作者：Jack Inabinet，Bankless；编译：邓通，金色财经
随着加密价格的上涨，这个周期BTC的表现十分出色！
自2022年11月FTX破产以来，比特币的主导地位（或其在加密行业总市值中的份额）已从两年前的40%稳步上升至60%，但当投资者最初拼凑唐纳德·特朗普11月6日当选的影响时，他们的脑海中浮现了山寨币。
这就是为什么你可以期待比特币在特朗普政府下的统治地位。
尽管唐纳德·特朗普对他打算在下一任总统任期内采取的加密货币友好政策的清晰度有限，但我们知道看涨的基本面有以下这些。
首先，在比特币 2024 大会上，特朗普在第一天就夸夸其谈地承诺解雇 SEC 主席加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler)，承诺让美国成为世界加密货币之都，并表示打算积累国家级 BTC 储备。
在上届特朗普政府期间，加密货币可能已被边缘化，但唐纳德此后接受了这项技术，并于 12 月推出了自己的 NFT 交易卡系列
最近，特朗普在 9 月份将自己定位为“World Liberty Financial”的创始人，这是一个即将推出（且尚未部署）的 DeFi 项目，据称是一个 Aave 存款前端，正在积极寻求获得认可的美国金融机构的投资。和未经制裁的国际投资者以换取不可转让的 WLFI 代币。
抛开对特朗普政府如何能够/将如何使加密货币受益的政策细节的担忧不谈，考虑到他的家族在 WLFI 中持有大量股份，美国下一任总统有不可否认的经济动机来制定或取消有利于该行业的法规。
虽然加密代币和区块链应用程序长期以来受到繁重的金融监管的阻碍，但许多行业参与者对未来四年的变化持乐观态度，预计特朗普政府将专门为加密项目制定各种强制豁免。
此外，考虑到共和党已经在国会获得了多数席位，一个统一的政府可能会将此类不执行政策编入立法，从而将其福利的期限延长到远远超出特朗普的任期。
假设特朗普信守竞选承诺，美国监管机构与加密行业之间的敌对关系将出现重大解冻。
这种缓解可能使许多不同类型的加密代币能够在国家证券交易所获得ETF上市，数字资产可用性的增加可能迫使人们购买更多种类的加密代币，而不仅仅是比特币。
更诱人的是，禁止注册金融机构（如银行）与未经许可的区块链技术互动的现有法规可能会被撤销。尽管从基本现金流的角度来看，许多加密代币似乎被高估，但该行业的价值取决于其增长前景，并且通过积极的监管，大规模采用可能最终会实现。
随着我们越来越接近特朗普的就职典礼，对未来一些模糊的政策变化将引发代币需求或加密货币使用的预期使每个代币合理化为以任何价格进行世界级购买。
如果所有国家、机构和个人都在特朗普政府领导下向美国提起诉讼并采用比特币储备，那么我们有理由假设比特币的市值会飙升至令人难以置信的高位。
但为什么止步于此呢？
投资者会不会开始效仿 ETH——第二大加密货币和 BTC 的通货紧缩替代品，为现有最广泛的链上经济提供动力？
难道预计激增的散户不会迁移到 L2 资产，比如 Base，甚至是那些在永续债券推动下获得更高回报前景的长尾资产吗？我有没有提到在这个场景中 Base 也有一个代币？
当距离全球赌场赌桌仅一步之遥时，哪个业内投机者不会在埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 一直以来最喜欢的模因币 DOGE 上投入一点现金呢？
由于特朗普政府的睁一只眼闭一只眼，加密货币似乎即将迎来一段幸福时期，让人想起 2017 年 ICO 狂热的鼎盛时期，当时 BTC 的主导地位因不受限制的乐观情绪不加区别地推高所有东西到非理性价格而下降。
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Catherine