即将到来的以太坊合并对加密市场的影响非常明显。它不仅影响了 ETH 的价格，还影响了该领域其他数字资产的价格，引发了上涨，使它们达到月度高点。不过，现货市场的影响并未结束。数据显示，整个期货市场都感受到了这种影响，价格一直在跌向历史低点。
与现货价格相比，以太坊期货的交易价格始终略有溢价。这不是问题，因为比特币等其他数字资产就是这种情况。然而，合并以意想不到的方式改变了事情。
上周的数据表明，以太坊期货的溢价相对于现货价格越来越大。第一个是在 Binance 加密货币交易所注意到的，该交易所的期货周一以 5% 的折扣交易。它还传播到 FTX 等其他加密货币交易所，后者在这方面也出现了很大的折扣。
这不是期货第一次以低于现货的价格交易，但这是有史以来的最低价。 CME 也没有被排除在外，因为它看到以太期货自 2 月推出以来首次以低于现货价格的价格进行交易。
ETH 期货以历史新低的现货折扣交易 |来源：奥术研究
所有这一切都是由于整个加密空间主要平台的各种关闭而产生的。然而，围绕合并的预期进一步助长了火势，导致折扣比应有的幅度更大。
如上所述，期货和现货价格之间不断增加的折扣是合并的结果。更具体地说，它是投资者采用各种交易策略试图最大化收益的结果。
ETH 恢复至 1,800 美元上方 |来源：TradingView.com 上的 ETHUSD
以太坊从工作证明机制转向权益证明机制也有一些阻力。因此，有人尝试通过硬分叉来拆分链，并试图保留当前的 PoW 机制。硬分叉已经得到孙宇晨等知名人士的支持，预计会取得成功。
这与 2017 年宣布比特币现金硬分叉时发生的情况相同。在分叉之前，BTC 期货的交易价格比 Okcoin 的现货价格低 9%。但是一旦硬分叉完成，他们很快就恢复了。由于 ETH 看起来反映了相同的趋势，预计一旦实施硬分叉，期货价格将缩小差距。
来自 TIME 的特色图片，来自 Arcane Research 和 TradingView.com 的图表
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