比特币价格 每枚硬币仅略高于 20,000 美元——这对加密货币的大多数新手和长期持有者来说都是一个冲击。抛售使加密货币回到其生产成本，这在过去一直是底部。
在本文中，我们将仔细研究生产每个 BTC 的成本及其与价格行为的关系。我们还将研究为什么稀缺数字资产很可能在这样的水平上找到底部。
比特币不同于之前的任何其他资产，自从比特币诞生以来，整个行业的创建都希望模仿其网络的成功。投资者涌入山寨币，希望找到下一个比特币和利润。
加密货币依赖于能源密集型工作证明过程来生成新硬币。采矿并不便宜，否则每个人都会这样做。事实上，根据比特币专家 Charles Edwards 设计的生产成本指标，低端每个 BTC 的成本约为 20,260 美元。
相关阅读 |Coinbase 认为比特币创造者对企业构成风险，原因如下
不需要具有中本聪技能的数学家就知道这与当前价格相差仅几百美元。有趣的是，抛售直接落在了生产成本上。回过头来看，2018年12月、2020年3月等重要底部均触及下界。
该指标的高端约为 33,766 美元，一旦突破可能表明下行趋势已经结束。与黑色星期四类似，重新测试它更加看涨。
BTC生产成本指标可能触底|来源：TradingView.com 上的 BTCUSD
在经历了如此残酷的抛售之后，在比特币所面临的最悲观的宏观环境背景下，考虑触底，这似乎令人难以置信，甚至好得令人难以置信。但这种稀缺资产的基础建设行为是有原因的。
商品等稀缺资产往往会围绕生产成本建立基础并触底反弹。就连中本聪过去也讨论过这个，最早可以追溯到 2010 年 .引用这位神秘创始人的话说，“任何商品的价格都倾向于生产成本。如果价格低于成本，那么生产就会减慢。如果价格高于成本，就可以通过生产和销售更多产品来获利。”
相关阅读 |为什么比特币不需要马斯克、赛勒或其他任何人
中本聪描述的是 BTC 矿工遵循的收入模式。他们以尽可能有利可图的速度生产新硬币，并在价格偏离高于生产成本时出售。回到这样的水平，通常会清除市场上效率较低的运营，只留下适者。
BTC 矿工正在投降 |来源：TradingView.com 上的 BTCUSD
这就是比特币现在正在发生的事情吗？当只有最强者幸存时会发生什么？中本聪真的能提前这么早就预测到底部吗？
跟随推特上的@TonySpilotroBTC或加入 TonyTradesBTC 电报独家每日市场洞察和技术分析教育.请注意：内容是教育性的，不应被视为投资建议。
特色图片来自 iStockPhoto，图表来自 TradingView.com
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