前如何看待市场的严峻图景。
比特币融资利率很好地表明交易员预计未来几天将出现某种形式的复苏。自 6 月市场崩盘以来，汇率一直没有出现任何显着的积极势头，表明比特币交易员预计未来不会出现复苏。
即使比特币的价格最近测试了 25,000 美元，也会出现这种情况。在上周，该数字资产的价值能够增加约 4,000 美元，即使是下跌，数字资产也创下了更高的低点。尽管如此，perp 交易员拒绝让步。
在这一点上，试图确定永久性交易者是否只是对市场感到厌倦，或者不期望 BTC 价格出现任何显着回升是一项艰巨的任务。大多数情况下，他们在市场上的敞口很短，因为他们继续回避多头交易。
BTC 融资利率仍低于中性 |来源：奥术研究
这导致比特币衍生品市场陷入困境。 BTC 资金利率在 8 月的前两周一直处于中性水平以下，例外情况是在本月剩余时间将继续保持这种水平。
在市场复苏之初，比特币持仓量急剧上升，表明轧空导致价格上涨。之后它一直保持着可观的地位，但上周出现了转机。
在比特币未平仓合约创下新高的地方，它在上周暴跌。这是竞争对手以太坊的未平仓合约历史上首次超过 BTC 的未平仓合约。与以太坊的 82 亿美元相比，以 BTC 计价的未平仓合约仅为 54 亿美元。
比特币未平仓合约的下降也恰逢资金利率低于中性水平。这表明虽然市场可能处于略微看涨的状态，但交易员预计价格会下跌。然而，转向以太坊表明，同一交易员预测合并后以太坊价格将大幅上涨。
来自 BBC 的精选图片，来自 Arcane Research 和 TradingView.com 的图表
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